Todays Series Game 4 Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for New York at Pittsburgh Series Game 4 Matchup Today

When estimating his home run skill, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast calls for the 2nd-hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 92°.

Francisco Alvarez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, rising from 11.1% on the season to 25% in the past 14 days.

Checking in at the 93rd percentile for power, Francisco Alvarez has paced 32 homers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

Mitch Keller has averaged 95 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 89th percentile.

The New York Mets have been the 9th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season, PNC Park profiles as the #26 stadium in the league for walks, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In Major League Baseball, PNC Park’s LF fences are the 9th-deepest.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as baseball’s 10th-best home run batter.

Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.

PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.

Pete Alonso has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 92.2-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 89-mph figure.

Jeff McNeil will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Keller in today’s game.

Jeff McNeil has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.2-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 87-mph average.

Jeff McNeil’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 12.7% to 16.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as Major League Baseball’s 19th-best home run batter.

Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Oneil Cruz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Christian Scott in today’s game.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Oneil Cruz can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Josh Palacios has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Christian Scott throws from, Josh Palacios will have the upper hand today.

The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Palacios has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.

The New York Mets outfield defense projects as the 11th-strongest out of every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Nimmo in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Brandon Nimmo is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.

Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Keller throws from, Brandon Nimmo will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically improves pitcher stats across the board, and Mitch Keller will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Among all starting pitchers, Mitch Keller’s fastball spin rate of 2411 rpm ranks in the 79th percentile this year.

Oneil Cruz’s BABIP skill is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 5 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Joey Bart, Jack Suwinski, Nick Gonzales, Oneil Cruz).

Francisco Alvarez, the Mets’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Christian Scott has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 7.29 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.49 — a 1.2 K/9 discrepancy.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Christian Scott.

Bryan Reynolds will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

Francisco Lindor has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 13.7% seasonal rate to 19.4% in the last 14 days.

When estimating his home run talent, Rowdy Tellez ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Rowdy Tellez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Rowdy Tellez will hold the platoon advantage against Christian Scott today.

Rowdy Tellez will probably have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

Francisco Lindor’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (19.4°) is a considerable increase over his 13.4° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 86th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Jose Iglesias has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 89.2-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 86.8-mph EV.

In the last 14 days, Jose Iglesias has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .361.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Josh Palacios will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Harrison Bader has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 7.6% seasonal rate to 20% in the last week.

Over the past 7 days, Harrison Bader’s 37.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 43.5%.

In notching a .269 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Harrison Bader is positioned in the 79th percentile.

When it comes to his home runs, Harrison Bader has had bad variance on his side this year. His 13.8 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.6.

Jeff McNeil’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.D. Martinez in the 91st percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

J.D. Martinez is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

In the last week, J.D. Martinez’s 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47%.

Posting a .352 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, J.D. Martinez grades out in the 90th percentile for offensive skills.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jack Suwinski in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Jack Suwinski will have the handedness advantage over Christian Scott in today’s matchup.

Jack Suwinski is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets has just 1 same-handed RP.

Harrison Bader’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased in recent games, rising from 17.4% on the season to 22.7% in the last two weeks.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season, Over his last 3 outings, Christian Scott has experienced a notable fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2253 rpm over the whole season to 2202 rpm lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Gonzales in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Nick Gonzales is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

Nick Gonzales will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Over the last 14 days, Nick Gonzales has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 18.5° compared to his seasonal mark of 15.3°.

Nick Gonzales has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 15.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount lower than his 24.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Over the past two weeks, J.D. Martinez has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 22.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 17.9°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke’Bryan Hayes in the 77th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Ke’Bryan Hayes will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 79th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Pete Alonso projects as the 19th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When assessing his overall offensive ability, J.D. Martinez ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Jack Suwinski will hold that advantage today.

Monday Series Game 4 player match stat slumps with Mets vs Pirates Matchup

Francisco Alvarez is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

PNC Park profiles as the #26 venue in baseball for right-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The league’s 6th-tallest average fence height can be found at PNC Park.

PNC Park has the 8th-deepest fences among all major league stadiums — generally bad for HRs.

Hitting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Francisco Alvarez will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

The New York Mets projected batting order grades out as the best of the day in terms of overall batting skill.

In his previous outing, Mitch Keller allowed a colossal 5 earned runs.

Mitch Keller’s cut-fastball usage has decreased by 5.1% from last year to this one (24.3% to 19.2%) .

Mitch Keller has been lucky this year, putting up a 3.48 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.34 — a 0.86 difference.

Hitting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Pete Alonso will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

Pete Alonso pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of every team today.

As it relates to his home run ability, Jeff McNeil ranks in the 6th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jeff McNeil is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects PNC Park as the 4th-worst ballpark in the league for left-handed home runs.

In the past week’s worth of games, Oneil Cruz’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.9-mph over the course of the season to 97.9-mph of late.

As it relates to plate discipline, Oneil Cruz’s ability is quite bad, putting up a 4.27 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 15th percentile.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Pete Alonso today.

Josh Palacios’s 7.8° launch angle (an advanced stat to measure a hitter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in MLB: 19th percentile.

Today, Brandon Nimmo is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.1% rate (94th percentile).

Brandon Nimmo will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

The New York Mets (21.8 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy batting order of all teams on the slate.

The #2 venue in the game for suppressing strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Scott to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (12th-most of all pitchers on the slate), taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Christian Scott today.

Bryan Reynolds has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.4-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal average of 95.4-mph.

Bryan Reynolds has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .358 mark is a fair amount higher than his .342 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Mitch Keller, Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Francisco Lindor today.

As it relates to his home runs, Rowdy Tellez has been very fortunate this year. His 18.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 13.5.

Jose Iglesias is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, Jose Iglesias will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Iglesias in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 2nd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Rowdy Tellez’s BABIP ability is projected in the 4th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Harrison Bader is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.

Mitch Keller will hold the platoon advantage against Harrison Bader in today’s game.

Harrison Bader pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 87th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Harrison Bader will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Jeff McNeil will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Jeff McNeil’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined of late, falling from 16.7% on the season to 6.7% over the last 14 days.

Hitting from the same side that Mitch Keller throws from, J.D. Martinez will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

Jack Suwinski is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

By putting up a .257 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Jack Suwinski grades out in the 10th percentile.

Over the last 14 days, Bryan Reynolds’s 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 40.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Christian Scott in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall pitching skills.

Batting from the same side that Christian Scott throws from, Nick Gonzales encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Nick Gonzales’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 93.2-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 88.8-mph over the past 14 days.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for J.D. Martinez in today’s game.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Christian Scott will have the handedness advantage over Ke’Bryan Hayes in today’s game.

Ke’Bryan Hayes’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 92.6-mph average last year has lowered to 88.4-mph.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 4.5°, Ke’Bryan Hayes has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-6.3°) in the past 14 days.

Jack Suwinski’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 14th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jack Suwinski has recorded a .177 batting average this year, grading out in the 2nd percentile.

As it relates to his home runs, Brandon Nimmo has had some very good luck this year. His 21.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.1.

Rowdy Tellez has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .305 figure is quite a bit higher than his .286 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his batting average, Bryan Reynolds has been lucky this year. His .284 figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .264.

Francisco Alvarez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Pete Alonso’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 94.9-mph EV last year has fallen to 91.3-mph.

J.D. Martinez has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 18.2% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the last week.

Nick Gonzales has exhibited weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 8th percentile with a 4.91 K/BB rate.