Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for San Diego at Baltimore Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Xander Bogaerts’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.8-mph over the course of the season to 98.3-mph in recent games.

Xander Bogaerts has been unlucky this year, notching a .279 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .329 — a .050 disparity.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Manny Machado is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #8 stadium in the league for right-handed base hits, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Ha-seong Kim ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

In terms of his batting average, Ha-seong Kim has had some very poor luck this year. His .223 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .255.

Ha-seong Kim has exhibited impressive plate discipline this year, checking in at the 98th percentile with a 1.25 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects David Peralta in the 76th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

David Peralta will have the handedness advantage over Grayson Rodriguez today.

David Peralta hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

David Peralta has made substantial strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 3.9% seasonal rate to 14.3% in the past week.

Hitting from the opposite that Grayson Rodriguez throws from, Jackson Merrill will have an advantage today.

Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

Jackson Merrill’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, rising from 17.7% on the season to 26.7% in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Grayson Rodriguez throws from, Jake Cronenworth will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Jake Cronenworth’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 40% to 47.7%.

When estimating his batting average talent, Luis Arraez is projected as the best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Luis Arraez is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

Luis Arraez will have the handedness advantage over Grayson Rodriguez today.

Luis Arraez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, increasing from 17.3% on the season to 41.2% in the last week.

Over the last 7 days, Kyle Higashioka’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.9-mph over the course of the season to 100.7-mph lately.

Kyle Higashioka’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 17.5% to 24.7%.

In the last 7 days, Kyle Higashioka’s 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 40.4%.

Kyle Higashioka has notched a .427 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year, checking in at the 96th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Ryan O’Hearn is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Among all major league stadiums, Oriole Park at Camden Yards’s RF dimensions are the shallowest.

Ryan O’Hearn will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Adam Mazur in today’s game.

Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.

Jurickson Profar pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

In comparison to his 86.5-mph average last year, Jurickson Profar’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 90.9 mph.

Compared to last season, Jurickson Profar has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 42% to 47.4% this season.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.328) suggests that Ha-seong Kim has had bad variance on his side this year with his .302 actual wOBA.

David Peralta’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 12.8% to 19.5%.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.

Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Anthony Santander will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Anthony Santander has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the last 14 days.

When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Grayson Rodriguez in the 92nd percentile among all SPs in MLB.

Grayson Rodriguez has averaged 95 adjusted pitches per outing this year, placing in the 89th percentile.

Projected catcher Adley Rutschman profiles as a good pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Grayson Rodriguez will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats in all categories.

In his previous outing, Grayson Rodriguez was firing on all cylinders and posted 8 strikeouts.

As a team, San Diego Padres hitters have performed well in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking best in Major League Baseball.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best park in baseball for LHB BABIP.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 16th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.

Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

Gunnar Henderson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Adam Mazur in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Gunnar Henderson will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O’Hearn in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Jake Cronenworth has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 89.5-mph average to last season’s 87.3-mph average.

The 2nd-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Baltimore Orioles.

Adam Mazur will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Adam Mazur conceded a monstrous 5 earned runs in his last outing.

Out of all starting pitchers, Adam Mazur’s fastball spin rate of 2116 rpm ranks in the 17th percentile this year.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Jordan Westburg ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jordan Westburg has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (51% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.

Jordan Westburg will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Jordan Westburg has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.5% rate last season to 11.6% this season.

Over the last 7 days, Manny Machado’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8.6% up to 18.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Higashioka in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Adley Rutschman will hold that advantage today.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, Colton Cowser is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Adam Mazur throws from, Colton Cowser will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Colton Cowser has big-time power (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (29.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Adam Mazur is a pitch-to-contact type (12th percentile K%) — great news for Cowser.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Colton Cowser will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Adley Rutschman’s launch angle this season (18.1°) is a considerable increase over his 12.5° mark last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 77th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

As it relates to his home run ability, Anthony Santander ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Utilizing Statcast data, Luis Arraez ranks in the 76th percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .334.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Friday player match stat slumps with Padres vs Orioles Matchup

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #28 ballpark in the league for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Among all major league stadiums, Oriole Park at Camden Yards’s left field dimensions are the deepest.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the 9th-tallest fences in the majors.

Grayson Rodriguez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Xander Bogaerts today.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Xander Bogaerts in today’s matchup.

Grayson Rodriguez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Manny Machado in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Manny Machado in today’s game.

Ha-seong Kim is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.

Batting from the same side that Grayson Rodriguez throws from, Ha-seong Kim will have a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Ha-seong Kim pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.1% — 87th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s deepest LF fences in today’s game.

David Peralta is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #28 ballpark in the game for LHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for David Peralta today.

Checking in at the 22nd percentile, David Peralta sports a .289 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jackson Merrill in today’s game.

Jackson Merrill has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 7.9% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last 14 days.

Jake Cronenworth has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s deepest LF fences today.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jake Cronenworth today.

Jake Cronenworth has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph dropping to 84.8-mph over the last two weeks.

In today’s game, Luis Arraez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.6% rate (95th percentile).

Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Arraez today.

From last season to this one, Luis Arraez’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 89.6 mph to 87.4 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Higashioka in the 7th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Kyle Higashioka is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today’s game.

Grayson Rodriguez will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Higashioka today.

Ryan O’Hearn has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 18% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jurickson Profar in the 19th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

The switch-hitting Jurickson Profar will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Grayson Rodriguez, Jurickson Profar will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Santander in the 3rd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

In terms of his home runs, Anthony Santander has had positive variance on his side this year. His 40.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 35.2.

In notching a .235 BABIP this year, Anthony Santander is positioned in the 6th percentile.

The San Diego Padres (18.2 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-prone lineup of all teams today.

Grayson Rodriguez’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.3 mph this year (95.5 mph) below where it was last season (96.8 mph).

With a 0.26 discrepancy between Grayson Rodriguez’s 10.22 K/9 and his 9.96 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the majors this year when it comes to strikeouts and should perform worse the rest of the season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Grayson Rodriguez in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall pitching talent level.

The San Diego Padres have been the 9th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season, The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the worst ballpark in the game for walks.

Today, Gunnar Henderson is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 33.8% rate (76th percentile).

Gunnar Henderson has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 13.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

In the last week, Gunnar Henderson’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal EV of 95.7 mph to 76.4 mph.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 7th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season, Kyle Higashioka, the Padres’s expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

When assessing his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Adam Mazur in the 15th percentile among all starters in the game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adam Mazur to throw 78 pitches today (2nd-least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Adam Mazur will hold the platoon advantage over Jordan Westburg in today’s game.

As it relates to plate discipline, Jordan Westburg’s ability is quite bad, posting a 4.33 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 14th percentile.

Kyle Higashioka pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.2% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s deepest LF fences today.

Adley Rutschman is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Adley Rutschman will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Adam Mazur in today’s matchup.

In the past week, Adley Rutschman’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 90.7 mph to 77.1 mph.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Kyle Higashioka in today’s matchup.

Colton Cowser is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

Colton Cowser has been pulled from the game early 11% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

Colton Cowser has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s deepest LF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jurickson Profar’s true offensive ability to be a .317, implying that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .057 deviation between that mark and his actual .374 wOBA.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Colton Cowser’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.3% down to 6.7%.

Colton Cowser’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 96.4-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 86.3-mph in the past 14 days.

Over the last two weeks, Xander Bogaerts’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

Xander Bogaerts’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, going from 14.5% on the season to 0% in the past week.

Jackson Merrill’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 89.7-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 79.8-mph over the last week.

As it relates to plate discipline, Jackson Merrill’s skill is quite weak, sporting a 4.36 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 13th percentile.

From last season to this one, Manny Machado’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 17.7% to 12.5%.

Despite posting a .396 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Gunnar Henderson has had positive variance on his side given the .034 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .362.

In the past two weeks, Jurickson Profar’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 47.4%.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ha-seong Kim in today’s game.

In the past two weeks, Ha-seong Kim’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.2% down to 0%.

When it comes to his home run talent, Luis Arraez ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).