As of late Wednesday afternoon, most books had Florida (21-6 straight up, 14-13 against the spread) listed as a seven or 7.5-point favorite for tonight’s SEC showdown at Texas. The total was in the 159.5 to 160.5 range, while the Longhorns were +260 on the money line.
Most spots had UF’s Team Total at 83.5 points for the game and 39.5 for the first half.
Texas (17-10 SU, 15-11 ATS) had its five-game winning streak snapped in Saturday’s 91-80 loss at Georgia, while the Gators won their seventh straight game by a 94-75 count at Ole Miss.
Alex Condon led UF with 24 points, four rebounds, one steal, one blocked shot and six assists compared to only one turnover. He made 9-of-13 field-goal attempts and all five of his free throws. Thomas Haugh added 20 points, nine boards, four assists, two blocked shots and one steal.
Florida had its best game of the season in terms of 3-point accuracy, burying 11-of-22 launches (50.0%) from downtown.
Sean Miller’s team owns a 12-3 SU record and an 8-7 ATS mark in 15 home games. Meanwhile, Todd Golden’s squad is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in eight road assignments. UF’s two road blemishes came by three combined points at Duke (67-66) and at Missouri (76-74).
Florida has cashed tickets at a 7-0 ATS clip in its last seven games as a single-digit favorite. Texas has compiled a 7-2 spread record with four outright wins in nine games as an underdog.
The ‘over’ has hit in five straight games for the Longhorns to improve to 17-9 overall. The ‘under’ is on a 7-2 run for UF in its last nine games to improve to 17-10 overall.
When these teams met in Gainesville last season, Florida won 84-60 as a 10.5-point home favorite. The 144 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 153.5-point total.
Condon produced 11 points, 12 rebounds, four steals, three assists and one blocked shot.
PICKS: Let’s go with Florida -7, risking 1.1 units to win 1. Let’s also go with UF -3.5 in the first half, risking 0.55 units to win 0.5. And finally, let’s risk 1.65 units to win 1.5 on UF’s Team Total ‘over’ 83 points, and let’s also risk 0.5 units (+100) to win 0.5 units on UF’s Team Total ‘over’ 39.5 points in the first half.
Florida has scored at least 86 points in 13 of its last 17 games. For the season, the Gators are ranked #23 nationally in scoring with their 86.1 points-per-game average.
KenPom has UF ranked #16 in the country in offensive efficiency and #2 in offensive rebounding percentage. Todd Golden’s team has scored at least 90 points in 11 of its last 17 contests.
Bonus Pick: Let’s risk 1.15 units to win 1 on Georgia +8 (-115 price) at Vanderbilt.
I made Vandy a six-point favorite in this game. UGA is 5-3 both SU and ATS in eight road assignments, including last week’s win at Rupp Arena over Kentucky. The Commodores have dropped back-to-back games and three of their last five both SU and ATS, and they’re only 7-8 ATS at home this year.