Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Washington at St. Louis Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the 20th-best batter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his BABIP ability.

James Wood is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.

Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.

The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

James Wood will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today’s matchup.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Nolan Arenado will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Nolan Arenado will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Last season, Nolan Arenado had an average launch angle of 12.2° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 15.9°.

MacKenzie Gore projects as the 19th-best pitcher in Major League Baseball right now when it comes to his strikeout talent, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Compared to average, MacKenzie Gore has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.7 adjusted pitches each game.

MacKenzie Gore has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 6 opposite-handed batters in today’s game.

MacKenzie Gore’s 95.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1.4-mph spike from last season’s 94.4-mph mark.

MacKenzie Gore’s change-up percentage has increased by 6.2% from last season to this one (2.9% to 9.1%) .

As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Dylan Carlson will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side against MacKenzie Gore in this game.

Dylan Carlson will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Dylan Carlson’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (24.9°) is quite a bit higher than his 15° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Luis Garcia will have the upper hand today.

Luis Garcia’s launch angle this year (8.3°) is quite a bit higher than his 4.5° figure last season.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Lane Thomas ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Lane Thomas is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jesse Winker ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jesse Winker is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.

Jesse Winker will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today’s matchup.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Keibert Ruiz will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Sonny Gray today.

Keibert Ruiz’s launch angle this season (19.8°) is a significant increase over his 15.1° angle last season.

In the last week, Keibert Ruiz’s 50% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Brendan Donovan will hold that advantage today.

Brendan Donovan has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.2-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 88.8-mph average.

Juan Yepez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Juan Yepez has made big improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 11.6% seasonal rate to 23.1% in the last week.

Over the last 7 days, Juan Yepez’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 86.1-mph over the course of the season to 88.7-mph of late.

Alec Burleson’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Alec Burleson is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alec Burleson ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Willson Contreras is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Willson Contreras will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 76th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

CJ Abrams is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.

CJ Abrams will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Lars Nootbaar has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.4-mph average to last season’s 89.1-mph average.

Masyn Winn is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

Batting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Masyn Winn will have the upper hand today.

Masyn Winn will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Alec Burleson will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Paul Goldschmidt will have an advantage in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage in today’s game.

CJ Abrams has compiled a .338 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, grading out in the 79th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

James Wood hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Keibert Ruiz’s true offensive ability to be a .294, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .037 deviation between that mark and his actual .257 wOBA.

By putting up a .289 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year , Luis Garcia is ranked in the 94th percentile.

Jacob Young’s BABIP skill is projected in the 89th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When it comes to his batting average, Jacob Young has had some very poor luck this year. His .251 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .269.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.241) implies that Dylan Carlson has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .215 actual batting average.

It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the St. Louis Cardinals offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

St. Louis ranks as the #3 squad in MLB when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle span that tends to optimize base hits (43.9% rate this year).

Willson Contreras, the Cardinals’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Washington Nationals have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Sonny Gray in today’s game.

In his last GS, Sonny Gray conceded a colossal 5 earned runs.

When estimating his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Sonny Gray in the 92nd percentile among all starting pitchers in baseball.

Sonny Gray was firing on all cylinders in his previous outing and notched 10 strikeouts.

Sonny Gray’s 2540-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 96th percentile among all starters.

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Sonny Gray must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 58.7% of the time, ranking in the 75th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Brendan Donovan ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Masyn Winn has compiled a .335 BABIP this year, checking in at the 87th percentile.

Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Keibert Ruiz has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.5-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 85.4-mph EV.

Brendan Donovan’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, increasing from 45% on the season to 51.5% in the last two weeks.

Sporting a .350 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jesse Winker grades out in the 85th percentile.

Generating 17.8 outs per start this year on average, Sonny Gray ranks in the 88th percentile.

Friday player match stat slumps with Nationals vs Cardinals Matchup

The #4 venue in MLB for suppressing offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

James Wood will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Nolan Arenado’s BABIP talent is projected in the 6th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In today’s game, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.1% rate (100th percentile).

Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 88.8-mph EV last season has lowered to 85-mph.

Nolan Arenado’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined in recent games, falling from 43.7% on the season to 18.8% in the past 7 days.

Nolan Arenado has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .266 BA is quite a bit higher than his .243 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.5% underlying K%.

The #8 park in the game for suppressing strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Busch Stadium.

Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for MacKenzie Gore in today’s game.

In his last GS, MacKenzie Gore didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out and only managed to tally 2 Ks.

Dylan Carlson is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.

This year, Dylan Carlson has been pulled from the game early in 10% of his appearances when starting against left-handed pitcher.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest fences in the majors — generally bad for HRs.

There has been a decrease in Dylan Carlson’s average exit velocity this season, from 89.4 mph last year to 85.4 mph now, Luis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Today, Luis Garcia is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.3% rate (94th percentile).

Luis Garcia will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Luis Garcia has displayed bad plate discipline this year, placing in the 23rd percentile with a 3.74 K/BB rate.

Hitting from the same side that Sonny Gray throws from, Lane Thomas will have a disadvantage today.

Lane Thomas pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Lane Thomas in today’s game.

Lane Thomas’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 94.8-mph mark last year has lowered to 89.1-mph.

In today’s matchup, Jesse Winker is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.1% rate (78th percentile).

Jesse Winker will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Jesse Winker has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 9% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 12.5°, Jesse Winker has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (5.9°) in the last 14 days.

From last year to this one, Jesse Winker’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 14.7% to 9.9%.

Keibert Ruiz’s BABIP talent is projected in the 4th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Keibert Ruiz is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.5% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Keibert Ruiz in today’s matchup.

Brendan Donovan has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (70% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the same side that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Brendan Donovan will have a disadvantage today.

Brendan Donovan has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.

Brendan Donovan’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (8.6°) is quite a bit lower than his 12.3° mark last year.

Juan Yepez’s BABIP skill is projected in the 23rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the same side that Sonny Gray throws from, Juan Yepez will be at a disadvantage today.

Juan Yepez pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Juan Yepez in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Alec Burleson meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Alec Burleson has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 29.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 18.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Alec Burleson’s launch angle in recent games (5° over the last week) is considerably lower than his 15.1° seasonal mark.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Willson Contreras’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (0.4°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 10.3°.

Willson Contreras’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 14.7% to 10.7%.

Willson Contreras has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 27.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal higher than his 19.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for CJ Abrams in today’s matchup.

In the past 7 days, CJ Abrams’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.9% down to 0%.

CJ Abrams has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.5-mph dropping to 83.6-mph in the past 14 days.

Lane Thomas’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 89.1-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 82.1-mph in the last two weeks.

Lars Nootbaar has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

MacKenzie Gore will have the handedness advantage against Lars Nootbaar in today’s game.

Lars Nootbaar’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (7.7°) is quite a bit lower than his 11° mark last season.

Lars Nootbaar’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined in recent games, going from 40.8% on the season to 29.6% in the last two weeks.

When it comes to his home run talent, Masyn Winn ranks in the 14th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Masyn Winn has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

Masyn Winn’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 85.6-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 81.8-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.7-mph figure last year has fallen off to 86.4-mph.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 14.6°, Masyn Winn has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (6.8°) in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alec Burleson’s true offensive skill to be a .317, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .026 deviation between that mark and his actual .343 wOBA.

Paul Goldschmidt has posted a .284 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 21st percentile.

Posting a 4.13 K/BB rate this year, Paul Goldschmidt has shown weak plate discipline, placing in the 18th percentile.

Juan Yepez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, falling from 16.3% on the season to 7.7% over the past 7 days.

CJ Abrams’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, going from 14% on the season to 0% in the last week.

Keibert Ruiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.9-mph mark last season has fallen off to 86.7-mph.

Jacob Young is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this game.

Batting from the same side that Sonny Gray throws from, Jacob Young has a tough challenge today.

Today, Jacob Young is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 42.5% rate (99th percentile).

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jacob Young in today’s matchup.

Jacob Young’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 84.7-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 76.2-mph in the past 14 days.

Since the start of last season, Dylan Carlson’s 4.7% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 18th percentile among his peers.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.311) implies that Juan Yepez has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his .341 actual wOBA.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s judgement, MacKenzie Gore’s overall pitching talent grades out in the 77th percentile out of all SPs in baseball right now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Busch Stadium as the 2nd-worst field in the majors for home runs.

Busch Stadium has the 2nd-deepest RF dimensions in Major League Baseball.

Sonny Gray projects as the 18th-best pitcher in baseball currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Washington Nationals projected offense grades out as the 4th-worst of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability.

Home field advantage typically improves pitcher stats across the board, and Sonny Gray will hold that advantage today.

The Washington Nationals (19.9 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy batting order of the day.

As it relates to his home run ability, Jacob Young ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nolan Arenado has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .309 figure is a good deal higher than his .290 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ranking in the 25th percentile, Nolan Arenado sports a .183 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

Masyn Winn’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased of late, falling from 43.6% on the season to 30% over the last 14 days.

Masyn Winn has been lucky this year, posting a .320 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .285 — a .035 deviation.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Willson Contreras has had positive variance on his side this year. His .386 mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .343.

By putting up a .270 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Keibert Ruiz is positioned in the 8th percentile for hitting ability.

Jesse Winker’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased of late, decreasing from 44.8% on the season to 20% in the past week.