We’ve got a packed slate of college hoops tonight! I’ve been ice cold in football, but my college basketball picks have been decent this season. My plays on VegasInsider.com have compiled a 35-30 record (54%, +148 or 1.48 units of profit).
Going back to the start of last season, my picks on VI are 164-131-1 (56%, +17.81 units), but that doesn’t include all my future plays on the Gators, including a 35/1 pick to win it all. I also had Walter Clayton at 6/1 to win Final Four MVP honors and UF to win the SEC Tournament at +310 odds.
Anyhow… here’s what I’ve got for tonight (all are 1-unit plays).
Ole Miss +3.5 vs. Auburn: Ole Miss (11-7 straight up, 6-12 against the spread) has come to life here recently with three straight wins both SU and ATS, including road scalps at Georgia and at Mississippi St. We’ve got a significant head-coaching advantage with Chris Beard over first-year HC Steven Pearl.
Auburn (11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS) is winless in three road games with a 1-2 spread record.
Texas Tech -125 on the money line at Baylor: Texas Tech (14-4 SU, 9-9 ATS) has won three games in a row and seven of its last eight. The lone defeat during that stretch was a 69-65 loss at Houston as a 7.5-point road underdog. The Red Raiders are off an impressive 84-71 win over BYU, improving their record to 6-4 against KenPom Top-100 opponents. Their losses this season have come at #7 Illinois (81-77), vs. #4 Purdue on a neutral court in the Bahamas, vs. #23 Arkansas on a neutral floor and at #5 Houston.
Baylor (11-6 SU, 7-9 ATS) is 4-6 against KenPom Top-100 competition. The Bears are mired in a 1-4 slump both SU and ATS in their last five games, including a 70-60 home loss vs. Iowa St., a 77-55 home loss vs. Houston and an 80-62 loss at KU.
SMU +1 at Wake Forest: SMU (13-5 SU, 8-10 ATS) is 6-5 against KenPom Top-100 opponents, including home wins over #57 Va. Tech, #36 North Carolina (by 14 points), #56 Butler and #87 Murray St. The Mustangs also have a road win at #83 Mississippi St. and a neutral-court win over #38 Texas A&M.
Wake Forest (11-7 SU, 7-11 ATS) is 8-3 SU and 3-8 ATS in 11 home games. The Demon Deacons are 3-7 in 10 games against KenPom Top-100 competition, including an 86-68 home loss vs. #58 Oklahoma, a 98-67 home loss vs. #12 Vandy and an 81-77 loss vs. #31 Miami.
Missouri pk ’em vs. Georgia: Missouri (13-5 SU, 8-10 ATS) is unbeaten in 11 home games with a 6-5 ATS record. We get the Tigers here in bounce-back mode after Saturday’s 78-70 loss at LSU. They’re 3-1 in their last four games against KenPom Top-45 competition, including home wins over #9 Florida and #33 Auburn, in addition to a win at #24 Kentucky.
Georgia (15-3 SU, 8-10 ATS) is 2-2 versus KenPom Top-45 foes this season.
Seton Hall +11.5 at St. John’s: Seton Hall (14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS) is 4-0 both SU and ATS in four road assignments this season, while St. John’s (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) is 8-2 SU and 4-6 ATS in 10 home contests. The Pirates have wins at #82 Kansas St. by a 78-67 score, at #66 Providence by a 72-67 count, at #120 Marquette by a 79-73 score and at #101 Georgetown by a 76-67 count. They’ve been underdogs five times this year, going 5-0 ATS with three outright wins, including an 85-74 win over #30 NC St. as 7.5-point underdogs at the Maui Classic in Hawaii.
Miami -11.5 vs. FSU: Miami (15-3 SU, 10-8 ATS) is unbeaten in 11 home games with 10 wins by double-digit margins and nine wins by 17 points or more. We get the Hurricanes in bounce-back mode here after Saturday’s 69-59 loss at #25 Clemson (using KenPom rankings, per usual).
FSU (7-11 SU, 8-10 ATS) is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in four road assignments. Regardless of home/away or neutral, the Seminoles have lost five games in a row and 10 of their last 12. Six of those losses have been by 13 points or more. In FSU’s last six losses on the road or on a neutral court, it has lost by margins of 36, 15, 8, 28, 13 and 8 points. Let’s fade the ‘Noles again tonight.