Originally published on Tuesday, 3/24/26, at 3:37 p.m. Eastern.
Updated on Thursday, 3/26/26, at 12:31 p.m. Eastern.
FanDuel has released its updated odds to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Michigan is the +310 ‘chalk,’ followed by the two other #1 seeds in Arizona (+390) and Duke (+410).
With the fourth top seed Florida going down vs. Iowa on Sunday in Tampa, Houston saw its odds reduced to +700 ahead of the South Region semifinals in H-Town.
The next-shortest odds belong to Purdue (+1300 or 13/1), Illinois (15/1), Iowa St. (17/1), UConn (22/1), Michigan St. (30/1), St. John’s (33/1), Arkansas (50/1), Tennessee (55/1), Nebraska (60/1), Iowa (100/1), Alabama (80/1) and Texas (150/1).
UPDATE: The above odds were from Tuesday. As of early Thursday afternoon, they looked like this:
Michigan +310
Arizona +370
Duke +430
Houston +650
Purdue +1300 or 13/1
Illinois 15/1
Iowa St. 17/1
UConn 22/1
Michigan St. 30/1
St. John’s 33/1
Arkansas 50/1
Tennessee 65/1
Nebraska 65/1
Iowa 80/1
Alabama 80/1
Texas 150/1
The action starts Thursday at SAP Center in San Jose, CA., where Texas will take on Purdue at 7:10 p.m. Eastern on CBS. As of Tuesday morning, most books had the Boilermakers listed as 6.5 or seven-point favorites with a total of 148.5 or 149. The Longhorns were +250 on the money line.
By early Thursday afternoon, most spots had Purdue at -7.5 with the total in the 147 to 148 range. Texas had +300 odds to win outright.
The reason for the slight line movement is likely tied to the status of Texas guard Jordan Pope, who is listed as ‘questionable’ with an ankle injury. Pope, who averages 13.1 points, 2.1 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game, had 17 points and three assists without a turnover in the Longhorns’ 74-68 win over Gonzaga last Saturday.
These schools met in the 2022 Round of 32 in Milwaukee, where Matt Painter’s team won an 81-71 decision as a three-point favorite. The 152 combined points flew ‘over’ the 135.5-point total.
Purdue (29-8 straight up, 17-20 against the spread) advanced to the second weekend with wins over Queens (104-71) and Miami (79-69). The Boilermakers are on a six-game winning streak and have covered the number in three consecutive contests. The ‘over’ has hit in three straight games to improve to 19-18 overall.
Painter’s team is 6-4 SU in 10 games against opponents who are in the Sweet 16.
Texas (21-14 SU, 19-15 ATS) is the only remaining double-digit seed. Sean Miller’s squad began its NCAA Tournament run at the First Four in Dayton, where it captured a 68-66 win over NC St. as a 1.5-point underdog.
Next, Texas knocked off BYU 79-71 as a 2.5-point ‘dog. The Longhorns proceeded to take down third-seeded Gonzaga by a 74-68 count as 6.5-point ‘dogs. The ‘under’ has been a winner in four consecutive games for Miller’s bunch.
Texas has been an underdog 16 times this season, compiling an 11-5 ATS record with eight outright wins. The Longhorns are 1-4 SU in five games against foes that are in the Sweet 16.
PREDICTION: Pass.
In the late game Thursday in San Jose, Arizona and Arkansas will collide on CBS. As of Tuesday morning, most books had the Wildcats listed as 7.5 or eight-point favorites. The total was 167.5 or 168 points, while the Razorbacks were +280 on the money line.
By early Thursday, the numbers on the side hadn’t budged, but the total had been reduced to 164.5 at most shops.
Arizona (34-2 SU, 21-15 ATS) has won 11 straight games, including a 92-58 win over Long Island and a 78-66 victory over Utah St. this past week. Tommy Lloyd’s team failed to cover as a 12.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. the Aggies, who only trailed by four points with 4:45 remaining.
Arizona won the rebounding battle 45-23 over Utah St., and the Wildcats shot 39 free throws compared to only 11 for the Aggies. Jaden Bradley scored a game-high 18 points, while Koa Peat had 14 points and 10 rebounds.
Arkansas (28-8 SU, 23-13 ATS) is on a seven-game winning streak after winning the SEC Tournament, trouncing Hawaii (97-78) and holding off High Point, 94-88. Darius Acuff led the Hogs with 36 points and six assists against the Panthers.
Arkansas has been an underdog 12 times this season, posting a 7-5 spread record with five outright victories. The ‘over’ is on an 18-9 run for the Hogs, going 9-2 in their last 11 contests.
Arizona owns a 6-0 SU record in six games against teams that are remaining in the field. The Wildcats have wins at UConn (71-67), vs. Alabama (96-75 in Birmingham), at Houston (73-66), vs. Iowa St. (73-57), vs. Iowa St. (82-80 in Kansas City) and vs. Houston (79-74 in Kansas City).
Arkansas has limped to a 2-4 SU record in six such contests. The losses came at Michigan St. (69-66), vs. Duke in Chicago (80-71), vs. Houston in Newark, N.J. (94-85) and at Alabama (117-115 in double overtime). The Hogs beat Tennessee 86-75 in Fayetteville and downed Texas 105-85 at home.
The matchup in the backcourt between Acuff and Bradley should be a fascinating watch. Acuff is averaging 28.8 PPG in the Hogs’ last 12 contests. He’s scored at least 24 points in six straight games and in 14 of the last 24 outings.
PREDICTIONS: Let’s risk 1.2 units to win one unit on Arizona’s Team Total ‘over’ 86.5 points (-120 price). Let’s also risk 1.1 units to win one unit on Acuff to go ‘over’ his player prop of 24 points.
(Note: Arkansas has a Team Total of 78.5 points at most shops. We’d be remiss if we didn’t point out that the Hogs have scored at least 83 points in 28 of their 34 games this season. However, the Wildcats have allowed 80 or more points only six times.
The other Thursday games will go down at Toyota Center in Houston. In the curtain jerker, Big Ten rivals Iowa and Nebraska will face each other. The Cornhuskers are fresh off their first two NCAA Tournament wins in program history, while the Hawkeyes are in their first Sweet 16 since Tom Davis’s last year as head coach in 1999.
As of Tuesday morning, most spots had Nebraska (28-6 SU, 19-15 ATS) installed as a 1.5-point favorite with the total in the 133.5 to 134.5 range.
By Thursday afternoon, Nebraska remained the slim favorite, but the total was down to 131 (Westgate SuperBook) or 131.5.
The ‘under’ is 23-11 overall for the Cornhuskers, but this is their lowest total of the season. Their lowest total previously was 136.5 points (more on that below).
Fred Hoiberg’s team blasted Troy 76-47 as a 13.5-point favorite in Thursday’s lid-lifter in Oklahoma City. Pryce Sandfort buried 7-of-12 attempts from 3-point land in a 23-point effort, and Rienk Mast contributed 11 points, seven assists and six rebounds.
In Saturday’s Round of 32, Nebraska won a 74-72 thriller over Vanderbilt as a 1.5-point underdog. Freshman Braden Frager’s driving bucket with 2.2 seconds remaining put the Cornhuskers ahead by two.
After a timeout, Vandy’s Tyler Tanner hoisted a Hail Mary from beyond halfcourt that hit the backboard first before rattling in and out similar to Gordon Hayward’s shot for Butler against Duke in the finals of the 2010 NCAA Tournament.
With apologies to High Point and its upset win over Wisconsin, Iowa (23-12 SU, 20-15 ATS) pulled off the biggest stunner of the Tournament in Sunday’s 73-72 win over top-seeded Florida as a 10.5-point underdog in Tampa.
Trailing 72-70 with 8.9 seconds remaining on the far baseline, Todd Golden chose to apply pressure in the backcourt, and the strategy failed miserably. Iowa’s best player, point guard Bennett Stirtz, was able to catch the ball with a running start and suddenly was on the move off the dribble with three UF defenders trailing him.
Stirtz dished to Alvaro Folgueiras who was wide open in the corner. With 4.5 ticks left, the 6-foot-10 transfer from Robert Morris drained the 3-pointer. After the Gators called timeout, Xaivian Lee wasn’t able to get a shot off as he drove into the lane.
Iowa and Nebraska split a pair of regular-season meetings. The Hawkeyes captured a 57-52 win as 1.5-point home favorites on Feb. 17, with the 109 combined points dropping ‘under’ the 139.5-point total.
Stirtz was the catalyst for the winners, scoring 25 points to go with two rebounds, two assists, two blocked shots and a pair of steals. Sandfort, who spent his first two seasons of college playing at Iowa, had a team-best 13 points in the losing effort.
In the rematch in Lincoln on March 8, Nebraska allowed a six-point lead with 1:13 remaining to get away, as Iowa closed regulation on an 8-2 run to force overtime. However, the Cornhuskers outscored the Hawkeyes 14-5 in the extra session to win 84-75 as 4.5-point home favorites. The 159 combined points went ‘over’ the 136.5-point tally, but 140 combined points in regulation (70-70 tie, obviously) had already gone North of the number.
I’m not much of a believer in letdown scenarios in the NCAA Tournament, but could that be in play for Iowa off its upset win over UF? This stat would seem to suggest it’s a possibility: Since the 2003 NCAA Tournament, there have only been six instances in the Sweet 16 or beyond when a team coming off an outright win as a double-digit underdog. In those cases, that team has struggled to a 0-6 SU record and a 1-5 ATS mark.
PREDICTION: Let’s risk 1.26 units to win one unit on Nebraska on the money line (-126 at FanDuel).
The late game in H-Town will feature the hometown Cougars, who will meet third-seeded Illinois. As of Tuesday morning, most shops had Houston (30-6 SU, 18-18 ATS) as a 3.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 139.5 or 140. The Fighting Illini had +135 money-line odds.
By early Thursday afternoon, most spots had UH as a two (Caesars and the Westgate) or 2.5-point favorite. The total was in the 139.5 to 140.5 range. The best money-line payout for Illinois was +135 at both Circa and BetMGM.
These schools squared off in the Round of 32 in the 2022 NCAA Tournament, as Houston won a 68-53 decision as a four-point favorite in Pittsburgh.
Kelvin Sampson’s squad won by 62 combined points in wins over Idaho (78-47) and Texas A&M (88-57) this past weekend. Emmanuel Sharp led the way against the Aggies with 18 points despite being limited to 25 minutes due to foul trouble. Chris Cenac added 17 points and nine rebounds for the Cougars, who are 7-7 ATS with four outright defeats in 14 games as single-digit favorites.
Illinois (26-8 SU, 19-15 ATS) was mired in a 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS slide coming into this year’s Tournament, but Brad Underwood’s team coasted through the first weekend with 105-70 and 76-55 wins over Penn and VCU, respectively. The Fighting Illini are 3-3 both SU and ATS in six games as an underdog this year.
PREDICTION: Pass.