Pros

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

The #5 field in the league for boosting home runs to left-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

The weather forecast calls for the 5th-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

Yordan Alvarez will have the handedness advantage against Nick Pivetta in today’s matchup.

Ronel Blanco has averaged 94.6 adjusted pitches per start this year, ranking in the 88th percentile.

The Boston Red Sox have been the luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future, Ronel Blanco will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats in all categories.

Ronel Blanco performed well in his previous outing and conceded 0 ER.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 5th-best venue in MLB for right-handed home runs.

Chas McCormick will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Despite posting a .249 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Chas McCormick has experienced some negative variance given the .061 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .310.

Connor Wong’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 13.2% to 16.9%.

By putting up a .336 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Connor Wong is ranked in the 77th percentile.

When it comes to his BABIP ability, Jarren Duran is projected as the 14th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Jarren Duran will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ronel Blanco today.

With a .353 BABIP this year, Connor Wong grades out in the 96th percentile.

Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

There has been a significant improvement in Danny Jansen’s launch angle from last year’s 19.5° to 23.1° this season.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (23.7) implies that Danny Jansen has been unlucky this year with his 18.2 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Ronel Blanco in the 76th percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.

Minute Maid Park profiles as the #10 field in baseball for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

As it relates to his home run ability, Triston Casas ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Triston Casas is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Triston Casas will have the handedness advantage against Ronel Blanco in today’s game.

Ceddanne Rafaela has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph to 92-mph over the past week.

Ceddanne Rafaela and his 17.1° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 87th percentile, among the highest in Major League Baseball this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Jeremy Pena is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Yainer Diaz ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Yainer Diaz is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.

Extreme groundball batters like Yainer Diaz usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Trey Cabbage will have the handedness advantage over Nick Pivetta today.

The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Trey Cabbage can likely count on holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

Among every team in action today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.

Trey Cabbage will possess the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Masataka Yoshida ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Minute Maid Park has the least fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally good for home runs.

Masataka Yoshida will hold the platoon advantage over Ronel Blanco in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

Tyler O’Neill projects as the 13th-best home run batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Tyler O’Neill is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Tyler O’Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Jon Singleton is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Jon Singleton will have an advantage today.

Jon Singleton is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Boston Red Sox only has 1 same-handed RP.

Among every team in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz as the 17th-best batter in Major League Baseball when assessing his batting average ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 89th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Shay Whitcomb will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Jake Meyers will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Meyers has had some very poor luck this year. His .296 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .337.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 93rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Hitting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, David Hamilton will have an edge today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 77th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Tyler O’Neill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Tyler O’Neill has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98-mph average to last season’s 92.8-mph EV.

David Hamilton has recorded a .323 BABIP this year, placing in the 80th percentile.

Extreme flyball batters like Jeremy Pena are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Posting a 1.59 K/BB rate this year, Danny Jansen has displayed impressive plate discipline, placing in the 91st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chas McCormick in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Mauricio Dubon will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Mauricio Dubon has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 92.5-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 86.6-mph EV.

Chas McCormick has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average this year; his .197 rate is quite a bit lower than his .219 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Masataka Yoshida has made substantial gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 6.6% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week’s worth of games.

Sporting a .360 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Triston Casas has performed in the 93rd percentile.

Triston Casas has shown favorable plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 82nd percentile with a 1.93 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Over the past week, Wilyer Abreu’s 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.8%.

Rafael Devers has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Over the last week, Shay Whitcomb has displayed impressive power, recording a a 25% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power).

Nick Pivetta has utilized his slider 12.4% more often this year (29.8%) than he did last season (17.4%).

Considering the 0.26 deviation between Nick Pivetta’s 4.49 ERA and his 4.23 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year and figures to perform better going forward.

Ranking in the 90th percentile, Nick Pivetta has put up a 4.91 K/BB rate this year.

Nick Pivetta’s 83rd percentile Walk% (5.7% this year) displays his strong control skills.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Ceddanne Rafaela’s 57.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.4%.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Trey Cabbage has been unlucky this year. His .261 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .292.

The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Yordan Alvarez has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

When assessing his strikeout ability, Nick Pivetta projects as the 20th-best starter in the majors right now, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Houston Astros have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Chas McCormick, Shay Whitcomb, Jon Singleton).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Danny Jansen in the 85th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Mauricio Dubon’s launch angle this season (14.2°) is quite a bit higher than his 9.7° angle last year.

Cons

In MLB, the 3rd-highest average fence height are at Minute Maid Park.

Minute Maid Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all stadiums, which generally leads to less offense.

Yordan Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-deepest CF fences today.

Typically, bats like Yordan Alvarez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Nick Pivetta.

Yordan Alvarez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 14.1% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past 7 days.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Yainer Diaz (the Astros’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as a weak pitch framer.

Minute Maid Park projects as the #9 field in the majors for walks, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums are found in Minute Maid Park.

Ronel Blanco’s 92.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.1-mph drop off from last season’s 93.8-mph figure.

Chas McCormick is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Chas McCormick has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 14% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Chas McCormick meets a tough challenge today.

Connor Wong has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.

Batting from the same side that Ronel Blanco throws from, Connor Wong will be at a disadvantage today.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Connor Wong today.

Connor Wong’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 89.1-mph figure last season has fallen off to 86.4-mph.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jarren Duran today.

Over the last 14 days, Jarren Duran’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 93.9 mph to 90.6 mph.

Jarren Duran’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off of late, going from 47.2% on the season to 29.4% in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Danny Jansen in the 2nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Danny Jansen has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Ronel Blanco throws from, Danny Jansen will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Triston Casas hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 77th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 8th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Triston Casas will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Triston Casas has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 9.7% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past 7 days.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.

Batting from the same side that Ronel Blanco throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela encounters a tough challenge today.

Ceddanne Rafaela will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s launch angle lately (10.4° over the last 14 days) is quite a bit lower than his 13.8° seasonal angle.

Nick Pivetta will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jeremy Pena today.

Jeremy Pena has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph dropping to 84.4-mph over the past 14 days.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 7.7°, Jeremy Pena has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.1°) in the last two weeks.

By putting up a 4.12 K/BB rate this year, Jeremy Pena has displayed bad plate discipline, checking in at the 17th percentile.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Yainer Diaz will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

Yainer Diaz has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Yainer Diaz’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 21.6% to 11.4%.

Trey Cabbage’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Trey Cabbage is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

31% of the time that Trey Cabbage has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 9th-worst stadium in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.

Masataka Yoshida is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Masataka Yoshida today.

Masataka Yoshida has been lucky this year, putting up a .365 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .334 — a .031 difference.

Nick Pivetta will hold the platoon advantage over Jose Altuve in today’s matchup.

Jose Altuve’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 92.9-mph average last season has decreased to 90.5-mph.

Over the past week, Jose Altuve’s 5.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.9%.

Batting from the same side that Ronel Blanco throws from, Tyler O’Neill will have a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Tyler O’Neill today.

When it comes to his batting average, Tyler O’Neill has been lucky this year. His .265 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .218.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jon Singleton in the 3rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

This year, Jon Singleton has been pinch hit for in 18% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.

The #10 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing BABIP to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

Jon Singleton hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Wilyer Abreu has been pulled from the game early 30% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

In today’s game, Wilyer Abreu is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.6% rate (87th percentile).

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Wilyer Abreu in today’s matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Shay Whitcomb ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Shay Whitcomb is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Shay Whitcomb encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Jake Meyers is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.

Nick Pivetta will have the handedness advantage over Jake Meyers in today’s matchup.

Over the past week, Jake Meyers’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 0%.

Jake Meyers’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 92-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 89.7-mph over the last 14 days.

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ronel Blanco must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 62.5% of the time, checking in at the 88th percentile.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Rafael Devers today.

Rafael Devers’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 95.7-mph seasonal average has dropped to 89.9-mph in the last two weeks.

Rafael Devers has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .396 mark is a good deal higher than his .351 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 10th-worst venue in baseball for right-handed base hits.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, David Hamilton ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

David Hamilton is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

This year, David Hamilton has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 22% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

David Hamilton will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Jake Meyers’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (1.9° in the past 14 days) is significantly worse than his 12.3° seasonal mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 20th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

With a .292 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Ceddanne Rafaela has performed in the 25th percentile for offensive skills.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 15th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Mauricio Dubon is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Nick Pivetta will have the handedness advantage against Mauricio Dubon today.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Jarren Duran’s 10.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 19th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #10 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.

Given that groundball batters have a substantial edge over flyball pitchers, Nick Pivetta and his 38.5% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position in today’s game squaring off against 1 opposing GB hitters.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (14.9) may lead us to conclude that Jon Singleton has experienced some positive variance this year with his 18.2 actual HR/600.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Trey Cabbage ranks in the 15th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Nick Pivetta will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Over his last 3 starts, Nick Pivetta has experienced a sizeable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2332 rpm over the whole season to 2265 rpm of late.

Considering the 0.74 gap between Nick Pivetta’s 11.03 K/9 and his 10.29 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year when it comes to strikeouts and should perform worse in future games.

Today, Trey Cabbage is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39% rate (92nd percentile).

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.326) may lead us to conclude that Tyler O’Neill has been very fortunate this year with his .371 actual wOBA.

Mauricio Dubon has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will be challenged by the game’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Danny Jansen will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.