Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Texas at Boston Matchup Today

The #6 field in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

Dominic Smith will have the handedness advantage against Tyler Mahle in today’s game.

Dominic Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Dominic Smith will hold that advantage today.

Over the last 7 days, Dominic Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.1% up to 20%.

The #4 park in the majors for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

Among all parks, Fenway Park’s RF fences are the 2nd-shallowest.

Batting from the opposite that Tyler Mahle throws from, David Hamilton will have an advantage today.

David Hamilton will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

David Hamilton has made significant improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 5.3% seasonal rate to 11.1% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wyatt Langford in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Wyatt Langford is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Fenway Park has the shallowest left field fences in MLB.

In the last 14 days, Wyatt Langford’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91-mph over the course of the season to 94.4-mph of late.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.4) provides evidence that Wyatt Langford has suffered from bad luck this year with his 9.8 actual HR/600.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Rafael Devers is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.

Rafael Devers will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Mahle today.

Rafael Devers has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Leody Taveras in the 76th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Leody Taveras has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s shallowest LF fences today.

Leody Taveras’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (26.4° in the past two weeks) is significantly higher than his 9.4° seasonal angle.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.266) may lead us to conclude that Leody Taveras has had some very poor luck this year with his .226 actual batting average.

Jonah Heim pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Rafael Devers will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Brayan Bello in the 80th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent level.

Brayan Bello will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his metrics in all categories.

Brayan Bello’s four-seamer usage has dropped by 18% from last year to this one (20.7% to 2.7%) .

Brayan Bello’s 95.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 86th percentile among all starters.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Nathaniel Lowe ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Because of Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Nathaniel Lowe will have a tremendous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.9%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Nathaniel Lowe has exhibited impressive plate discipline this year, placing in the 87th percentile with a 1.71 K/BB rate.

Josh Smith is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.

Josh Smith will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today… and even better, Bello has a large platoon split.

Josh Smith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Posting a .347 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Josh Smith is ranked in the 83rd percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 8th-best batter in the majors.

Corey Seager is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

Because of Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Corey Seager will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today’s game.

Corey Seager hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38% — 75th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 9th-best hitter in the game when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Tyler Mahle throws from, Jarren Duran will have an edge today.

Jarren Duran has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Ceddanne Rafaela has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Ceddanne Rafaela will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, Josh Jung is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Josh Jung is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Josh Jung hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Using Statcast data, Josh Jung grades out in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .263.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Projected catcher Jonah Heim grades out as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Tyler Mahle’s 2350.7-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 75th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

Connor Wong is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 6th-best park in baseball for RHB base hits.

Connor Wong will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Connor Wong has put up a .357 BABIP this year, grading out in the 97th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Jarren Duran will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Wilyer Abreu will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Mahle in today’s game.

Wilyer Abreu hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Nick Sogard pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Nick Sogard will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Over the past two weeks, Nick Sogard has been successful in optimizing the launch angle of his hardest hit balls to hit for power, putting up a 20.6° angle.

Connor Wong has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 98.5-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal average of 91.5-mph.

Connor Wong has put up a .341 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 80th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Masataka Yoshida has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.

Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage over Tyler Mahle in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Marcus Semien ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Marcus Semien is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Marcus Semien pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences today.

Bats such as Marcus Semien with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brayan Bello who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Wilyer Abreu will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Adolis Garcia’s true offensive talent to be a .322, implying that he has been unlucky this year given the .040 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .282 wOBA.

In notching a 24.800 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Adolis Garcia has performed in the 80th percentile for power.

Over the last week, Marcus Semien’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.1-mph over the course of the season to 99.1-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

David Hamilton has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph to 91.4-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

Tyler Mahle has been lucky since the start of last season, compiling a 2.94 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.18 — a 1.24 gap.

Nick Sogard has been zeroed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits of late, striking balls between -4° and 26° 64.3% of the time in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.319) implies that Leody Taveras has experienced some negative variance this year with his .282 actual wOBA.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Josh Jung ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Since the start of last season, Josh Jung’s 11.7% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 82nd percentile among his peers.

When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs), Josh Jung and his 20.2% rank in the 96th percentile since the start of last season.

Dominic Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 16.9% to 20.5%.

Corey Seager has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 16.4% seasonal rate to 33.3% over the past week.

Adolis Garcia has averaged 23.5 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 76th percentile for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Masataka Yoshida will hold that advantage today.

In the past two weeks, Josh Smith’s 22.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.5%.

Monday player match stat slumps with Rangers vs Red Sox Matchup

Dominic Smith is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Dominic Smith has been pinch hit for 19% of the time.

Fenway Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to lower offensive output.

The Texas Rangers infield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams today.

Dominic Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, falling from 20.5% on the season to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, David Hamilton ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

David Hamilton is penciled in 9th in the batting order today.

This year, David Hamilton has been pinch hit for in 19% of his appearances when starting against righty on the mound.

Among all major league stadiums, the 2nd-tallest average fence height are at Fenway Park.

Brayan Bello will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Wyatt Langford today… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Bello’s large platoon split.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Wyatt Langford in today’s game.

Wyatt Langford has hit 8.8 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 13th percentile for power.

Rafael Devers has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 14.3% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last week.

Rafael Devers’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 96.3-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 89.5-mph over the past week.

Leody Taveras is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

Leody Taveras will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Leody Taveras’s quickness has decreased this season. His 29.17 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.67 ft/sec now.

Leody Taveras’s 89.8-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to measure power) ranks in the 20th percentile this year.

Jonah Heim is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this matchup.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the plate, Jonah Heim will have a tough time against Brayan Bello and his large platoon split in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jonah Heim today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonah Heim in the 4th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 12.8°, Rafael Devers has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-0.6°) in the past two weeks.

The Texas Rangers projected batting order grades out as the 4th-best of the day in terms of overall batting ability.

The Texas Rangers have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future, According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Connor Wong (the Red Sox’s expected catcher today) profiles as a weak pitch framer.

The #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.

Nathaniel Lowe is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

Extreme flyball batters like Nathaniel Lowe generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Nathaniel Lowe in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Josh Smith today.

Josh Smith has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 10.7% rate last year has lowered to 3.6% this year.

Josh Smith’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 93.8-mph EV last season has lowered to 89.5-mph.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Corey Seager in today’s game.

Jarren Duran’s launch angle of late (-0.5° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is considerably worse than his 8.5° seasonal angle.

Jarren Duran has been lucky this year, notching a .365 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .335 — a .030 gap.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today.

Batting from the same side that Tyler Mahle throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.

Ceddanne Rafaela has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 6.8% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

Brayan Bello will have the handedness advantage over Josh Jung in today’s game… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Bello’s large platoon split.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Josh Jung in today’s game.

Josh Jung’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 91.7-mph figure last season has dropped off to 88.8-mph.

Tyler Mahle has averaged 72.5 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 5th percentile.

The Boston Red Sox have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Mahle in this game.

Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Tyler Mahle in today’s game.

In his last GS, Tyler Mahle struggled when it came to striking batters out and only managed to tally 2 Ks.

Given the 0.65 discrepancy between Tyler Mahle’s 8.81 K/9 and his 8.16 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game since the start of last season as it relates to strikeouts and should see worse results in future games.

Tyler Mahle will hold the platoon advantage against Connor Wong today.

Connor Wong’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 89.1-mph mark last season has fallen off to 86.6-mph.

Connor Wong’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, decreasing from 16.8% on the season to 0% over the past 7 days.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Wilyer Abreu has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 27% of the time.

Wilyer Abreu has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .269 mark is considerably higher than his .231 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When estimating his home run skill, Nick Sogard ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nick Sogard is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game.

The switch-hitting Nick Sogard will bat from his weak side (0) today against Tyler Mahle, Connor Wong has been lucky this year, notching a .341 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .297 — a .044 discrepancy.

This year, Masataka Yoshida has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 13% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.

Texas’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Masataka Yoshida, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

Considering Brayan Bello’s large platoon split, Marcus Semien will be at a big disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish today.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Marcus Semien today.

Marcus Semien’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, decreasing from 21.1% to 15.9%.

Marcus Semien has notched a .261 BABIP this year, grading out in the 18th percentile.

Wyatt Langford’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off of late, falling from 38.2% on the season to 32% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Wyatt Langford grades out in the 10th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (38.2% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Wilyer Abreu’s true offensive talent to be a .323, providing some evidence that he has had some very good luck this year given the .035 gap between that mark and his actual .358 wOBA.

Adolis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (95% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Brayan Bello will hold the platoon advantage over Adolis Garcia in today’s matchup… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Bello’s large platoon split.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Adolis Garcia today.

Adolis Garcia’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 91.4-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 83.7-mph in the last 7 days.

David Hamilton has been lucky this year, putting up a .308 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .282 — a .026 gap.

Nathaniel Lowe has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph dropping to 86.2-mph over the past two weeks.

The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected offense today (.314 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .331 wOBA this year.

The Boston Red Sox have been the luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward, As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Nick Sogard ranks in the 19th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

With a .282 wOBA in the last 14 days, Leody Taveras has been struggling at the plate.

Josh Jung has had some very good luck with with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .338 rate is inflated compared to his .327 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Josh Smith’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off of late, decreasing from 43.3% on the season to 25.7% in the past two weeks.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Texas Rangers with a 21.8% underlying K%.

Out of all starting pitchers, Brayan Bello’s fastball spin rate of 2086 rpm ranks in the 16th percentile since the start of last season.

Given the 0.15 gap between Brayan Bello’s 8.79 K/9 and his 8.63 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to see worse results going forward.