As of this morning, most betting shops had San Diego St. (17-5 straight up, 8-11-1 against the spread) installed as a 10-point road favorite at Air Force for tonight’s 10:30 p.m. Eastern tip in Mountain West Conference play. The total was 134 points, while the Falcons were +425 on the money line.
The ‘over’ has cashed in seven straight Air Force games and is on an incredible 12-1 run in its last 13 contests dating back to Dec. 3. Those 12 ‘overs’ have produced combined scores of 150, 155, 154, 148, 151, 147, 137, 148, 162, 149, 141 and 138 points.
That’s nine of the Falcons’ last 12 games that have had at least 147 combined points, which is 13 points higher that tonight’s total.
When we encouraged readers to tail us on ‘over’ 137 points for Wyoming at Air Force last Tuesday, the Cowboys went into Clune Arena and captured an 83-72 win that saw the 155 combined points soar ‘over’ the 137-point tally for an easy winner.
Although we didn’t get a write-up penned here at MajorWager on Saturday, we were once again back on the ‘over’ (132.5 points) for Air Force’s game Saturday at Boise St. The Broncos blasted the Falcons, 94-56, with the 150 combined points easily jumping ‘over’ the number with 3:56 remaining when BSU’s O’Mar Stanley hit a pair of free throws.
Air Force is ranked #28 nationally in 3-point accuracy, draining 37.4 percent of its attempts from downtown. However, the Falcons are also ranked #340 out of 363 Division-1 programs at defending the 3-point line, as opponents have buried 36.7 percent of their attempts from long distance.
According to KenPom, Air Force is ranked #263 in the country in defensive efficiency. The Falcons have given up 94, 83, 84 and 85 points to four of their last five foes.
The ‘over’ has hit in three consecutive games for San Diego St., including combined scores of 148, 150 and 146 points. The ‘over’ is 12-8 overall for the Aztecs, who have seen their games average combined scores of 143.5 points per game.
Brian Dutcher’s team is ranked #46 in the nation in offensive efficiency at KenPom. The Aztecs have scored at least 79 points in seven of their last 12 contests. They’ve scored 70, 91, 98 and 89 points in their last four trips to Colorado Springs to face Air Force.
PREDICTION: ‘OVER’ 133.5 points (Circa and South Point in Las Vegas as of 10:58 a.m. Eastern).