Todays Game 3 Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for San Diego at Colorado Game 3 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Rodgers in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Brendan Rodgers is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

The #1 venue in MLB for boosting offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.

Coors Field sits at the highest altitude among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the hottest temperature of all games on the slate at 92°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Ha-seong Kim has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph to 92.1-mph in the last week.

Over the past week, Ha-seong Kim’s 70% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.8%.

Brenton Doyle’s BABIP skill is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brenton Doyle is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Coors Field grades out as the #1 park in the majors for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Brendan Rodgers will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

Coors Field profiles as the #1 stadium in the league for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Xander Bogaerts’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.

Coors Field projects as the #1 venue in the majors for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Jake Cave’s BABIP skill is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jake Cave will hold the platoon advantage over Joe Musgrove in today’s matchup.

Ezequiel Tovar’s BABIP skill is projected in the 83rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ezequiel Tovar is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

As it relates to his batting average talent, Luis Arraez is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Luis Arraez is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Jake Cave will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Bradley Blalock will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats in all categories.

Coors Field profiles as the #1 venue in baseball for LHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.321) implies that Ha-seong Kim has experienced some negative variance this year with his .305 actual wOBA.

Batting from the opposite that Bradley Blalock throws from, David Peralta will have an advantage in today’s game.

The Colorado Rockies don’t have any same-handed relief pitchers in their bullpen, so David Peralta is certain to hold the advantage against every reliever all game.

Charlie Blackmon is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Joe Musgrove throws from, Charlie Blackmon will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Michael Toglia will hold that advantage today.

Michael Toglia has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.5-mph average to last season’s 91-mph figure.

Kyle Higashioka has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.4-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 88.6-mph mark.

Kyle Higashioka’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 17.5% to 25.6%.

David Peralta’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Hitting from the opposite that Bradley Blalock throws from, Jackson Merrill will have an edge in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Jurickson Profar is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

As it relates to his home run skill, Michael Toglia ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Manny Machado is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

When estimating his home run skill, Kyle Higashioka ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kyle Higashioka has a ton of pop (90th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (27.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bradley Blalock struggles to strike batters out (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Higashioka.

When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Joe Musgrove in the 76th percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.

The Colorado Rockies have 6 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Beck, Jake Cave, Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle, Ryan McMahon, Michael Toglia).

Kyle Higashioka, the Padres’s expected catcher today, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Over his previous 3 starts, Joe Musgrove has experienced a substantial rise in his fastball spin rate: from 2628 rpm over the entire season to 2700 rpm of late.

Joe Musgrove’s slider usage has risen by 7.9% from last year to this one (14.5% to 22.4%) .

Ezequiel Tovar will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Hitting from the opposite that Bradley Blalock throws from, Luis Arraez will have an edge in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s appraisal, Bradley Blalock’s overall pitching ability is in the 22nd percentile out of all SPs in Major League Baseball right now.

The #1 stadium in the majors for boosting batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.

Ranking highest in the game this year, San Diego Padres hitters as a unit have put up a 16.1° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (an advanced standard to evaluate power skills).

When assessing his home run skill, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 79th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jackson Merrill ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Sunday Game 3 player match stat slumps with Padres vs Rockies Matchup

Joe Musgrove will hold the platoon advantage against Brendan Rodgers in today’s game.

Brendan Rodgers has struggled with his Barrel%; his 11% rate last year has fallen to 4.8% this year.

Brendan Rodgers’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 89.3-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 85-mph over the last 7 days.

Brendan Rodgers’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, falling from 19.7% to 10.2%.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Brendan Rodgers has had some very good luck this year. His .323 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .298.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Ryan McMahon’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.9% down to 0%.

Ryan McMahon’s launch angle of late (3.8° in the last two weeks’ worth of games) is quite a bit lower than his 9° seasonal figure.

Ryan McMahon has been lucky this year, notching a .328 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .016 disparity.

Ha-seong Kim is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Bradley Blalock throws from, Ha-seong Kim will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies.

Ha-seong Kim will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Ha-seong Kim’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (8°) is quite a bit worse than his 11.9° mark last season.

Batting from the same side that Joe Musgrove throws from, Brenton Doyle will have a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

In the past week, Brenton Doyle’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.6% down to 0%.

Over the last 7 days, Brenton Doyle’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal mark of 93.8 mph to 83 mph.

Despite posting a .335 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brenton Doyle has been very fortunate given the .039 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .296.

Brenton Doyle has exhibited weak plate discipline this year, grading out in the 20th percentile with a 3.87 K/BB rate.

Jake Cronenworth will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Jake Cronenworth’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (11°) is significantly worse than his 14.6° mark last season.

Jake Cronenworth’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, falling from 16.4% on the season to 7.1% over the last 7 days.

Hitting from the same side that Bradley Blalock throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

Xander Bogaerts will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

In the past 14 days, Xander Bogaerts’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.1% down to 0%.

Xander Bogaerts’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 89.5-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 85.3-mph over the last 14 days.

Jake Cave is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

12% of the time that Jake Cave has started against a northpaw this year, he has been pinch hit for.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (7.9) may lead us to conclude that Jake Cave has been lucky this year with his 13.6 actual HR/600.

Jake Cave has compiled a .275 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 14th percentile.

By putting up a 4.69 K/BB rate this year, Jake Cave has displayed poor plate discipline, placing in the 10th percentile.

Joe Musgrove will have the handedness advantage over Ezequiel Tovar in today’s game.

In the past week, Ezequiel Tovar’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 0%.

Ezequiel Tovar’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off lately, decreasing from 16.5% on the season to 0% in the last week.

Ezequiel Tovar has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .320 mark is considerably higher than his .277 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

With a 10.12 K/BB rate this year, Ezequiel Tovar has displayed weak plate discipline, placing in the 0th percentile.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Luis Arraez in today’s game.

From last season to this one, Luis Arraez’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 89.6 mph to 87.6 mph.

Utilizing Statcast data, Luis Arraez ranks in the 1st percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 1.500.

Luis Arraez has averaged 2.8 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 3rd percentile for power.

Jake Cave’s launch angle this year (6.4°) is considerably worse than his 15.1° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Bradley Blalock in the 17th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Bradley Blalock is projected to throw 74 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least on the slate.

The San Diego Padres (18.1 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy group of hitters on the slate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Coors Field as the worst ballpark in the league for strikeouts.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Cave has been lucky this year. His .296 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .273.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 15.3°, Ha-seong Kim has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-5.7°) in the last two weeks.

David Peralta is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

David Peralta will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Despite posting a .340 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes David Peralta has had positive variance on his side given the .031 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .309.

Charlie Blackmon’s BABIP talent is projected in the 19th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Charlie Blackmon has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 5.3% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last two weeks.

Charlie Blackmon’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.4-mph figure last season has dropped off to 84-mph.

Charlie Blackmon’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 84-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 79.3-mph over the last 14 days.

Charlie Blackmon has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .256 figure is quite a bit higher than his .215 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 11th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Michael Toglia is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Toglia’s true offensive ability to be a .297, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .033 disparity between that mark and his actual .330 wOBA.

By putting up a .201 batting average this year, Michael Toglia grades out in the 6th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Higashioka in the 7th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Kyle Higashioka is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the same side that Bradley Blalock throws from, Kyle Higashioka will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Kyle Higashioka in today’s game.

Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Jackson Merrill’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, decreasing from 46.4% on the season to 20% in the past week.

Despite posting a .342 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jackson Merrill has experienced some positive variance given the .018 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.

The switch-hitting Jurickson Profar will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side (0) today against Bradley Blalock, Jurickson Profar will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

In the last week’s worth of games, Jurickson Profar’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.3% down to 0%.

In the past week’s worth of games, Jurickson Profar’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.7%.

Despite posting a .377 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jurickson Profar has experienced some positive variance given the .054 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .323.

Hitting from the same side that Bradley Blalock throws from, Manny Machado will have a tough matchup today.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Manny Machado in today’s matchup.

In the past week’s worth of games, Manny Machado’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 92.4 mph to 86.9 mph.

Manny Machado’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, going from 17.7% to 12.1%.

In the last 7 days, Kyle Higashioka’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.8% down to 0%.

Kyle Higashioka has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 45.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly inflated relative to his 31.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Joe Musgrove to be on a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.

Joe Musgrove will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

When assessing his home run ability, Luis Arraez ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Manny Machado’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, going from 12.1% on the season to 8.3% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

In the last 7 days, Ryan McMahon’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal mark of 96.3 mph to 82.7 mph.

Xander Bogaerts’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (7.9° in the past two weeks) is significantly lower than his 12.3° seasonal figure.

It may be wise to expect negative regression for the San Diego Padres offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 8th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.

San Diego’s 91.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #27 offense in the majors this year by this standard.

Charlie Blackmon has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .318 figure is significantly inflated relative to his .282 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

By putting up a 3.93 K/BB rate this year, Jackson Merrill has demonstrated bad plate discipline, checking in at the 20th percentile.