The long-awaited return of Conor ‘The Notorious’ McGregor (22-6 MMA, 10-4 UFC) has finally arrived. The 37-year-old Irishman will make his first walk to the Octagon in five years tonight when he takes on Max ‘Blessed’ Holloway in a rematch more than a dozen years in the making.
As of early this morning, most books had Holloway (27-9 MMA, 23-9 UFC) listed as a favorite in the -225 to -240 range for tonight’s headliner at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. McGregor, who will turn 38 on Tuesday, was an underdog in the +185 to +200 (Caesars) neighborhood.
The total was 2.5 rounds (‘under’ -128, ‘over’ +100). The odds for Holloway to win by KO/TKO were -125, while McGregor’s number to win in the same fashion was +275.
The first meeting between these two legendary fighters was contested in the featherweight division way back on Aug. 17 of 2013 at UFC Boston. McGregor tore his ACL early in the bout, but he was still able to dominate by using his wrestling to coast to a unanimous-decision victory (30-27, 30-27, 30-26).
This time around, McGregor and Holloway are fighting at welterweight in what will be ‘Blessed’s 170-pound debut. McGregor owns a 2-3 record in five welterweight scraps, defeating Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone via 40-second knockout at UFC 246 and winning a rematch vs. Nate Diaz by majority decision (48-47, 47-47, 48-47) at UFC 202.
McGregor hasn’t tasted victory since beating Cerrone on Jan. 18 of 2020. He gave Dustin Poirier a rematch on Jan. 24 of 2021 in the UFC 257 main event in Abu Dhabi, where Poirier earned a second-round KO.
McGregor had previously KO’d Poirier in a featherweight matchup at UFC 178. Following Poirier’s victory, a trilogy bout was booked for UFC 264 in Vegas on July 10 of 2021.
Poirier was winning most of the striking exchanges in Round 1 when McGregor unwisely initiated a clinch. From there, he pulled guard and went for a guillotine choke, the same mistake Poirier made in his loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Poirier patiently worked his way out of the choke and assumed control from the top. He began inflicting some serious damage in ground-and-pound fashion. McGregor eventually worked his way back to his feet.
However, in the final seconds of the stanza when McGregor stepped back after missing a punch, his left foot and lower leg buckled. He fell to the canvas, allowing Poirier to land several ground strikes before the sound of the bell.
McGregor couldn’t get up, and the replays showed us why. His left tibia had snapped in a catastrophic injury.
Since then, McGregor has only been booked for one fight. After serving opposite of Michael Chandler as coaches for Season 31 of The Ultimate Fighter, they were supposed to square off at UFC 303.
McGregor suffered a broken toe in training, though, and was forced to pull out of the scrap 16 days beforehand.
McGregor has spent most of his time since the loss to Poirier partying. Partying hard, too. There have been plenty of controversies as well.
McGregor was found liable in a civil case for sexual assaulting Nikita Hand in a 2018 incident. He has constantly proclaimed his innocence in the case and continued to do so this week.
McGregor faced multiple assault allegations in several different incidents from 2021-23. He also punched the Miami Heat mascot during a halftime skit, sending the man to the emergency room with facial injuries. A woman also alleged that she was assaulted by McGregor in a bathroom at the same Heat game.
In recent months, however, McGregor claims to have found religion. He also says he’s abstained from sex for the first time during this training camp. By all indications, McGregor appears to have sobered up over the last several months.
Before the UFC 229 loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov and the defeats against Poirier, McGregor was the biggest star this sport has ever seen. He won his first seven UFC fights, scoring KO wins inside of two rounds in six of them (with Holloway being the lone exception).
McGregor famously KO’d Jose Aldo in 13 seconds to win the featherweight title. He was immediately booked to face Rafael dos Anjos for the lightweight strap next, but RDA pulled out of the contest two weeks beforehand with a foot injury.
Nate Diaz stepped in on short notice. Due to the limited time frame, it was agreed that the bout would be contested at welterweight. Diaz won by second-round submission.
As previously noted, McGregor narrowly won the rematch in a bloodbath. Next, he took on Eddie Alvarez for the 155-pound belt, beating him via second-round KO at UFC 205 at MSG.
After beating Alvarez, McGregor scored his biggest payday ever in his UD loss to Floyd Mayweather in a boxing match in August of 2017. Since then, McGregor has owned a yacht, had well North of $100 million in the bank and has lived like a rock star rather than a prizefighter.
The 34-year-old Holloway is off a UD loss to Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira in a lightweight bout. The Hawaiian has spent most of his career at featherweight, but he has a 6-2 record in eight career scraps at lightweight.
The former 145-pound champion owns notable career victories over the likes of Poirier, Cub Swanson, Oliveira, Jeremy Stephens, Ricardo Lamas, Anthony Pettis, Aldo (twice), Brian Ortega, Frankie Edgar, Calvin Kattar, Yair Rodriguez, Arnold Allen, The Korean Zombie and Justin Gaethje, who is the current undisputed lightweight kingpin.
With only one exception, a split-decision loss vs. Dennis Bermudez, all of Holloway’s career losses have come against current or former UFC champions.
PREDICTION: McGregor is going to go for the kill early and make no mistake, he’s capable of getting an early finish as he’ll have the power advantage in this weight class. With that said, Holloway’s chin will probably be much better since he didn’t have to go through a grinding weight cut. We’ll see where McGregor’s cardio is if we get to Round 2 and/or 3, but I’m supremely confident that he’ll be nowhere near as fresh as Holloway will be beyond the opening frame.
I think the price on Max is too expensive for a straight wager, although I think it’s ok to have him in a parlay (more on that shortly). Therefore, for Pick #1, I’m going to risk 2.5 units to win 2 units on Holloway’s prop to win by KO/TKO at a -125 price.
However, as a slight hedge with Pick #2, I’ll risk 0.5 units to win 3 units on McGregor to win in Round 1 (+600 odds at FanDuel). In this scenario, I’ll win 0.5 units of profit if McGregor can win in Round 1. If Holloway wins by KO/TKO, I’ll win 1.5 units.
There’s obviously the possibility of losing three units if McGregor wins at any point except the opening stanza or if Holloway wins by submission or decision. Nevertheless, I like this strategy and will assume that risk.
**Other Picks**
In a bantamweight showdown on the main card, most spots have fourth-ranked Cory Sandhagen (18-6 MMA, 11-5 UFC) as a favorite in the -136 (FanDuel) to -145 range vs. Mario Bautista, who is a +122 underdog at Caesars. The total was 2.5 rounds (‘over’ -275, ‘under’ +190).
Sandhagen defeated Bautista by first-round submission back in 2019. ‘The Sandman’s only losses in the UFC have come against current or former UFC champions with only one exception, and that would Umar Nurmagomedov, who owns a 20-1 career record.
Bautista (17-3 MMA, 11-3 UFC) has won nine of his last 10 scraps, but this is a big step up in competition for the MMA Lab team member. None of his nine wins have come over an opponent currently ranked in the 135-pound loop.
Pick #3: Let’s risk 1.36 units to win 1 unit on Sandhagen at -136. Also, for Pick #4, let’s risk 1 unit to win 1.51 units on a two-leg parlay with Holloway and Sandhagen.
Don’t blink for the banger of a lightweight matchup that’ll serve as the main card’s curtain jerker, as King Green and Terrance McKinney are set to throw hands.
As of this morning, most books had this fight listed as a pick ’em with -110 odds either way.
The 31-year-old McKinney (18-8 MMA, 7-5 UFC) is 5-2 in his last seven bouts with five first-round finishes. He finished four of those scraps in 85 seconds or less, including a 24-second KO of Kyle Nelson at UFC Seattle in March.
Only one of McKinney’s 26 career fights have made it to Round 3, but none of them have gone the distance. He has nine career KOs and nine career submissions. All seven of his UFC victories have come in 137 seconds or fewer.
On the flip side, McKinney has been KO’d five times in his career and submitted three times.
The 39-year-old Green (35-17-1-1 MMA, 16-12-1-1 UFC) hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down and is currently on a three-fight winning streak. Green owns notable wins over Stephens, Jim Miller, Tony Ferguson, Al Iaquinta, Lando Vannata, Clay Guida, Josh Thomson and James Krause.
PREDICTION: Since Green is such a savvy veteran with superior fight IQ compared to McKinney, I’ll concede that my confidence level with these bets has wavered throughout the week. Nevertheless, I’m going to back McKinney several different ways. For Pick #5, let’s risk 1 unit to win 2 units on McKinney to win by KO.
As for Pick #6, let’s risk 0.5 units to win 0.88 units for the bout to go ‘under’ 0.5 rounds (2:30) for a +176 payout. And finally for Pick #7, let’s risk 0.25 units to win 0.775 units on McKinney to win in the first two minutes of the fight at +310 odds.
Gable Stevenson won the gold medal for the United States in freestyle wrestling at the 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympic Games. He’s 3-0 since transitioning into MMA with three first-round KOs.
He was the biggest favorite (in the -2600 to -3000 range) in UFC history earlier this week for his Octagon debut tonight vs. Elisha Ellison. However, those odds have been reduced to -1600 at FanDuel and -2000 at most other spots. Ellison is +1050 at BetRivers.
Ellison is 5-2 overall and 0-1 in the UFC after being knocked out in the opening round of his promotional debut vs. Brando Pericic last September.
PREDICTION: For Pick #8, let’s risk 1.4 units to win 1 unit on Stevenson to win by KO in the first round at a -140 price (FanDuel).