Todays Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Yankees at Orioles Matchup Prediction for Today

The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees are set to clash on July 14, 2024, in what promises to be an exciting American League East matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Orioles holding a 57-38 record and the Yankees slightly ahead at 58-39. This game is particularly important as it marks the third game in their series, with both teams vying for playoff positioning., The Orioles will send Dean Kremer to the mound. Despite his 4-5 record and 4.42 ERA, Kremer’s underlying metrics suggest he might struggle. His 5.49 xERA indicates he has been a bit lucky this year, and he’s projected to allow 3.0 earned runs over 4.8 innings, which isn’t promising against a potent Yankees lineup. Kremer’s high-flyball rate (40%) could be problematic against the Yankees, who rank 2nd in MLB with 135 home runs., Carlos Rodon will start for the Yankees. Rodon has a 9-7 record and a 4.63 ERA. However, his 3.93 SIERA suggests he’s been unlucky this season and might perform better moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs. Like Kremer, Rodon is also a high-flyball pitcher (44%), which could be dangerous against the Orioles’ MLB-leading offense in home runs., Offensively, the Orioles boast the 2nd-best lineup in MLB, ranking 7th in batting average and 1st in home runs. Ramon Urias has been their standout hitter over the last week with a .785 OPS. The Yankees aren’t far behind, with the 4th-best offense and Juan Soto leading the charge recently, posting a .360 batting average and 1.149 OPS over the last week., Both bullpens are middle-of-the-pack, with the Orioles ranked 14th and the Yankees 19th in advanced-stat Power Rankings. This game is projected to be a high-scoring affair, with a game total set at 9.0 runs. Given the Orioles’ slight edge in implied win probability at -115, their powerful offense and favorable projections against Rodon’s flyball tendencies might give them the upper hand in this tightly contested matchup.

Sunday Series Game 3 Prediction Explination for Yankees vs Orioles Matchup

Carlos Rodon is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #23 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game., New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline, Aaron Judge’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 101.9-mph EV last year has dropped to 99.6-mph., Aaron Judge – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+115/-145), New York’s 89.8-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the majors: #3 overall., Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Dean Kremer has used his secondary pitches 5.6% more often this year (53.9%) than he did last year (48.3%)., Dean Kremer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140), Typically, batters like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Carlos Rodon., Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150), In today’s game, Anthony Santander is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40.7% rate (98th percentile)., Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150), Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 13 of his last 32 games (+30.25 Units / 95% ROI), Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+310/-450)

This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance., Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power., Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it., A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts., This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering., This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.