My rankings are based on who I would make favored over whom on a neutral court.
These were compiled before Monday’s (2/24/25) results.
1-Auburn (25-2 straight up, 16-11 against the spread): Bruce Pearl’s bunch owns an incredible 14-2 record against Quad-1 opponents. The Tigers have won 17 games by double-digit margins. They also have 17 wins over KenPom Top-50 foes. The ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run for AU in its last eight outings.
2-Florida (24-3 SU, 20-7 ATS): You can easily make the argument that the Gators have been the best team in the country over the last three weeks. Todd Golden’s squad has won six games in a row both SU and ATS, and it’s done so while enduring a rash of injuries. However, it says here that the injury bug has been a blessing in disguise. It resulted in 7-foot-1 center Micah Handlogten’s return to the court and the emergence of freshman guard Urban Klavsar, who had drained 9-of-13 launches from 3-point land over a five-game stretch before making only 1-of-4 from downtown in Saturday’s win at LSU. KenPom has UF ranked #4 nationally in offensive efficiency and #7 in defensive efficiency. The Gators have won 21 games by double-digit margins. They’re expected to get star power forward Alex Condon back this week. I’m holding a 35/1 future ticket on my alma mater.
3-Duke (24-3 SU, 17-10 ATS): Since losing vs. Kansas in Las Vegas on Nov. 26, Duke has a 20-1 record. The Blue Devils have won four games in a row by margins of 21, 36, 18 and 43 points, including a 110-67 win over Illinois at Madison Square Garden this past Saturday, since dropping a 77-71 decision at Clemson. They own road wins at Arizona, at SMU, at Louisville and at Wake Forest, in addition to a home victory vs. Auburn.
4-Alabama: (22-5 SU, 15-12 ATS): Nate Oats’s club has as much talent as any team in the country. The Crimson Tide is 9-5 versus Q1 opponents, including neutral-court wins over Houston and Illinois, road scalps at North Carolina, at Texas A&M, at Kentucky, at Mississippi St. and at Texas. I have a 20/1 future ticket on ‘Bama that I bought 2-3 minutes after Rutgers transfer center Cliff Omoruyi committed to the Tide.
5-Tennessee (22-5 SU, 15-11-1 ATS): Rick Barnes’s team has won back-to-back games and five of its last six, including home wins over Florida and Vanderbilt, in addition to road victories at Oklahoma and at Texas A&M. In non-conference play, the Volunteers picked up road wins at Louisville and at Illinois, and they also beat Baylor on a neutral court. KenPom has Tennessee ranked #1 nationally in defensive efficiency. I have a 17/1 ticket on the Vols, who are hoping to make their first Final Four in program history.
6-Houston (23-4 SU, 15-12 ATS): Since going 1-3 in neutral-court contests during November, Houston has compiled a 19-1 record. The lone blemish was a home loss to Texas Tech in overtime, and the Cougars can avenge that loss tonight in Lubbock. They’re 8-4 in Q1 games and 7-0 versus Q2 foes. With all that said, I think UH will have a game in the second week of the Tournament when it just can’t make enough buckets to advance.
7-Texas Tech (21-6 SU, 15-12 ATS): Four of Texas Tech’s losses are by nine combined points. The Red Raiders, who are led by JT Toppin (17.3 points per game, 9.1 RPG) and Chance McMillian (15.1 PPG), have eight Big 12 wins by double-digit margins.
8-Missouri (20-7 SU, 16-11 ATS): Dennis Gates’s team is deep, big and physical. Mizzou has won eight SEC games by at least eight points. The Tigers have zero shameful defeats and six Q1 wins. They’re the only team to win at Florida. Mizzou also won by 27 points in Starkville and has home victories over Kansas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Vanderbilt. I have an 80/1 future ticket on the Tigers.
9-Iowa St. (21-6 SU, 15-12 ATS): Iowa St. had its four-game winning streak snapped Saturday at Houston, but it was playing without its two leading scorers. The Cyclones have a 13-6 combined record in Q1/Q2 games. They’re 15-6 vs. KenPom Top-100 opponents. One of those losses was by two points against Auburn on a neutral court, and another was at Arizona in overtime when the Wildcats’ Caleb Love made a buzzer beater beyond halfcourt to force OT.
10-Wisconsin (21-6 SU, 17-9-1 ATS): This is the best offensive team of the Greg Gard Era in Madison, ranking ninth in offensive efficiency at K-Pom. Wisconsin leads the nation in free-throw percentage (83.6%). The Badgers had won five games in a row both SU and ATS before losing at home Saturday to Oregon in overtime. Their weakness is a lack of rim protection.
11-Maryland (21-6 SU, 15-12 ATS): Kevin Willard has never taken a team past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but that’s likely to change next month. The Terrapins have won four games in a row both SU and ATS, easily covering as double-digit ‘chalk’ in their last two contests. The ‘over’ has cashed in four straight games for Maryland and is 10-3 in its last 13 outings.
12-Kentucky (18-9 SU, 14-12-1 ATS): Mark Pope’s team has been without Jaxson Robinson for the last four games and starting point guard Lamont Butler for the last three. Both players might be back this week. UK owns eight Q1 wins, including a pair of victories over Tennessee, a win over Gonzaga in Seattle, a win vs. Duke in Atlanta and home scalps of Florida, Texas A&M and Louisville. The ‘Cats also collected a win at Mississippi St.
13-Texas A&M (20-7 SU, 14-11-2 ATS): After winning five games in a row and seven of its last eight, Texas A&M had a rough week, falling 70-54 at Mississippi St. and 77-69 at home vs. Tennessee. The Aggies still own 14 combined wins in Q1/Q2 contests.
14-Arizona (18-9 SU, 15-12 ATS): Arizona has dropped three of its last four games both SU and ATS, but Saturday’s one-point defeat at home vs. BYU was cloaked with controversy. The Cougars were given an extremely kind whistle in the closing seconds that resulted in a pair of game-winning free throws. The Wildcats have a 10-9 combined record in Q1/Q2 games, and K-Pom has them ranked #19 and #18 in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively.
15-UCLA (20-8 SU, 16-11-1 ATS): Since losing four games in a row and five of six in late December and early January, UCLA is 9-2 SU and 7-3-1 ATS. The Bruins’ metrics took a major hit when they made only 5-of-15 free-throw attempts in the second half and blew an 11-point halftime lead in a 64-61 home loss to Minnesota last week. The Gophers didn’t take their first lead of the game until there was less than a minute remaining. Whatever the case, Mick Cronin’s bunch has wins over Arizona, Gonzaga and Oregon outside of Pauley Pavilion, in addition to home victories over the likes of Wisconsin, Michigan St., Ohio St., Oregon and Wisconsin.
16-Michigan St. (22-5 SU, 17-9-1 ATS) Sparty has posted a 13-5 combined record in Q1/Q2 contests. However, Tom Izzo’s team is dreadful from downtown, ranking #351 out of 364 Division-1 teams in 3-point accuracy (29.6%). Therefore, I don’t have much faith in MSU’s chances at making a deep run next month. The ‘under’ has hit in four straight games and is 7-1 in the Spartans’ last eight outings.
Best of the rest: Michigan, Ole Miss, Clemson, Marquette, Louisville, Purdue, St. John’s, Oregon and BYU.