Series Game 2 Matchup Details

Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins
Series Game 2
Wednesday, July 3rd
2024-07-03 18:40:00 first pitch / Game start time

MLB Player match stats positives for Boston at Miami Series Game 2 Matchup

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s evaluation, Brayan Bello’s overall pitching ability grades out in the 83rd percentile out of all starters in Major League Baseball right now.

Recording 93 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Brayan Bello places him the 81st percentile.

Nick Mahrley projects as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be calling pitches today.

The 4th-deepest RF fences among all major league stadiums are found in LoanDepot Park.

Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all parks, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.

The #3 ballpark in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park.

Nick Gordon will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello today… and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split.

Nick Gordon hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Nick Gordon will hold that advantage today.

In the past 7 days, Nick Gordon’s 70% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Bryan De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

Bryan De La Cruz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Bryan De La Cruz has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.2-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 89.5-mph EV.

Last year, Bryan De La Cruz had an average launch angle of 12.3° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 18.2°.

Otto Lopez’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

LoanDepot Park profiles as the #3 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Otto Lopez will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.321) provides evidence that Otto Lopez has had bad variance on his side this year with his .273 actual wOBA.

Out of every team playing today, the 4th-worst outfield defense is that of the the Miami Marlins.

David Hamilton’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, increasing from 17.9% on the season to 30% in the last 14 days.

David Hamilton is in the 98th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (51.3% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 78th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Josh Bell is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.

Josh Bell will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Josh Bell has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 6.8% seasonal rate to 12.9% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 85th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.

Jesus Sanchez will have the handedness advantage over Brayan Bello in today’s matchup… and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 80th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Jesus Sanchez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.4-mph average to last season’s 90.3-mph mark.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Rob Refsnyder ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Rob Refsnyder is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

In MLB, LoanDepot Park’s CF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.

Rob Refsnyder will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Rogers in today’s matchup.

In comparison to his 87.7-mph average last year, Rob Refsnyder’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 90.3 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Romy Gonzalez in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Romy Gonzalez will hold the platoon advantage against Trevor Rogers in today’s game.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.6) implies that Romy Gonzalez has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his 11.5 actual HR/600.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 16th-best hitter in MLB.

Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Rafael Devers has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 102.7-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 93.7-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 89th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this game.

Because of Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.4) suggests that Jazz Chisholm Jr. has had bad variance on his side this year with his 17.6 actual HR/600.

Dominic Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.

Dominic Smith has made notable gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 7.1% seasonal rate to 18.2% in the past two weeks.

Dominic Smith’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (28.6° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit higher than his 19° seasonal mark.

Rob Refsnyder’s BABIP talent is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Romy Gonzalez has had some very poor luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .226 figure is a fair amount lower than his .252 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Xavier Edwards will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Wong in the 78th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Connor Wong is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.

Batting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Connor Wong will have an advantage in today’s game.

As it relates to his home run ability, Jake Burger ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jake Burger is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.

Jake Burger will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jake Burger’s true offensive talent to be a .326, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .059 gap between that figure and his actual .267 wOBA.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s BABIP skill is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will have an advantage in today’s game.

Ceddanne Rafaela hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Rafael Devers has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last year’s 94.6-mph average.

In the last week’s worth of games, Rafael Devers’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.6%.

Josh Bell has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.3-mph to 91.6-mph over the past 14 days.

Ranking in the 82nd percentile, the hardest ball Romy Gonzalez has connected with since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 112.8 mph — an advanced indication of underlying power skill.

Compared to his seasonal average of 15.4°, Connor Wong has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 31.5° figure in the last 7 days.

Ranking in the 90th percentile, Connor Wong has notched a .370 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Nick Gordon’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (21.7° in the last two weeks) is quite a bit higher than his 13.3° seasonal mark.

Because flyball batters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Brayan Bello (51.9% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 3 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Jarren Duran is projected as the 9th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this game.

Jarren Duran has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 9.3% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the past 7 days.

Tyler O’Neill projects as the 13th-best home run batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Tyler O’Neill is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.

Hitting from the opposite that Trevor Rogers throws from, Tyler O’Neill will have an edge in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xavier Edwards in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Boston Red Sox offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 7th-luckiest offense in the league this year.

Dominic Smith’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (19°) is quite a bit better than his 15.9° angle last year.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (15.3) suggests that Dominic Smith has been unlucky this year with his 10.6 actual HR/600.

In the last week’s worth of games, Ceddanne Rafaela’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.9% up to 11.1%.

Ceddanne Rafaela has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 96.1-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal average of 93-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O’Neill in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 85th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Tyler O’Neill’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 98.3-mph over the course of the season to 106.5-mph recently.

Tyler O’Neill’s launch angle of late (31.5° in the last 14 days) is quite a bit higher than his 20.8° seasonal mark.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Jake Burger ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (David Hamilton, Romy Gonzalez, Tyler O’Neill).

Trevor Rogers will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his metrics in all categories.

David Hamilton ranks in the 79th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (17.9% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Jarren Duran has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 97.6-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

In the past two weeks, Jarren Duran’s 21.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.2%.

Wednesday Series Game 2 player match stat slumps with Red Sox vs Marlins Matchup

The Miami Marlins have been the unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future, According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Connor Wong (the Red Sox’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) grades out as a weak pitch framer.

LoanDepot Park grades out as the #7 stadium in the game for base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Brayan Bello will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

In his previous game started, Brayan Bello gave up a colossal 7 earned runs.

Nick Gordon is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

This year, Nick Gordon has been pinch hit for in 18% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -9° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate — favorable for pitching.

Nick Gordon’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 87.1-mph seasonal average has fallen to 85-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

LoanDepot Park projects as the #23 venue in the majors for righty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Brayan Bello will have the handedness advantage over Bryan De La Cruz in today’s game… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Bello’s large platoon split.

Bryan De La Cruz has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and will be challenged by the league’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Otto Lopez is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.

Brayan Bello will have the handedness advantage against Otto Lopez in today’s game… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Bello’s large platoon split.

Otto Lopez has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 4th-deepest RF fences today.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, David Hamilton ranks in the 24th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

David Hamilton is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.

Josh Bell has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Typically, bats like Josh Bell who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Brayan Bello.

Josh Bell’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, falling from 14.2% on the season to 6.3% over the last week.

Jesus Sanchez has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.

Jesus Sanchez has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 12.1% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past 7 days.

Jesus Sanchez’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased in recent games, falling from 39.7% on the season to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks LoanDepot Park as the 8th-worst venue in MLB for left-handed home runs.

Rob Refsnyder will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Rob Refsnyder’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, decreasing from 10.9% to 7.8%.

Romy Gonzalez is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

This year, Romy Gonzalez has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 46% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter.

Romy Gonzalez has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and will be challenged by the league’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Trevor Rogers throws from, Rafael Devers has a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Rafael Devers has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Rafael Devers will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Bryan De La Cruz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 10.8% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past week.

Over the past 7 days, Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal EV of 95.4 mph to 80.7 mph.

Dominic Smith is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.

Batting from the same side that Trevor Rogers throws from, Dominic Smith will have a disadvantage today.

Dominic Smith will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Despite posting a .386 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Rob Refsnyder has been very fortunate given the .060 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .326.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xavier Edwards in the 4th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Xavier Edwards is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Connor Wong today.

In the last week, Connor Wong’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5% down to 0%.

Connor Wong’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 91.1-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 68.6-mph over the past week.

Last season, Jazz Chisholm Jr. had a launch angle of 17.6° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this season he experienced a significant decline to just 12.3°.

Brayan Bello will have the handedness advantage against Jake Burger in today’s matchup… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Bello’s large platoon split.

Jake Burger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Over the last 7 days, Jake Burger’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.3% down to 0%.

Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s game.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, decreasing from 15.6% on the season to 0% in the past 14 days.

Brayan Bello struggled when it came to striking hitters out in his last GS and compiled 2 Ks.

Among all SPs, Brayan Bello’s fastball spin rate of 2083 rpm grades out in the 16th percentile since the start of last season.

Trevor Rogers will have the handedness advantage over Jarren Duran today.

In today’s matchup, Jarren Duran is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39% rate (96th percentile).

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jarren Duran in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 11th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

In today’s game, Tyler O’Neill is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34% rate (80th percentile).

Tyler O’Neill will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Tyler O’Neill has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 16.7% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Xavier Edwards will have a tough time against Brayan Bello and his large platoon split in today’s matchup.

Among all starters, Trevor Rogers’s fastball velocity of 91.4 mph ranks in the 19th percentile this year.

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Trevor Rogers has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 55.1% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.

Trevor Rogers has recorded a 4.66 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that concentrates on the aspects of pitching most within the pitcher’s control) this year, grading out in the 24th percentile.

Placing in the 19th percentile, Trevor Rogers has compiled an 18.4% K% this year.