Forget about John Calipari’s 0-5 start in SEC play that had Arkansas fans wondering if it had hired the wrong coach. Forget about Boogie Fland’s injury that caused him to miss 15 consecutive games.
The 65-62 home loss to Oklahoma? Flush it. The 73-52 loss at South Carolina? Forget about it.
None of that matters now. All that matters is that Arkansas (22-13 straight up, 16-17-2 against the spread) is one of 16 teams that still have a pulse in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
After Nolan Richardson’s last trip to the Sweet 16 in 1996, it took the Razorbacks 24 years to get back to a region semifinal. Eric Musselman’s tenure changed that, though, as ‘Muss’ had the Hogs in the Sweet 16 three years in a row from 2021-23.
After a disappointing 2024 campaign, The Muss Bus left the Ozarks to return to California, where he’s now the head coach of the USC Trojans.
With his popularity continuing to fade in Lexington, Calipari decided to leave Kentucky for Arkansas. Cal’s ‘Cats had failed to get past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament for five straight seasons.
The move made everybody happy. Here we are nearly a year later, and everyone remains happy. Arkansas and Kentucky are both in the Sweet 16.
Calipari’s team advanced to the Round of 32 with a 79-72 win over Kansas as a five-point underdog. Then on Saturday afternoon, the Razorbacks took down second-seeded St. John’s 75-66 as seven-point underdogs.
Billy Richmond was the catalyst in 28 minutes of action from off the bench. The freshman scored 16 points and grabbed nine rebounds, including five boards at the offensive end. Richmond’s jumper with 2:58 remaining extended the Hogs’ lead to 68-64 and started a 9-2 run to finish the game.
Karter Knox finished with 15 points, six rebounds, four blocked shots, one assist and one steal. He buried 3-of-5 field-goal attempts and 9-of-11 free throws. Johnell Davis added 13 points on 5-of-10 shooting from the field.
Side Note: Davis’s player prop for points was good to us on both Thursday (when he scored 18 vs. KU) and Saturday, as the FAU transfer guard hit a pair of free throws with 11 seconds left to inch ‘over’ 12.5 to 13 points.
Trevon Brazile had eight points, eight rebounds and one blocked shot, while Jonas Aidoo contributed seven points, seven boards, two assists, one block and one steal. In his second game back from a hand injury, Fland logged 20 minutes and had six points, four rebounds, one steal and two assists without a turnover.
With the win, Arkansas advances to the West Region semifinals at Chase Center in San Francisco, where it’ll face third-seeded Texas Tech (27-8 SU, 18-17 ATS) in Thursday night’s second game after Florida vs. Maryland.
As of early Monday afternoon, most books had the Red Raiders installed as 5.5-point favorites with a total of 147.5. The Razorbacks were +200 on the money line.
Arkansas has a 6-1 record in its last seven games against teams that made the NCAA Tournament, including wins over Missouri, Texas, Vanderbilt and Mississippi St. Regardless of the opponent, the Hogs are 7-2 SU in their last nine games. They’re 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games, but two of the non-covers were by one combined point.
In its last 10 games as an underdog, Arkansas is 8-2 ATS with five outright wins. However, one of the non-covers was an ATS victory for some Arkansas backers, as it lost by eight at Texas A&M as a 7.5-point road underdog. But the Aggies opened as 8.5-point home ‘chalk’ and were still at -8.5 the morning of the win that saw late line movement push the number down to 7.5.
During Calipari’s appearance on the Pat McAfee Show on Tuesday, he revealed that Arkansas will have its leading scorer Adou Thiero back vs. Texas Tech. The junior forward who followed Cal from Kentucky to Fayetteville has missed eight straight games injured.
In 26 games for the Hogs this year, Thiero is averaging 15.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.7 steals and 0.8 blocked shots per game. He’s made 54.8 percent of his field-goal attempts.
Calipari stated that Thiero will likely be on a minute’s restriction against the Red Raiders.
Texas Tech is 1-3 ATS in its last four games and 5-8 versus the number in its last 13 contests. The Red Raiders might be without Chance McMillian, who is ‘questionable’ with an upper-body injury.
McMillian has missed three games in a row and five of the last nine. In 30 games this year, the 6-foot-3 senior guard is averaging 14.2 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. McMillian has hit 43.4 percent of his 3-point attempts and 88.2 percent of his free throws.
We went 3-0 for 4.4 units of profit by backing Arkansas +7, Arkansas +280 on the money line and Davis’s ‘over’ 12.5 prop for points scored in the win over St. John’s. In fact, we’ve been on the Hogs for winners in four straight games (we had Arkansas -3 in its four-point win over South Carolina that resulted in a push when the line closed at -4).
Why would we stop backing Cal’s squad at this point? We won’t.
PREDICTION: Let’s take Arkansas +5.5 risking 2.2 units to win two and the Hogs +210 (Westgate SuperBook) on the money line risking 0.5 units to 1.05 units.
Side Note #2: If you tail and the Hogs make us some greenbacks, you’re always welcome to tip your bartender if you wish.