As of early this morning, the Westgate SuperBook, WynnBET and BetOnline had Marquette (19-5 straight up, 16-7-1 against the spread) listed as a 4.5-point underdog tonight at UConn.
Back in late November and a good chunk of December, UConn was an automatic play for me during a five-game stretch when I went 10-0 ATS backing it with plays in the first half and the game. Danny Hurley’s team started the season 14-0 SU, went 11-0-1 ATS in its first 12 games and won by double-digit margins in its first 13 contests.
During a three-game stretch in four days at Moda Center in Portland over Thanksgiving weekend, UConn destroyed Oregon (83-59 as a 3.5-point favorite), Alabama (82-67 as a two-point underdog) and Iowa St. (71-53 as a 5.5-point ‘chalk’). Next, the Huskies beat Oklahoma St. 74-64 as nine-point home favorites before going to Gainesville and pounding Florida 75-54 as four-point road ‘chalk.’
At that time, I said on multiple radio shows that if I was a UConn fan, I’d thrilled with the results but also concerned that Hurley’s bunch was peaking too soon. I used Auburn as an example from last season as a team that played its best basketball in November and December, only to fall apart down the stretch.
Well, UConn has time to right the ship, but this is a squad that’s been struggling for five straight weeks. Don’t let the back-to-back victories and 3-1 record in their last four games fool you, the Huskies are still in a funk. They’re 4-6 SU in their last 10 outings and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 contests.
Since losing at Xavier on New Year’s Eve, UConn has one quality victory — a 69-60 home win over Creighton as a 7.5-point favorite on Jan. 7. The Huskies’ only wins since then have come vs. Butler (No. 111 at KenPom), at DePaul (No. 137 K-Pom) and at Georgetown (No. 211).
In Saturday’s 68-62 win over the Hoyas as a 13-point road favorite, UConn trailed by one with 3:05 remaining.
Marquette has won five games in a row while going 4-1 ATS, and all five wins have been by margins of at least eight points. The Golden Eagles’ lone defeat in 2023 came in an 80-76 loss at Xavier (No. 21) as three-point underdogs on Jan. 15. They’ve produced a 16-3 SU record since Dec. 3.
During this 19-game stretch, Marquette’s only two losses (besides the aforementioned defeat at Xavier) came in overtime at home vs. Wisconsin (80-77) and in OT at Providence (103-98). Eleven of the Golden Eagles’ 16 have wins have been by 11 points or more, and they’ve won 14 of those 16 games by at least eight points.
Shaka Smart’s squad has been an underdog six times this year, producing a 4-1-1 spread record with three outright victories. The lone non-cover came by only one point in the loss at Xavier.
When these teams met in Milwaukee on Jan. 11, Marquette beat UConn 82-76 as a two-point home underdog. Although that result gives the Huskies the revenge angle tonight, I still like the Golden Eagles as underdogs.
The Pick: Marquette +4.5