Todays Matchup Details

Dodgers at Phillies Matchup Prediction for Today

The Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers are set to square off on July 9, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park for the first game of their series. Both teams are riding high this season, with the Phillies holding a 58-32 record and the Dodgers at 55-36. Philadelphia leads the National League East, while Los Angeles is firmly in the playoff race. , On the mound for the Phillies will be Zack Wheeler. Wheeler has been nothing short of elite this season, holding a 9-4 record with an impressive 2.74 ERA. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Wheeler is the 9th-best starting pitcher in the league, making him a significant asset for the Phillies. However, his underlying metrics, such as a 3.49 xFIP, suggest he has been somewhat fortunate, and he may regress slightly., Opposing him will be Bobby Miller for the Dodgers. Miller has struggled this season with a 6.12 ERA but has been unlucky, as indicated by his 4.31 xFIP. His 1-1 record across six starts shows promise, and projections suggest he should perform better moving forward. , The Phillies’ offense is a force to be reckoned with, ranking 5th in MLB according to advanced stats. They are 3rd in team batting average, 7th in home runs, and 4th in stolen bases. Trea Turner has been particularly hot, hitting .360 with a 1.225 OPS over the last week, featuring 4 home runs and 9 RBIs. This potent lineup will be tough for Miller to navigate, especially given his high walk rate (13.8 BB%) against a patient Phillies’ lineup., On the Dodgers’ side, their offense is the best in MLB, ranking 1st overall. They are 6th in team batting average and 3rd in home runs, though only 17th in stolen bases. Will Smith has been the standout recently, boasting a .300 batting average and a 1.367 OPS over the last week, bolstered by 4 home runs and 5 RBIs., The Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, suggesting confidence in Wheeler’s ability to lead them to victory. The game’s total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating an expectation of significant offensive output from both sides. With both teams aiming for playoff positioning, this matchup promises to be an exciting showdown at Citizens Bank Park.

Tuesday Prediction Explination for Dodgers vs Phillies Matchup

Tallying 12.5 outs per game per started this year on average, Bobby Miller checks in at the 4th percentile., Bobby Miller – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155), Miguel Rojas has been lucky this year, putting up a .337 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .287 — a .050 disparity., Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155), The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Teoscar Hernandez, James Outman, Cavan Biggio)., Zack Wheeler’s change-up percentage has risen by 7.8% from last year to this one (0.4% to 8.2%) ., Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110), In the past week, Brandon Marsh’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.8% down to 0%., Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110), According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors., Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline, The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 51 of their last 81 games (+18.20 Units / 13% ROI), Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175), The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.25 Units / 25% ROI), Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110), Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI), Rafael Marchan – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3500)

A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under., Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance., Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts , Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result., Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power., Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.