Ian Machado Garry (15-1 MMA, 8-1 UFC) will be in bounce-back mode for the first time in his career when he takes on 13th-ranked Carlos ‘The Nightmare’ Prates in Saturday’s UFC Kansas City headliner at T-Mobile Center.

As of early Friday morning, most books had Garry installed as a -130 favorite with the total at 3.5 rounds (‘under’ -124, ‘over’ -102 at FanDuel).

The 27-year-old Garry, who is ranked seventh in the welterweight loop, is in bounce-back mode for the first time in his career after losing a unanimous decision (48-47, 48-47, 48-47) to Shavkat Rakhmonov in the UFC 310 co-main event on Dec. 7 of last year.

Prates (21-6 MMA, 4-0 UFC) brings an 11-fight winning streak into this bout. He’s finished each of his last 10 opponents via knockouts inside of two rounds.

Prates has bagged Performance of the Night bonuses in all four of his Octagon appearances. The 31-year-old Brazilian is off a first-round KO win over Neil Magny in the UFC Vegas 100 main event last November.

Prates has collected his other UFC wins over Li Jingliang, Charles Radtke and Trevin Giles. He hasn’t tasted defeat since June of 2019.

Prates has 16 career wins by KO, three by submission and two via decision. He’s been KO’d twice and submitted three times.

Garry owns notable career wins over Michael ‘Venom’ Page, Geoff Neal, Magny and Daniel Rodriguez. He has eight career finishes with seven coming by KO, but his last four scraps have gone the distance.

PREDICTION: Garry’s only career defeat came against who I consider to be the best welterweight on the planet. Although Rakhmonov isn’t the champion right now, he’s currently installed as a -155 favorite vs. Belal Muhammad at BetOnline if that matchup comes to fruition later this year. Garry lost a close decision to Rakhmonov and took that fight on short notice. Now he’s poised to get back on track, so I’m on Garry for one unit, risking 1.3 units. 

**Other Picks**

In the third fight on the main card, Michel Pereira (31-12 MMA, 9-3 UFC) will be looking to get back into the win column vs. Abus Magomedov. The 31-year-old Brazilian had his eight-fight winning streak snapped in a fifth-round KO loss to Anthony Hernandez in the UFC Vegas 99 main event last October.

As of Friday morning, most shops had Pereira listed as a favorite in the 138 to -150 range. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘under’ -152, ‘over’ +120).

Pereira is ranked 14th after winning his first three fights in the middleweight loop via first-round finishes. He earned Performance of the Night bonuses in all three victories, including scalps over Andre Petroski (66-second KO), Michal Oleksiejczuk (51-second rear-naked choke submission at UFC 299) and Ihor Pottieria (54-second guillotine choke at UFC 301).

Abus Magomedov (27-6 MMA, 3-2 UFC) is looking for his third consecutive win after posting back-to-back victories over Warlley Alves and Brunno Ferreira.

PREDICTION: Let’s risk 1.38 units to win one by backing Pereira. 

I’ve got two other fights that I’m looking at, but both fighters are too expensive to back with straight bets. I’m talking about Randy Brown, who is a -265 ‘chalk’ vs. Nicolas Dalby, and David Onama, who is a -175 favorite vs. Giga Chikadze.

Onama is 13-2 overall and 5-2 in the UFC. He’s on a three-fight winning streak since dropping a majority decision to Nate ‘The Train’ Landwehr.

The 36-year-old Chikadze (15-4 MMA, 8-2 UFC) has lost two of his last three bouts and is fighting for just the fourth time since the summer of 2021.

Brown (19-6 MMA, 13-6 UFC) is 9-3 in his last 12 Octagon appearances after losing a split decision to Bryan Battle at UFC 310 in December. We should note that Battle missed weight by four pounds ahead of this contest.

Brown’s only other defeat since 2020 came against Jack Della Maddalena, who is on a 17-fight losing streak and is fighting Muhammad for the welterweight belt in two weeks (after Shavkat was forced out of the bout due to an injury).

The 40-year-old Dalby (23-5-1-2 MMA, 7-4-1-1 UFC) is off a split-decision loss vs. Rina Fakhretdinov last June at UFC Saudia Arabia.

PREDICTION: Let’s risk one unit on a three-leg parlay using Brown (-265), Onama (-175) and Garry (-130) for a +282.94 payout. 

**NOTE: IF Onama and Brown prevail, we’ll be poised to win 3.83 units with only 2.3 units at risk if Garry gets his hand raised. In that scenario, you can let it ride or perhaps come back with one unit or 0.5 units on Prates for a +110 return. That’s your call and that move would become more attractive if Prates’ underdog number gets more generous in the next 36 hours.

If either Onama or Brown loses to kill the parlay, then I’ll personally back Garry for more than the one unit I initially recommended at the top of this story. 

Hope that makes sense!

If not, you can always hit me up on Twitter or at briane.edwards11@gmail.com. Whatever the case, enjoy the show and best of luck with your wagers!