As of early Tuesday morning, most books had Nebraska (26-6 straight up, 17-15 against the spread) installed as a 13 or 13.5-point favorite vs Troy in Thursday’s first-round game of the 2026 NCAA Tournament at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The total was 137 or 137.5 points, while the Trojans were in the +650 to +760 range (FanDuel) on the money line.
The Cornhuskers, who are making their ninth NCAA Tournament appearance in program history, are the only school from a Power Conference that has never won a game in NCAA Tournament history. They’re the No. 4 seed in the East Region.
Fred Hoiberg’s team was the biggest story in college basketball after getting out to a 20-0 start this season. However, Nebraska has struggled to a 6-6 SU record and a 5-7 ATS mark in its last 12 games dating back to late January, including a 74-58 loss to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament last week.
Troy (22-11 SU, 17-14 ATS) won the Sun Belt Conference’s regular-season title and played its way into the NCAA Tournament with last Monday’s 77-61 win over Ga. Southern in the finals of the SBC Tourney. The Trojans easily took the money as 5.5-point favorites in
Pensacola.
Junior forward Thomas Dowd led the way with 23 points, 13 rebounds and three assists, hitting 8-of-12 field-goal attempts and 5-of-6 free throws. Center Jerrell Bellamy added 15 points, three boards, two steals and two assists.
Troy is 6-2 ATS with five outright wins in eight games as an underdog this season, going 2-0 ATS with one outright victory in a pair of double-digit underdog situations. The Trojans own a 79-69 win over Akron as 2.5-point road underdogs, an 86-85 win at UAB as 6.5-point road ‘dogs, a 64-61 win at Furman as 2.5-point road ‘dogs and a 108-107 double-overtime win at San Diego St. as 14.5-point road ‘dogs.
Two nights after beating the Aztecs, the Trojans played at USC as 18.5-point road underdogs. They were playing their fourth game in California in a seven-stretch.
Nevertheless, Scott Cross’s team found itself up 106-104 with the ball and less than 10 seconds remaining in triple overtime, but Troy committed a turnover that resulted in USC making a wild buzzer beater from deep to win, 107-106.
Cross has Troy back in the NCAA Tournament for a second straight season. In last year’s first-round game, Cross’s club trailed Kentucky 45-39 with 13 minutes left but eventually lost a 76-57 decision. The Trojans actually won the rebounding battle vs. UK, but they made only 35 percent of their field-goal attempts, 25 percent of their 3-pointers and 56 percent of their free throws.
Troy has six players back from that team. Dowd, who had 11 rebounds but didn’t score vs. Kentucky, averages 14.6 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 blocked shots and 1.3 steals per game this year. He’ll be looking to make amends for last season’s scoreless effort vs. UK.
Valdes has unique size and an excellent skill set for a point guard. The 6-foot-7, 235-pounder averages 15.0 points, 4.5 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. Valdes is joined in the backcourt by a pair of Campbell brothers that are a part of the ‘Ginger Clan.’ Both can play and shoot it from downtown.
Cooper Campbell averaged 12.8 points, 4.3 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 steals in 31 regular-season games. He hit 39.2 percent of his 3-balls and 82.7 percent of his free throws. Cobi Campbell averages 9.0 points and 1.1 SPG, draining 39.8 percent of his treys.
I like Troy regardless of whether Theo Seng plays or not. Seng (12.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG) has missed six straight games, but there’s lots of optimism that he’ll be able to return this week.
Seng has reportedly been practicing since March 13. On Sunday, Troy head coach Scott Cross told David Schultz of the Locked on Sun Belt podcast that Seng “is trending towards being able to play.”
Without Seng in the Sun Belt Tournament, Bellamy took full advantage of his increased playing time, averaging 18.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.0 blocked shots and 2.5 SPG. He had 22 points, six blocked shots, four rebounds and three steals in Troy’s 78-70 win over So. Miss on March 8.
PREDICTIONS: Let’s risk 2.2 units to win two units on Troy +13.5. Let’s also risk 0.25 units to win 1.8 units on Troy on the money line for a +720 payout (FanDuel).