Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Boston at Los Angeles Matchup Today

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Shohei Ohtani ranks as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball.

Shohei Ohtani is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

Dodger Stadium projects as the #1 park in baseball for lefty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Dodger Stadium has the 5th-shallowest CF dimensions in the league.

Among all parks, Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Tyler O’Neill as the league’s 19th-best home run batter.

Tyler O’Neill is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.

Dodger Stadium projects as the #1 park in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

When assessing his BABIP talent, Teoscar Hernandez is projected as the 10th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Teoscar Hernandez is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 2nd-best for hitting of all games today.

The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 6th-worst out of every team on the slate today.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Teoscar Hernandez will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Gavin Stone throws from, Dominic Smith will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Dominic Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Freddie Freeman as the 4th-best batter in MLB as it relates to his batting average ability.

Freddie Freeman is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.

David Hamilton is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andy Pages in the 80th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Andy Pages is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Smith ranks as the 19th-best hitter in baseball.

Will Smith is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Hitting from the opposite that Gavin Stone throws from, Masataka Yoshida will have the upper hand today.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 15th-best hitter in baseball.

Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

When it comes to his strikeout skill, Nick Pivetta projects as the 15th-best pitcher in MLB currently, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Chris Taylor, Teoscar Hernandez, James Outman).

Considering that groundball pitchers have a substantial edge over groundball bats, Nick Pivetta and his 38.4% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in today’s game facing 3 opposing GB bats.

Nick Pivetta was rolling in his last game started and posted 10 strikeouts.

Nick Pivetta’s slider utilization has increased by 11.1% from last season to this one (17.4% to 28.5%) .

James Outman will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and James Outman will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Andy Pages will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 78th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Wilyer Abreu will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Gavin Stone in today’s matchup.

Wilyer Abreu hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Wilyer Abreu has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 12.3% seasonal rate to 17.6% in the past 14 days.

Connor Wong’s BABIP skill is projected in the 75th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When assessing his home run skill, Teoscar Hernandez ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Connor Wong has recorded a .354 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 87th percentile.

Connor Wong has notched a .307 batting average this year, grading out in the 96th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 13th-best hitter in the league when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Freddie Freeman ranks as the 11th-best batter in the league.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 80th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Dodger Stadium ranks as the #2 park in MLB for home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

With 6 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Gavin Stone will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Gavin Lux will have an advantage in today’s game.

Gavin Lux hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Will Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

When estimating his home run talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Tyler O’Neill ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Tyler O’Neill has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.1-mph average to last season’s 92.8-mph figure.

Jarren Duran will hold the platoon advantage against Gavin Stone today.

Jarren Duran hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league’s 9th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Over the last two weeks, Ceddanne Rafaela’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.5%.

Miguel Rojas will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

In terms of plate discipline, Miguel Rojas’s ability is quite impressive, sporting a 1.74 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 87th percentile.

Hitting from the opposite that Gavin Stone throws from, David Hamilton will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

In the past 7 days, David Hamilton’s 80% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 52.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nick Pivetta in the 77th percentile as it relates to his overall pitching abilities.

Checking in at the 86th percentile, Nick Pivetta has notched a 4.34 K/BB rate this year.

Freddie Freeman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today’s game.

James Outman has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.7-mph average to last year’s 92.4-mph EV.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jarren Duran ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Chris Taylor will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Chris Taylor has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.4-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 85.7-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Extreme groundball batters like Gavin Lux usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Dominic Smith has made big improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 8.9% seasonal rate to 15% in the past two weeks.

Dominic Smith has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph to 91.9-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Batting from the opposite that Gavin Stone throws from, Rafael Devers will have an edge in today’s game.

Miguel Rojas’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Friday player match stat slumps with Red Sox vs Dodgers Matchup

Despite posting a .429 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Shohei Ohtani has had positive variance on his side given the .027 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .402.

Batting from the same side that Gavin Stone throws from, Tyler O’Neill will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Tyler O’Neill in today’s matchup.

Tyler O’Neill has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 14.9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Tyler O’Neill has had some very good luck this year. His .354 rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .321.

Batting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Teoscar Hernandez will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Teoscar Hernandez has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Teoscar Hernandez has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 14.7% seasonal rate has fallen to 4% in the past two weeks.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Teoscar Hernandez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 95.6 mph to 87.1 mph.

Over the past 7 days, Teoscar Hernandez’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.7%.

Dominic Smith is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

This year, Dominic Smith has been pulled from the game early in 21% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.

Dominic Smith will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.213) may lead us to conclude that Dominic Smith has been lucky this year with his .233 actual batting average.

With a .352 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, Dominic Smith is ranked in the 25th percentile.

In the last two weeks, Freddie Freeman’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.8% down to 3.6%.

In the past 14 days, Freddie Freeman’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal mark of 91.9 mph to 88 mph.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, David Hamilton ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

This year, David Hamilton has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 18% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for David Hamilton in today’s matchup.

David Hamilton’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 86.7-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 66-mph over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates David Hamilton’s true offensive skill to be a .282, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .041 disparity between that figure and his actual .323 wOBA.

Batting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Andy Pages faces a tough challenge today.

Typically, hitters like Andy Pages who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Nick Pivetta.

Over the last 7 days, Andy Pages’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.3% down to 0%.

In the last 14 days, Andy Pages’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 90.9 mph to 85.2 mph.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Andy Pages’s 6.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.9%.

Batting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Will Smith will have a disadvantage today.

Extreme groundball batters like Will Smith tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Will Smith has struggled with his Barrel% lately; his 12% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

In terms of his batting average, Will Smith has had some very good luck this year. His .272 BA has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .253.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chris Taylor in the 20th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Chris Taylor is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Nick Pivetta will have the handedness advantage over Chris Taylor in today’s game.

Chris Taylor has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 8.8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past 7 days.

Chris Taylor’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, decreasing from 13.2% on the season to 0% in the past 7 days.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Masataka Yoshida has been pinch hit for 10% of the time.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Masataka Yoshida in today’s game.

Masataka Yoshida’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 87.4-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 83.9-mph in the past two weeks.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Rafael Devers in today’s game.

Rafael Devers has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 38.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is inflated compared to his 28.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Projected catcher Connor Wong grades out as a weak pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nick Pivetta in today’s matchup.

James Outman is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.

When starting against a northpaw this year, James Outman has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 20% of the time.

James Outman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Typically, hitters like James Outman who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Nick Pivetta.

James Outman has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 11.2% rate last year has fallen to 5.5% this season.

Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

25% of the time that Wilyer Abreu has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Wilyer Abreu in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his batting average, Wilyer Abreu has had some very good luck this year. His .265 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .220.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Outman in the 10th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Connor Wong is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

Gavin Stone will have the handedness advantage over Connor Wong in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Connor Wong in today’s game.

Connor Wong’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 89.1-mph mark last year has dropped off to 86.2-mph.

Connor Wong has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.2-mph dropping to 76.5-mph over the last two weeks.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jarren Duran in today’s game.

Jarren Duran’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 93.6-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 82.1-mph in the last week.

Jarren Duran’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, going from 14.4% on the season to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Despite posting a .350 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jarren Duran has been very fortunate given the .018 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.

Freddie Freeman’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls lately (6.3° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is quite a bit worse than his 14.6° seasonal mark.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Gavin Stone throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will have a tough matchup in today’s game.

Ceddanne Rafaela will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Ceddanne Rafaela has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 7.6% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 7 days.

Over the last week, Ceddanne Rafaela’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal average of 93.8 mph to 85.8 mph.

It may be sensible to expect negative regression for the Boston Red Sox offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

Gavin Stone will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats across the board.

With a 3.60 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that deals with the things most within a pitcher’s control), Gavin Stone falls in the 75th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Lux in the 25th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Gavin Lux is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

When starting against a northpaw this year, Gavin Lux has been pinch hit for 10% of the time.

In the past 7 days, Gavin Lux’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 10.9%.

Gavin Lux has been cold lately, putting up a 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) in the last 14 days.

Tyler O’Neill has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .252 BA is significantly inflated relative to his .214 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Stone to throw 85 pitches today (4th-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

When it comes to his home run ability, Miguel Rojas ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Miguel Rojas is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Miguel Rojas has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 13% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.

Batting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Miguel Rojas will be at a disadvantage today.

Miguel Rojas has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.

The 2nd-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The 8.8% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox ranks them as the #8 team in baseball this year by this standard.

Boston’s 92.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #6 group of hitters in Major League Baseball this year by this metric.

Gavin Lux ranks in the 10th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (10.9% rate this year).

Checking in at the 20th percentile, Chris Taylor has put up a .240 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.351) may lead us to conclude that Rafael Devers has had positive variance on his side this year with his .401 actual wOBA.

David Hamilton’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, going from 15.9% on the season to 4.8% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Miguel Rojas’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.3-mph average last season has lowered to 84.8-mph.