Todays Matchup Details

Rockies at Reds Matchup Prediction for Today

The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies face off again on July 9, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in the second game of their series. The Reds, currently sitting at 43-48, are having a below-average season, while the Rockies, at 32-59, are enduring a particularly rough year. The Reds shut out the Rockies 6-0 in their last game on July 8, highlighting the disparity between the two teams., Nick Lodolo, the #42 ranked starting pitcher in MLB, will take the mound for the Reds. Lodolo has been solid this season with an 8-3 record and a stellar 2.96 ERA, though his 3.74 xFIP suggests he might regress. Despite a projected 4.9 innings pitched today, Lodolo is expected to allow just 2.0 earned runs and strike out 6.3 batters, both strong indicators of his effectiveness. However, his high walk (1.3) and hit (4.3) projections could be areas of concern., Opposing him will be Cal Quantrill for the Rockies. Quantrill, who has a 6-6 record and a good 3.77 ERA, also has a higher xFIP of 4.40, suggesting some luck in his performance. Quantrill’s projections are less favorable, with an average of 5.4 innings pitched, 3.1 earned runs, and 5.1 strikeouts. His high walk (1.8) and hit (5.7) projections could spell trouble against a Reds lineup that, while ranking poorly in most offensive categories, leads the league in stolen bases., The Reds’ offense, led by Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer, has shown flashes of brilliance despite overall struggles. De La Cruz boasts a .813 OPS with 15 home runs and 45 stolen bases this season. Steer has been particularly hot over the past week, with a 1.088 OPS and three home runs., The Rockies’ offense, though average overall, has been buoyed by Brenton Doyle. Doyle has a .780 OPS and has been on fire recently, with a .474 batting average and a 1.513 OPS over the last week., Both teams’ bullpens rank poorly, with the Reds at 24th and the Rockies at 23rd in the Power Rankings. This could make for a high-scoring affair, aligning with the game total of 8.5 runs., THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Reds a 60% chance of winning, slightly above the implied win probability of 61%. The Rockies, meanwhile, are projected to lose with a 40% chance of winning. With a high implied team total of 4.75 runs for the Reds and 3.75 for the Rockies, expect some fireworks in Cincinnati.

Tuesday Prediction Explination for Rockies vs Reds Matchup

Cal Quantrill’s change-up percentage has increased by 14.3% from last season to this one (22.4% to 36.7%) ., Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145), Nolan Jones is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season., Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115), The Colorado Rockies bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT)., Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline, Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds., Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-175), Jonathan India’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 92.4-mph mark last season has decreased to 87-mph., Jonathan India – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145), Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game., Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155), The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+13.80 Units / 33% ROI), Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110), The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 55 games (+6.85 Units / 12% ROI), Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+155), Will Benson has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.60 Units / 61% ROI), Will Benson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)

Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result., The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher., Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs., Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs., Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power., This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.