Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Boston at Houston Matchup Today

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jarren Duran ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 5th-best field in the majors for left-handed home runs.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast calls for for the 5th-most suitable hitting conditions of all games today.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Minute Maid Park as the 5th-best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.

The shallowest LF dimensions in the majors are found in Minute Maid Park.

Jeremy Pena will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Jose Altuve is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.

Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

The Boston Red Sox infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in action today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 98th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Yainer Diaz will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Jarren Duran is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jarren Duran has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 94-mph average to last year’s 90.3-mph mark.

Danny Jansen is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

Danny Jansen will have the handedness advantage against Yusei Kikuchi today.

Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Ceddanne Rafaela will have the handedness advantage over Yusei Kikuchi today.

Shay Whitcomb will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Tyler O’Neill projects as the 12th-best home run hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Tyler O’Neill is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Tyler O’Neill will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Tyler O’Neill ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Tyler O’Neill pulls many of his flyballs (34.7% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Jeremy Pena’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When estimating his home run ability, Triston Casas ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Using Statcast metrics, Triston Casas is in the 88th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 29.300.

Triston Casas’s 95.3-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to measure power) is in the 92nd percentile since the start of last season.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s assessment, Tanner Houck’s overall pitching ability is in the 88th percentile out of all SPs in the game currently.

Tallying 96.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Tanner Houck ranks in the 93rd percentile.

Tanner Houck will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing bats in this matchup.

Because groundball pitchers have a substantial edge over groundball bats, Tanner Houck and his 51% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good spot in today’s game being matched up with 3 opposing GB bats.

The Boston Red Sox projected lineup grades out as the 4th-best of the day in terms of overall hitting skill.

Projected catcher Yainer Diaz grades out as a weak pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best hitter in the majors.

Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Tanner Houck throws from, Yordan Alvarez will have an edge in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Yusei Kikuchi in the 93rd percentile among all starting pitchers in MLB.

Yusei Kikuchi has averaged 92.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 79th percentile.

The Boston Red Sox have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Romy Gonzalez, Tyler O’Neill, Triston Casas, Connor Wong).

Minute Maid Park projects as the #10 ballpark in MLB for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Jon Singleton is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.

Jon Singleton will have the handedness advantage over Tanner Houck in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Jon Singleton will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Hitters such as Yordan Alvarez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tanner Houck who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Jake Meyers will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Jake Meyers has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .296 figure is considerably lower than his .338 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 76th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

When estimating his home run ability, Danny Jansen ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Triston Casas ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Posting a .362 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Triston Casas grades out in the 93rd percentile.

With a 1.9 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Triston Casas has displayed favorable plate discipline, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

Over the last week, Danny Jansen’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.9-mph over the course of the season to 103.1-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.

Batting from the opposite that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Rob Refsnyder will have an advantage in today’s game.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Rafael Devers is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Rafael Devers has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

In notching a .394 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Rafael Devers grades out in the 96th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jose Altuve ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Triston Casas’s 12.9% Barrel% (a reliable standard to measure power) ranks in the 88th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rob Refsnyder in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Monday player match stat slumps with Red Sox vs Astros Matchup

In MLB, the 3rd-highest average fence height are at Minute Maid Park.

Minute Maid Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to worse offense.

Hitting from the same side that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Jarren Duran faces a tough challenge today.

Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Jarren Duran has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 9.7% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 21st percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Hitting from the same side that Tanner Houck throws from, Jeremy Pena has a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Typically, batters like Jeremy Pena who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tanner Houck.

Jeremy Pena’s average exit velocity has declined of late; his 87.9-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 85.3-mph in the last 14 days.

Minute Maid Park ranks as the #21 field in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Tanner Houck will have the handedness advantage over Jose Altuve in today’s game.

Jose Altuve has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 6.6% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last week.

Jose Altuve has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 83-mph over the last two weeks.

Tanner Houck will have the handedness advantage against Yainer Diaz in today’s game.

Yainer Diaz has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-deepest RF fences today.

Typically, batters like Yainer Diaz who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Tanner Houck.

The #10 park in MLB for suppressing BABIP to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

Danny Jansen’s BABIP talent is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Danny Jansen in today’s game.

With a .218 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Danny Jansen has performed in the 10th percentile.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today.

Ceddanne Rafaela has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 9th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Shay Whitcomb ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Shay Whitcomb is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

Batting from the same side that Tanner Houck throws from, Shay Whitcomb will have a tough challenge today.

Tyler O’Neill will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Tyler O’Neill has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .377 rate is a fair amount higher than his .328 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jeremy Pena’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased of late, going from 43.2% on the season to 25% in the past two weeks.

Triston Casas has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.

Hitting from the same side that Yusei Kikuchi throws from, Triston Casas has a tough challenge in today’s game.

Triston Casas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 77th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The #9 field in MLB for boosting walks, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.

Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Tanner Houck in today’s game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s evaluation, Yusei Kikuchi’s overall pitching ability is in the 78th percentile out of all starting pitchers in MLB right now.

It may be wise to expect negative regression for the Boston Red Sox offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the luckiest offense in the game this year.

Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics across the board, and Yusei Kikuchi will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Yusei Kikuchi performed well in his previous start and gave up 1 ER.

Yordan Alvarez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Yordan Alvarez has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .304 figure is quite a bit higher than his .285 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

With 6 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Yusei Kikuchi has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

Yusei Kikuchi’s slider percentage has fallen by 7.3% from last season to this one (26% to 18.7%) .

Yusei Kikuchi has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 10.47 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.23 — a 0.24 K/9 deviation.

Jon Singleton’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jon Singleton hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-deepest CF fences today.

Jon Singleton has been lucky this year, notching a .305 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .285 — a .020 discrepancy.

Jon Singleton has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 18.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly inflated relative to his 14.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jake Meyers is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.

Tanner Houck will have the handedness advantage over Jake Meyers today.

In the last week’s worth of games, Jake Meyers’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.6% down to 0%.

Jake Meyers’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 91.8-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 88.5-mph over the last 14 days.

Over the last two weeks, Jake Meyers’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (0.4°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 12.4°.

Rob Refsnyder will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

In the last week’s worth of games, Rob Refsnyder’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.3% down to 0%.

Despite posting a .370 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Rob Refsnyder has had some very good luck given the .038 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.

Yusei Kikuchi will hold the platoon advantage against Rafael Devers today.

Rafael Devers will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Rafael Devers has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 14.3% seasonal rate has dropped off to 6.5% over the last 14 days.

In his last GS, Tanner Houck turned in a great performance and gave up 2 ER.

The Houston Astros (21.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of all teams on the slate today.

By putting up a .292 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Jon Singleton finds himself in the 25th percentile for offensive skills.

Rob Refsnyder’s launch angle in recent games (5.3° in the past week’s worth of games) is significantly lower than his 9.5° seasonal mark.