Dustin-Justin, Part 2? Caesars has Gaethje slightly favored

Dustin-Justin, Part 2? Caesars has Gaethje slightly favored

With all of the top contenders in the UFC’s shark-tank loop currently booked with fights, there have been rumblings in recent weeks of a rematch between Dustin ‘The Diamond’ Poirier and Justin ‘The Highlight’ Gaethje.

Poirier fanned those flames this morning with this tweet:

Dustin-Justin, Part 2? Caesars has Gaethje slightly favored

Both perennial lightweight contenders are fan favorites. Both are 34 years old. Both have held the interim 155-pound belt, only to twice fail in their quests to become the UFC’s undisputed lightweight champion.

They also waged an all-time thriller against each other back on April 14 of 2018 in Glendale, AZ. On that night, Poirier beat Gaethje by fourth-round KO in what was dubbed the 2018 Fight of the Year by MMAWeekly, MMAJunkie, MMAFighting and the Wrestling Observer Newsletter.

After both men won the interim strap – Poirier with a unanimous-decision win over then-featherweight champ Max Holloway at UFC 236 and Gaethje with a fifth-round knockout win over Tony Ferguson, who was on a 12-fight winning streak at the time – they lost by submission to Khabib Nurmagomedov, who retired with an undefeated record.

Nurmagomedov has stated many times that, “Poirier was my toughest fight” and “Gaethje hit and kick harder than any of my opponents.”

After losing to Nurmagomedov at UFC 242, Poirier (29-7-0-1 MMA, 21-6-0-1 UFC) got a second chance at UFC gold after ripping off three straight wins over Dan Hooker (UD/Fight of the Night) and Conor McGregor (twice by TKO, one Performance of the Night). In a back-and-forth battle against Charles Oliveira, Poirier dominated Round 1 with his precise striking.

He was getting the best of Oliveira on the feet again in the early stages of Round 2, but that’s when the Brazilian started rallying thanks to his grappling. Then in Round 3, Oliveira was able to get the fight to the ground and sink in a rear-naked choke for the finish 62 seconds into the stanza.

Poirier bounced back at UFC 281 in another FOTN by defeating Michael Chandler in the third round via rear-naked choke at MSG in NYC.

Gaethje (24-4 MMA, 7-4 UFC) ended Ferguson’s incredible winning streak at UFC 249 on May 9 of 2020. It was the first major sporting event of any sort in nearly two months after the global pandemic halted college basketball conference tournaments on March 12. And man, did it ever deliver, thanks in large part to Gaethje’s spectacular performance. (Gaethje earned double bonuses for FOTN and POTN honors like he did in his Octagon debut vs. Michael Johnson.)

Gaethje then faced Nurmagomedov at UFC 254, losing by triangle choke 94 seconds into the second round after a back-and-forth opening frame.

‘The Highight’ earned a second title shot after besting Chandler via UD at UFC 268 in the 2021 Fight of the Year at MSG in NYC. Like Poirier, Gaethje battered and bloodied Oliveira in the opening minutes, dropping him with powerful punches two different times.

However, ‘Do Bronx’ dropped Gaethje later in the round and then finished him on the ground with an RNC. Gaethje bounced back two weeks ago by garnering his sixth career FOTN bonus (in 11 UFC scraps) with a UD victory over Rafael Fiziev, who saw his six-fight winning streak snapped.

Poirier is currently ranked second and Gaethje is third in the UFC’s lightweight rankings. Oliveira, the No. 1 contender who lost his belt to Islam Makhachev via second-round submission at UFC 280 last October, is set to face fourth-ranked Beneil Dariush on May 6 at UFC 288. (Dariush is a -120 to -125 favorite at most books.)

The winner of Dariush-Oliveira will most likely get the next crack at Makhachev, who successfully defended his strap for the first time with a UD victory over featherweight kingpin Alexander Volkanovski on Feb. 12 at UFC 284.

The fifth-ranked Chandler has already lost to Oliveira, Gaethje and Poirier, while sixth-ranked Fiziev just lost to Gaethje. Therefore, it seems certain that Gaethje and Porier will be booked for a second time really soon.

Although Poirier came out victorious over Gaethje in the first scrap, he probably didn’t walk without a limp for a month. Gaethje absolutely destroyed his legs with relentless kicks that had Poirier struggling to stand (much less move) at the end of both the second and third rounds.

Going into Round 4, judge Derek Cleary had the fight scored 28-28. Cleary had given Gaethje Rounds 2 and 3, but ‘The Highlight’ had been deducted a point in the third stanza due to an inadvertent eye poke. Judges Dave Hagen and Sal D’Amato had Poirier ahead 29-27, giving him Rounds 1 and 2.

This past Thursday (March 30), Caesars opened Gaethje as a -125 favorite vs. Poirier, who is a +105 underdog. Any bets on this wager will void if they haven’t faced each other before Dec. 31.

**Other UFC Future Odds**

-Caesars has heavyweight champ Jon Jones installed as a -330 favorite (-310 at FanDuel) vs. Stipe Miocic, who is a +260 underdog (+230 at FanDuel).

-DraftKings has McGregor vs. Chandler as a pick ’em (-110 either way). Caesars has McGregor at -115 odds, with Chandler at -105.

-Caesars has Colby Covington as a small -115 ‘chalk’ vs. welterweight champion Leon Edwards (-105).

-Caesars has Volkanovski as a -410 favorite for his next title defense vs. Yair Rodriguez, who is a +320 underdog.

-Valentina Shevchenko recently lost her flyweight strap to Alexa Grasso, and a rematch is expected to take place later this year. BetOnline has Shevchenko installed as a -195 favorite, with Grasso as a +170 underdog.

-Aljamain Sterling is a -115 to -122 favorite at most spots for his next bantamweight title defense vs. Henry Cejudo, who has been retired since 2020 but is set to return to the cage later this year.