As of Friday, eight days ahead of UFC 303 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Diego Lopes (24-6 MMA, 3-1 UFC) was listed as a -135 to -150 favorite vs. Brian ‘T-City’ Ortega in the show’s co-main event. Ortega was a +125 underdog at BetMGM.

Lopes, the UFC’s 14th-ranked featherweight, has ripped off three straight wins via first-round finishes, including an 89-second knockout of Sodiq Yusuff at UFC 300 in April. He made his Octagon debut in May of 2023, dropping a unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) to still-undefeated Movsar Evleov in a contest that won Fight of the Night honors at UFC 288.

The 29-year-old Lopes bounced back from the loss to Evleov by submitting Gavin Tucker 98 seconds into their UFC Nashville showdown last August. The Brazilian won an extra $50,000 by earning a Performance of the Night bonus.

Then at UFC 295 last November, Lopes starched Pat Sabatini with a 90-second KO to earn another POTN bonus.

Ortega (16-3-0-1 MMA, 8-3-0-1 UFC) started his UFC tenure by winning six consecutive fights (really seven, but a first-round submission win over Mike De La Torre was changed to a no-contest after a positive test for drostanolone) via finishes. Those victories earned the Torrance, California, native a title shot against Max Holloway at UFC 231 in December of 2018.

‘Blessed’ retained his belt when the doctors wouldn’t allow Ortega to go out for the fifth and final round. Nevertheless, Ortega won an extra 50K of pay by garnering a Fight of the Night bonus for the fourth time in his first seven UFC scraps.

Ortega was booked to face The Korean Zombie a year later, but he was forced to withdraw from the bout due to a knee injury. He finally took on TKZ 22 months after the loss to Holloway in the UFC Fight Island 6 headliner, winning a UD in blowout fashion (50-45, 50-45, 50-45).

At that time, I wasn’t surprised at all by Ortega’s win. What did floor me was the fact that he didn’t win by using his superior ground game. In fact, most of the 25-minute contest was spent with Ortega getting the best of TKZ with his striking.

It was clearly evident that Ortega had vastly improved his stand-up skills during his 22-month hiatus. The win was so dominant that Ortega was booked to fight Alexander Volkanovski for the 145-pound strap after both men served as coaches on Season 29 of The Ultimate Fighter.

Volkanovski retained his belt with a UD win (49-46, 50-45, 50-44) at UFC 266, but ‘The Great’ nearly lost his strap in two different sequences on the ground. In the third round, Ortega was able to lock in a deep choke that had Volkanovski in a world of trouble.

Ortega is one of the roster’s premier Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners. Nobody gets out of his chokes, but Volkanovski found a way to somehow slither out. Ortega threatened with another choke attempt in Round 4, but Volk escaped once again.

Ten months after losing to Volkanovski, Ortega returned to face Yair Rodriguez in the UFC on ABC 3 main event. However, shortly after landing awkwardly on his shoulder, Ortega verbally tapped out due to injury that resulted in a TKO loss.

The injury sidelined Ortega for 17 months, but he was booked for a rematch against Rodriguez in the UFC Mexico City co-main event this past February. But during Bruce Buffer’s introduction of the fighters, Ortega sprained his ankle when he landed awkwardly warming up in the Octagon.

It was certainly an inauspicious start and Rodriguez was having his way in the first round and the early stages of Round 2. However, Ortega was able to get the fight to the ground midway through the second stanza and completely flip the momentum.

Another takedown early in Round 3 resulted in Ortega finding a way to lock in an arm-triangle choke to force Rodriguez to tap 58 seconds into the frame.

It was Ortega’s eighth career win by submission to go with his three KOs and five victories via decisions.

With the exception of Jose Aldo, Ortega has faced all the legends in UFC featherweight history. Holloway and Volkanovski were both long-time champions, while Rodriguez is the former interim featherweight champ.

Frankie Edgar, who Ortega beat by first-round KO at UFC 222 back in 2018, is the promotion’s former lightweight champion who fought for the featherweight belt unsuccessfully three different times. Ortega also owns notable scalps over the likes of Clay Guida, Renato Moicano, Cub Swanson and TKZ.

Therefore, this is a huge step up in competition for Lopes, who is also a black belt in BJJ. Lopez owns 12 career wins by submissions and 10 via KOs. He’s never been submitted, taking four of his defeats from the judges and two by KOs.

PREDICTION: I’m on Ortega for two units (to win 2.5 units) at the +125 underdog odds via BetMGM.