As of Wednesday morning, most books had Miami (4-16 straight up, 4-16 against the spread) listed as a one-point home favorite for tonight’s home game vs. Virginia. The total was 135 points at most spots.
Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
We’ve had a lot of success going against the Auto-Fade ‘Canes this year. Two Saturdays ago, we got more vocal about that strategy and won four units on SMU in its 117-74 win at Miami.
Several days later when UM played at Stanford, we penned this article that led to 3.5 units of profit backing the Cardinal in its 88-51 win over the Hurricanes.
After Miami spent at least three nights in hotels in the Bay Area, of course we went against it in Saturday’s game at California. After trailing 47-39 at halftime, UM’s Matthew Cleveland kept his team in the game on his way to scoring 30 points to go with eight rebounds and three assists without a turnover.
When the game ended up going to overtime, our play on California -9 had a pulse. Then when the Golden Bears went ahead 92-84 and still had one free throw to shoot with 33 seconds left, a wrong-side winner was looking like a real possibility.
However, Cal missed the free throw and Cleveland countered with two free throws of his own. Cal answered when DJ Campbell hit back-to-back shots at the charity stipe for a 94-86 with 24 seconds remaining.
But UM’s A.J. Staton-McCray made a trey with 16 ticks left. Campbell then made 1-of-2 FTAs before Staton-McCray drained another 3-ball to make it 95-92 with seven seconds remaining.
Cal ended up winning by a 98-94 count.
Therefore, we lost 2.75 units on our bet for the Golden Bears to cover as nine-point home ‘chalk.’ We actually went 2-1, though, as we hit winners on Cal in the first half (-5.5 for 1.5 units) and its Team Total ‘over’ (80.5 for 0.5 units) to win back two units and take a loss of 0.75 units overall.
Are we poised to get back on the saddle and throw down multiple units going against the Auto-Fade ‘Canes tonight? Negative.
That’s because this Virginia (9-11 SU, 8-12 ATS) team isn’t much better than UM. But when the books make Miami the favorite, we’re left with no choice.
Remember, the Auto-Fade ‘Canes haven’t tasted victory since Dec. 15 when they beat Presbyterian, which is ranked #261 at KenPom. Miami’s only other wins came at home vs. #362 (of 364 Division-1 teams) Coppin St., #323 Binghamton and #312 Fairleigh Dickinson.
The Auto-Fade ‘Canes have lost nine games in a row, going 1-9 ATS in their last 10 contests. They’ve lost all nine of their ACC games, including eight losses by double-digit margins.
The Cavs are 3-1 ATS in their last four games, including a 74-56 win over Boston College. When UVA has faced opponents with a KenPom ranking outside of the Top 100, it has produced a 7-1 record with the lone loss coming at #116 Cal.
Miami is #198 at K-Pom.
PREDICTION: UVA +1.5 (DraftKings at 9:35 a.m. Eastern) for one unit. Let’s also go with UVA at UM ‘over’ 135 points for one unit.
My thoughts on the total:
The ‘over’ is 11-8-1 for UM overall, but this is its lowest total of the season. In fact, seven of its eight ‘unders’ and the push would’ve gone North of tonight’s tally. In other words, 19 of the Hurricanes’ 20 games have had combined scores of 137 points or more.
K-Pom has UM ranked #345 nationally in defensive efficiency, but it has a decent #58 ranking in offensive efficiency. The ‘Canes are ranked dead last in the country at defending the 3-point line (39.3%), #362 in FG percentage defense (49.7%) and #348 in scoring ‘D’ (80.6 PPG).
UM is ranked #28 in free-throw percentage, making 77.4 percent of its attempts from the stripe.
The ‘over’ has cashed at a 7-2 clip for UVA in its last nine contests, although we’ll concede that only four of the Cavs’ last eight games have gone ‘over’ tonight’s tally. Those four games produced combined scores of 148, 153, 136 and 137 points.
Virginia is ranked #53 nationally in 3-point accuracy (37.0%) and #99 in free-throw percentage (74.1%), so it’s like the Cavs are throwing up bricks galore for 40 minutes every game.