The Ultimate Fighting Championship goes to Rochester, New York, for the first time Saturday for UFC Fight Night 152. The main event features an appetizing welterweight bout between former lightweights Rafael dos Anjos and Kevin Lee. Here’s a look at the pivotal 170-pound headliner.
The 34-year-old Dos Anjos goes into this fight looking to snap a two-fight losing streak. Dos Anjos (28-11 MMA, 17-9 UFC) moved up to welterweight in 2017 and enjoyed a promising start. The former lightweight champion outpointed Tarec Saffiedine, submitted Neil Magny and dominated Robbie Lawler via unanimous decision to earn a shot at the interim welterweight title against Colby Covington last summer at UFC 225.
While the fight was competitive, it was the natural welterweight in Covington who emerged victorious via unanimous decision thanks in part to his pressure, wrestling and clinch work. Dos Anjos would attempt to bounce back in November by facing another wrestler in Kamaru Usman — who would later become the new welterweight champion. This fight was more one-sided as the wrestling and clinch work once again played a role. Usman, who is bigger than Covington, emerged victorious via unanimous decision, with one judge notably scoring the contest 50-43.
Dos Anjos will now face another wrestler in Lee. However, he won’t be outsized this time. “RDA” has good wrestling himself, but size clearly played a key factor in his last two fights. The Brazilian was taken down a combined 38 times by Covington and Usman, but it’s notable that he also managed to stuff a combined 34 takedown attempts. Lee is an outstanding wrestler, but we don’t see Dos Anjos getting taken down by him as much as Covington and Usman.
It’s also possible Dos Anjos could take the fight to Lee on the ground due to their similar size, but he’ll be better served keeping the fight standing. RDA is one of the best pressure fighters on the roster, and he’d like to slowly but intelligently stalk Lee in order to land a barrage of strikes like he did against Lawler.
Dos Anjos also likes to utilize leg kicks with 20 percent of his UFC career significant strikes being targeted there. For comparison, renowned leg-kicking specialists Edson Barboza and Jose Aldo have 28 and 16 percent of their significant strikes targeted at the legs, respectively. For “RDA,” chopping at the legs could be key as it’s an effective way to create and control distance. Furthermore, it prevents takedown attempts by making it harder for Lee to put weight on his legs. However, the risks of leg kicks, especially early on, are that they can create takedown opportunities for Lee.
Lee (17-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC) is in bounce-back mode after a close unanimous decision defeat to Al Iaquinta in December. That setback marked his second defeat in three fights following a 9-2 run in his 11 previous Octagon appearances. After consistently struggling with the weight cut to 155 pounds, the “Motown Phenom” has now decided to move up to welterweight just like Dos Anjos.
Not having to cut an extra 15 pounds or so could make all the difference for Lee. At 170 pounds, his cardio will certainly be better. Perhaps most important, he should have more power to utilize his wrestling game.
Lee is an elite wrestler who lands an average of 3.1 takedowns per 15 minutes on 7.09 attempts. His top game is devastating as he lands 76 percent of his significant strike attempts on the ground. He is a submission threat, too, with four of his UFC wins coming via rear-naked chokes.
While Dos Anjos theoretically should have an easier time stuffing takedowns than he did against Covington and Usman, Lee is an athletic freak and will likely be more physically imposing in this new weight class. However, the Detroit native can sometimes deviate from the game plan. He has repeatedly spoken of wanting to be part of the new generation of fighters that can mix up their game.
While Lee is certainly a better striker than when he first debuted, his striking is still very unpolished, especially compared to Dos Anjos. Despite having a massive 77-inch reach, he has struggled to utilize it to his advantage.
Iaquinta was able to land 220 significant distance strikes against Lee despite having a seven-inch reach disadvantage. One could argue Lee would have easily outpointed Iaquinta had he stuck to his wrestling instead of choosing to strike with the New Yorker. Dos Anjos has the same 70-inch reach as Iaquinta and is considered a superior striker, so it will be interesting to see whether Lee primarily focuses on taking this fight to the ground.
BetOnline opened Lee as a -135 favorite, with Dos Anjos as the +115 underdog. However, as of early Friday afternoon, RDA was the short -115 “chalk.” Lee was the slight ‘dog at a -105 price.
5Dimes has the total at 4.5 rounds (“over” -140, “under” +120).
As the odds indicate, this is a tough scrap to call. Dos Anjos will be at his best when the fight is standing, but it’s hard to see him avoiding Lee’s takedowns. With the blueprint provided by Covington and Usman, I think Lee will be too powerful and wrestle his way into the win column.
Prediction: Kevin Lee by decision