Todays Game 3 Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Arizona at Tampa Bay Game 3 Matchup Today

When estimating his home run skill, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Eugenio Suarez’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls lately (24.2° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is a significant increase over his 18.2° seasonal angle.

In notching a 24.800 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Eugenio Suarez is ranked in the 78th percentile for power.

Checking in at the 83rd percentile, Eugenio Suarez has posted a .310 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

Jake McCarthy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Jake McCarthy will hold the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen today.

Jake McCarthy has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Jake McCarthy has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 100.4-mph average in the last week to his seasonal EV of 86.9-mph.

Jake McCarthy’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (16°) is considerably higher than his 11.1° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.

Among all major league stadiums, Tropicana Field’s left field dimensions are the 5th-shallowest.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s launch angle this season (15.8°) is quite a bit higher than his 10.7° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 79th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Junior Caminero is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Over the past 7 days, Junior Caminero’s maximum exit velocity (a favorable measure of recent form and raw power) has been 116.3-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in Major League Baseball.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Brandon Lowe is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage over Merrill Kelly today.

Brandon Lowe will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Brandon Lowe has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 92.7-mph over the past week.

Tropicana Field has the 5th-shallowest right field dimensions among all stadiums.

Geraldo Perdomo has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 89.2-mph average to last year’s 87.1-mph mark.

In the last 14 days, Geraldo Perdomo’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 89.2-mph over the course of the season to 96.4-mph in recent games.

Over the last two weeks, Geraldo Perdomo’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 13.1%.

When it comes to his home runs, Geraldo Perdomo has been unlucky this year. His 2.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 12.1.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jonny Deluca will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

In the last 7 days, Jonny Deluca’s 27.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.1%.

Despite posting a .243 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jonny Deluca has had bad variance on his side given the .052 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .295.

Taylor Walls will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Taylor Walls has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 3.3% seasonal rate to 8.3% over the past 14 days.

Taylor Walls’s launch angle in recent games (21.9° over the last 14 days) is considerably higher than his 17.5° seasonal mark.

As it relates to plate discipline, Taylor Walls’s ability is quite strong, sporting a 1.75 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 89th percentile.

Adrian Del Castillo will have the handedness advantage over Drew Rasmussen in today’s matchup.

Adrian Del Castillo has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Adrian Del Castillo has been hot recently, hitting his way to a .407 wOBA in the past 7 days.

Adrian Del Castillo has been hot in recent games, putting up a a 23.1% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) over the past two weeks.

Adrian Del Castillo has been optimizing his launch angle on his hardest hit balls quite well lately, notching a 32.3° angle on such balls in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Christopher Morel is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Christopher Morel will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Christopher Morel has been unlucky this year, posting a .288 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .035 disparity.

Dylan Carlson will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Dylan Carlson’s launch angle lately (24.7° in the last week’s worth of games) is significantly better than his 17.2° seasonal angle.

Last season, Dylan Carlson had an average launch angle of 15° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 23°.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (8.3) suggests that Taylor Walls has been unlucky this year with his 0.0 actual HR/600.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Joc Pederson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Joc Pederson is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Joc Pederson will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Joc Pederson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

Over the last 14 days, Joc Pederson has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 14.4% to 26.1%.

By putting up a 2.06 K/BB rate this year, Geraldo Perdomo has displayed favorable plate discipline, placing in the 75th percentile.

As it relates to his batting average skill, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 14th-best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yandy Diaz is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Yandy Diaz will hold that advantage today.

In the last 7 days, Yandy Diaz’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.3-mph over the course of the season to 97.8-mph in recent games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Josh Lowe is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.

Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Josh Lowe will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Josh Lowe has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Josh Lowe will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.

Corbin Carroll will have the handedness advantage over Drew Rasmussen in today’s game.

Corbin Carroll has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 99.2-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal average of 92.1-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 94th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Josh Bell is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Josh Bell has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Josh Bell has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 92.7-mph over the last 14 days.

Josh Bell’s launch angle this season (11.9°) is considerably better than his 8.7° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dylan Carlson’s true offensive skill to be a .308, indicating that he has been unlucky this year given the .037 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .271 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Drew Rasmussen in the 80th percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.

The #4 park in MLB for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.

Drew Rasmussen will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats in all categories.

Drew Rasmussen’s 95.1-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 87th percentile out of all starters.

Playing on the road generally lessens pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Merrill Kelly in today’s game.

Merrill Kelly has been lucky since the start of last season, notching a 3.25 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.10 — a 0.85 disparity.

Merrill Kelly has been one of the luckiest hurlers in baseball on balls in play this year with a .198 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Yandy Diaz ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Christopher Morel’s launch angle in recent games (34.3° over the last week) is a significant increase over his 14.2° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Merrill Kelly in the 77th percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.

Merrill Kelly has averaged 94.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 87th percentile.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel, Ben Rortvedt).

Josh Lowe has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last season’s 91.3-mph average.

Sunday Game 3 player match stat slumps with D-Backs vs Rays Matchup

Eugenio Suarez is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.

The #2 field in the game for suppressing offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.

The Tropicana Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -8° colder than the average outdoor game on the slate today — favorable for pitching.

Drew Rasmussen will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Eugenio Suarez today.

Out of every team in action today, the best infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 8th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Jake McCarthy will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

The #4 ballpark in the game for suppressing base hits to lefties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.

Despite posting a .365 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jake McCarthy has experienced some positive variance given the .059 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306.

The #4 field in the majors for suppressing base hits to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.

Drew Rasmussen will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Lourdes Gurriel Jr. today.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. today.

Merrill Kelly will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Junior Caminero today.

Junior Caminero has been cold lately, posting a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) in the past week’s worth of games.

In the past week’s worth of games, Junior Caminero’s swing has not been well optimized for home runs, hitting a mere 0% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

13% of the time that Brandon Lowe has started against a righty on the mound this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.

Brandon Lowe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 11th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

The switch-hitting Geraldo Perdomo will bat from his worse side (0) today against Drew Rasmussen, Jonny Deluca is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Jonny Deluca faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Jonny Deluca has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.8-mph dropping to 81.7-mph over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Walls in the 7th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Taylor Walls is penciled in 8th in the batting order today.

The switch-hitting Taylor Walls will bat from his bad side (0) today against Merrill Kelly, Adrian Del Castillo is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Adrian Del Castillo in today’s game.

Merrill Kelly will hold the platoon advantage over Christopher Morel in today’s matchup.

Christopher Morel has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.5% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week.

Over the past 14 days, Christopher Morel’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal mark of 94.5 mph to 84.2 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adrian Del Castillo in the 19th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Dylan Carlson is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.

As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Dylan Carlson will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side against Merrill Kelly in this game.

Dylan Carlson’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 88.3-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 83.1-mph over the past 7 days.

In terms of his home runs, Dylan Carlson has been very fortunate this year. His 10.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 6.3.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Taylor Walls ranks in the 24th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

From last year to this one, Taylor Walls’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 18.1% to 14.4%.

Joc Pederson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joc Pederson’s true offensive skill to be a .352, suggesting that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .047 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .399 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 15th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Merrill Kelly will have the handedness advantage over Yandy Diaz in today’s game.

Yandy Diaz’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (0.4°) is considerably worse than his 4.9° figure last year.

Yandy Diaz’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off lately, decreasing from 39% on the season to 13.3% in the last week’s worth of games.

Brandon Lowe’s launch angle of late (5.8° over the last two weeks) is considerably worse than his 15.5° seasonal angle.

Geraldo Perdomo will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Josh Lowe has been pinch hit for 20% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Josh Lowe’s 4.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.9%.

Corbin Carroll will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

In the last two weeks, Corbin Carroll’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (0.2°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 6.5°.

From last season to this one, Corbin Carroll’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 16.5% to 8.9%.

Josh Bell will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Josh Bell’s launch angle of late (6.5° over the last 14 days) is quite a bit lower than his 11.9° seasonal figure.

Checking in at the 22nd percentile for power, Jake McCarthy has paced 11.6 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Drew Rasmussen to be on a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 74 pitches.

Drew Rasmussen didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out in his previous game started and put up 0 Ks.

Drew Rasmussen has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts since the start of last season, putting up a 9.60 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.90 — a 0.70 K/9 gap.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s estimation, Merrill Kelly’s overall pitching skill is in the 78th percentile among all starters in Major League Baseball currently.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 10th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season, The #3 stadium in baseball for suppressing batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.

Merrill Kelly was on point in his previous game started and gave up 2 ER.

Yandy Diaz has hit 12.2 homers per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 25th percentile for power.

Merrill Kelly didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out in his last start and compiled 2 Ks.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph dropping to 83-mph in the last 14 days.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s launch angle lately (0° in the last week) is quite a bit lower than his 15.8° seasonal figure.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Eugenio Suarez in today’s matchup.

Eugenio Suarez’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 90.2-mph figure last season has decreased to 88.1-mph.

Ranked in the 4th percentile, Jonny Deluca’s average exit velocity of 84.8 mph ranks among the lowest in Major League Baseball this year.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.293) provides evidence that Josh Bell has had some very good luck this year with his .313 actual wOBA.