Todays Game 3 Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Boston at Baltimore Game 3 Matchup Today

When estimating his home run ability, Triston Casas ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Triston Casas is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.

High humidity has a small but significant correlation with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-highest humidity on the schedule today at 77%.

Albert Suarez will have the handedness advantage against Triston Casas in today’s game.

Triston Casas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s BABIP skill is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ceddanne Rafaela has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Out of every team playing today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.

In notching a .321 BABIP this year, Ceddanne Rafaela grades out in the 79th percentile.

The #9 ballpark in the game for boosting base hits to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Ramon Urias has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Ramon Urias will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Ramon Urias has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.3-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 87.9-mph mark.

Nick Sogard pulls many of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 16th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.

Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

The #9 venue in the game for boosting BABIP to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Gunnar Henderson will have the handedness advantage against Brayan Bello today… and moreover, Bello has a large platoon split.

Masataka Yoshida’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Masataka Yoshida will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Albert Suarez in today’s matchup.

Masataka Yoshida hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Santander in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Extreme groundball bats like Anthony Santander usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best batter in baseball.

Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the opposite that Albert Suarez throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage in today’s game.

Nick Sogard has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits in recent games, hitting balls between -4° and 26° 64% of the time in the last 14 days.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the shallowest right field dimensions among all stadiums.

David Hamilton will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Albert Suarez in today’s game.

Compared to his seasonal average of 14.6°, David Hamilton has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 24.2° figure in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Connor Wong is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.

Connor Wong’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved in recent games, going from 17.4% on the season to 30% over the last 7 days.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Jarren Duran is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage over Albert Suarez in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Gunnar Henderson will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s appraisal, Brayan Bello’s overall pitching ability grades out in the 80th percentile out of all starters in baseball currently.

Tallying 91.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Brayan Bello checks in at the 75th percentile.

The #1 park in the majors for suppressing walks, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser as the 19th-best batter in baseball as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Colton Cowser is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

Colton Cowser will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today’s game… and the cherry on top, Bello has a large platoon split.

Colton Cowser will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Eloy Jimenez’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Eloy Jimenez is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Eloy Jimenez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Eloy Jimenez will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

When assessing his home run ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Albert Suarez throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an advantage today.

Wilyer Abreu hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Anthony Santander will hold that advantage today.

When it comes to his home run ability, Cedric Mullins II ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Considering Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Cedric Mullins II will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.

Cedric Mullins II pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Cedric Mullins II will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Compared to his seasonal average of 23.7°, Cedric Mullins II has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 31.6° mark in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Jackson Holliday will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today’s matchup… and the cherry on top, Bello has a large platoon split.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jackson Holliday will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

This season, Jarren Duran has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 94.1 mph compared to last year’s 90.3 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eloy Jimenez in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Masataka Yoshida has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 5.5% seasonal rate to 12.5% over the last 7 days.

Rafael Devers’s 93.8-mph average exit velocity ranks among the elite in the majors this year: 98th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jackson Holliday ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Sporting a .341 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Connor Wong grades out in the 80th percentile.

Ramon Urias’s launch angle this season (11.6°) is a significant increase over his 7.7° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Brayan Bello has relied on his four-seamer 17.8% less often this season (2.9%) than he did last year (20.7%).

Out of all starters, Brayan Bello’s fastball velocity of 95.2 mph is in the 86th percentile this year.

Saturday Game 3 player match stat slumps with Red Sox vs Orioles Matchup

The #3 park in the majors for suppressing home runs to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the 9th-highest average fence height in MLB.

Triston Casas will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Triston Casas’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last season to this one, falling from 40% to 30.8%.

Triston Casas’s quickness has declined this year. His 24.86 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.12 ft/sec now.

Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today’s game.

The #3 park in MLB for suppressing home runs to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Albert Suarez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s matchup.

Ramon Urias is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Brayan Bello will hold the platoon advantage over Ramon Urias in today’s game… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Bello’s large platoon split.

Typically, bats like Ramon Urias who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Brayan Bello.

Ramon Urias’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last year to this one, going from 43.5% to 34.2%.

Over the last two weeks, Ramon Urias’s 26.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 34.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Sogard in the 12th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Nick Sogard is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Nick Sogard will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Albert Suarez in today’s game.

Today, Gunnar Henderson is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.4% rate (80th percentile).

In the last week’s worth of games, Gunnar Henderson’s 5.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.5%.

Despite posting a .394 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gunnar Henderson has had positive variance on his side given the .028 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .366.

Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Masataka Yoshida will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Masataka Yoshida has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .288 rate is a good deal higher than his .264 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Anthony Santander has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 43.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal higher than his 35.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In today’s matchup, Rafael Devers is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.3% rate (79th percentile).

Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Rafael Devers in today’s game.

Rafael Devers’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 95.9-mph seasonal average has dropped to 87.4-mph in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Hamilton in the 22nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

David Hamilton is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for David Hamilton in today’s game.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Nick Sogard ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Nick Sogard will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Nick Sogard has been cold recently, posting a 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

The deepest LF fences in MLB are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Hitting from the same side that Albert Suarez throws from, Connor Wong encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Connor Wong will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Ceddanne Rafaela has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 6.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 92.6-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 80.1-mph in the past 14 days.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jarren Duran today.

Jarren Duran’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, falling from 14% on the season to 0% in the past 7 days.

As it relates to his home runs, Gunnar Henderson has experienced some positive variance this year. His 34.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.4.

The 3rd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

It is expected that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Ben May) calling pitches in this game.

Connor Wong, the Red Sox’s expected catcher in today’s game, grades out as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Due to his large platoon split, Brayan Bello will be at a disadvantage facing 6 hitters in the projected offense who bat from the other side in today’s outing.

Colton Cowser has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s deepest LF fences today.

Colton Cowser has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 13.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 5.9% over the past week.

Colton Cowser has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph dropping to 86.6-mph over the past 14 days.

There has been a significant decline in Triston Casas’s launch angle from last season’s 15.6° to 10.6° this year.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Triston Casas has been lucky this year. His .358 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .260.

Given Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Eloy Jimenez will be at a colossal disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in this game.

Extreme groundball bats like Eloy Jimenez are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

Eloy Jimenez has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 8.9% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the last 14 days.

Because groundball pitchers have a big edge over groundball bats, Brayan Bello and his 51.4% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in today’s matchup being matched up with 3 opposing GB bats.

Despite posting a .358 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jarren Duran has had positive variance on his side given the .025 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .333.

Wilyer Abreu will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Wilyer Abreu has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .271 BA is inflated compared to his .231 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Anthony Santander’s BABIP ability is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In the past 7 days, Anthony Santander’s 12.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 38.6%.

Eloy Jimenez’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (1.5°) is considerably lower than his 6° mark last season.

In the past 14 days, Eloy Jimenez’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 9.4%.

Cedric Mullins II is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.

Cedric Mullins II has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 85.1-mph in the last two weeks.

Cedric Mullins II has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 21.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is considerably higher than his 15.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cedric Mullins II in the 9th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

Extreme flyball hitters like Jackson Holliday usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

Jackson Holliday has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 16.7% seasonal rate has lowered to 8.3% over the past week.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Wilyer Abreu has been very fortunate this year. His .361 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .328.

Over the past week, David Hamilton’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 87.4 mph to 83.5 mph.

David Hamilton has been lucky this year, notching a .302 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .280 — a .022 disparity.

Connor Wong’s average exit velocity has decreased lately; his 86.4-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 80.7-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

Connor Wong’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last season to this one, going from 44.3% to 37.6%.

Colton Cowser’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, decreasing from 17.6% on the season to 0% over the past week.

Anthony Santander has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .355 rate is considerably higher than his .338 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

By putting up a .229 BABIP this year, Anthony Santander is ranked in the 3rd percentile.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Masataka Yoshida has had positive variance on his side this year. His .344 mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .328.

With a .220 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Cedric Mullins II is positioned in the 13th percentile.

With a .256 BABIP this year, Cedric Mullins II has performed in the 12th percentile.

In the last week’s worth of games, Jackson Holliday’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 97.2 mph to 91.1 mph.

Rafael Devers’s launch angle of late (8.3° in the last 14 days) is considerably lower than his 12.3° seasonal mark.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.353) provides evidence that Rafael Devers has been lucky this year with his .392 actual wOBA.

Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Brayan Bello in today’s game.