My rankings are based on who I would make favored over whom on a neutral court.
1-Florida (19-6 straight up, 13-12 against the spread): Todd Golden’s team is rounding into form at the ideal time. UF is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games with eight wins by margins of 15 points or more. Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland are playing at a significantly higher level than they were during non-conference play.
2-Michigan (24-1 SU, 13-12 ATS): The Wolverines have won 20 of their 24 games by double-digit margins.
3-Arizona (23-2 SU, 15-10 ATS): The Wildcats have suddenly dropped back-to-back games, and their final six regular-season games look like this: vs. BYU, at Houston, at Baylor, vs. Kansas, vs. Iowa St. and at Colorado.
4-Duke (23-2 SU, 13-12 ATS): FanDuel had the Blue Devils as 1.5-point underdogs for Saturday’s showdown vs. Michigan in Washington D.C., but that was on Friday (Feb. 13) before Saturday’s Valentine’s Day results. The book had the game off the board Sunday afternoon.
5-UConn (24-2 SU, 9-17 ATS): Dan Hurley’s team is mired in a 2-10 ATS slump, going 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a double-digit favorite. The Huskies play at Villanova on Saturday before getting their rematch with St. John’s at home on Feb. 25.
6-Houston (23-2 SU, 14-11 ATS): Kelvin Sampson’s squad has more offensive firepower that many of his previous teams. The Cougars are in Ames Monday before hosting Arizona on Saturday.
7-Illinois (21-5 SU, 15-11 ATS): Kylan Boswell returned in Sunday’s 71-51 home win over Indiana. Four of the Fighting Illini’s five losses have come by 12 combined points, with two of those coming in overtime.
8-Iowa St. (22-3 SU, 15-10 ATS): The Cyclones bounced back from last week’s loss at TCU to pound Kansas 74-56 as seven-point home favorites.
9-Purdue (21-4 SU, 12-13 ATS): Just when it appeared Matt Painter’s team was starting to spiral in the wrong direction, it responded with back-to-back road wins at Nebraska and at Iowa. Star senior point guard Braden Smith dished out 22 assists compared to only two turnovers in the wins over the Cornhuskers and Hawkeyes, and he also snagged 15 rebounds.
10-Gonzaga (25-2 SU, 15-12 ATS): In non-conference play, Mark Few’s club beat Oklahoma, Creighton, Alabama, Kentucky and UCLA by double-digit margins. The Bulldogs added a quality road win Saturday at Santa Clara.
11-Arkansas (19-6 SU, 17-8 ATS): The Hogs have won three games in a row by 62 combined points, going 3-0 ATS. They own high-quality wins over Louisville, Texas Tech, Tennessee and Vanderbilt.
12-Texas Tech (19-6 SU, 14-11 ATS): The Red Raiders have wins over Duke, Arizona and Houston, who are ranked #2, #3 and #4, respectively, in KenPom’s rankings, and only one of those victories was in Lubbock.
13-Kansas (19-6 SU, 16-9 ATS): KU had its eight-game winning streak snapped Saturday in Ames. The Jayhawks will host Houston on Feb. 23 and will go for a season sweep of Arizona when they travel to Tucson on Feb. 28.
14-Nebraska (22-3 SU, 14-11 ATS): Fred Hoiberg’s team has lost three of its last five games since starting the season with 20 consecutive wins. The schedule sets up nicely the rest of the way.
15-Michigan St. (20-5 SU, 13-12 ATS): Sparty has lost three of its last four games and needed overtime to collect its last two wins. They have looming road trips to West Lafayette, Bloomington and Ann Arbor. As usual, this team has Tom Izzo’s toughness, but I don’t know if this team has enough shooters to make a deep run in March.
16-Vanderbilt
17-St. John’s
18-Tennessee
19-Alabama
20-Louisville
21-Wisconsin
22-Villanova
23-Virginia
24-Kentucky
25-North Carolina