Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Arizona at Tampa Bay Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Josh Lowe is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, Josh Lowe will have an advantage in today’s game.

Josh Lowe has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Josh Lowe will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Jake McCarthy has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Jake McCarthy will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Pepiot today.

Jake McCarthy has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Over the last 7 days, Jake McCarthy’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.6% up to 13.6%.

Jake McCarthy’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (15.5°) is considerably better than his 11.1° angle last year.

Adrian Del Castillo will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in today’s game.

Adrian Del Castillo has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

In the last week’s worth of games, Adrian Del Castillo has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .478.

In the past week, Adrian Del Castillo has posted a 29° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Eugenio Suarez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.2% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Eugenio Suarez’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (22.5° over the past 14 days) is a considerable increase over his 18° seasonal figure.

Using Statcast metrics, Eugenio Suarez ranks in the 76th percentile for power per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 24.200.

Checking in at the 84th percentile, Eugenio Suarez has notched a .313 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 14th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Yandy Diaz will hold that advantage today.

Yandy Diaz has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 7.4% seasonal rate to 12.9% in the last two weeks.

Among all major league stadiums, Tropicana Field’s RF fences are the 5th-shallowest.

Geraldo Perdomo has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 95.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 88.9-mph.

In the past week, Geraldo Perdomo’s 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44.3%.

In terms of his home runs, Geraldo Perdomo has experienced some negative variance this year. His 2.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been quite a bit lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 10.9.

With a 2.07 K/BB rate this year, Geraldo Perdomo has shown good plate discipline, placing in the 79th percentile.

The 5th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB are found in Tropicana Field.

Jonny Deluca will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

In the past 14 days, Jonny Deluca’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88-mph over the course of the season to 90.1-mph of late.

Jonny Deluca’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, increasing from 14.3% on the season to 23.1% in the last 14 days.

Jonny Deluca has been unlucky this year, putting up a .242 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .295 — a .053 discrepancy.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Pepiot in this matchup.

Ryan Pepiot has put up a .250 BABIP this year, a sign that he has been one of the luckiest hurlers in the majors on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

Arizona Diamondbacks bats as a unit rank near the top of baseball this year (7th-) as it relates to their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.

Josh Lowe has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 92.8-mph in the last 14 days.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Joc Pederson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Joc Pederson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

Joc Pederson will have the handedness advantage over Ryan Pepiot in today’s game.

Joc Pederson pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

Joc Pederson has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 14.1% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the last 14 days.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Junior Caminero ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Junior Caminero is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Sporting a 24.400 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Junior Caminero grades out in the 81st percentile for power.

When estimating his home run talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Christopher Morel is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Christopher Morel will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.321) suggests that Christopher Morel has experienced some negative variance this year with his .287 actual wOBA.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ben Rortvedt, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel, Jose Siri).

Tropicana Field projects as the #4 ballpark in the majors for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In his previous game started, Ryne Nelson performed well and posted 9 strikeouts.

Ryne Nelson’s 94.5-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 75th percentile among all starters.

Jake McCarthy’s BABIP talent is projected in the 90th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, Ben Rortvedt will have an edge today.

Ben Rortvedt has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Ben Rortvedt will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Checking in at the 92nd percentile, Ben Rortvedt has notched a .357 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 89th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Corbin Carroll is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Corbin Carroll will have an edge in today’s game.

Corbin Carroll has an 81st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Over the past week, Corbin Carroll’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.1-mph over the course of the season to 99.4-mph in recent games.

By putting up a .268 batting average this year, Geraldo Perdomo is ranked in the 77th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s launch angle this season (16°) is a considerable increase over his 10.7° angle last season.

As it relates to his home runs, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has had bad variance on his side this year. His 18.2 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 21.7.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 91st percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Placing in the 96th percentile, Junior Caminero has hit 50% of his balls in the air since the start of last season with a velocity of 100 mph or faster.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

Brandon Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Ryne Nelson in today’s game.

Brandon Lowe will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

Brandon Lowe’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 17.6% to 20.6%.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Josh Bell ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Josh Bell is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Josh Bell has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Josh Bell has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 92.5-mph in the past 14 days.

There has been a significant improvement in Josh Bell’s launch angle from last year’s 8.7° to 12° this year.

Taylor Walls will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Taylor Walls has made notable strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 3.4% seasonal rate to 9.1% in the last 7 days.

Compared to his seasonal average of 17.8°, Taylor Walls has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 22° figure in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Taylor Walls has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 0.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is deflated compared to his 8.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Taylor Walls has exhibited good plate discipline this year, ranking in the 89th percentile with a 1.75 K/BB rate.

Taylor Walls has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 90.5-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 86.3-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Ryan Pepiot in the 89th percentile when it comes to his strikeout ability.

Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Ryan Pepiot will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Grading out in the 78th percentile, Ryan Pepiot compiled a 12.3% Swinging Strike rate this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Christopher Morel ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

In the last week’s worth of games, Geraldo Perdomo’s 27.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 12.7%.

Friday player match stat slumps with D-Backs vs Rays Matchup

20% of the time that Josh Lowe has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.

The #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing offensive stats, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.

The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -11° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.

Josh Lowe’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off recently, falling from 15.1% on the season to 5.3% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 9th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 4th-strongest out of all the teams playing today.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jake McCarthy in today’s matchup.

Adrian Del Castillo is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Adrian Del Castillo will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Eugenio Suarez is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Eugenio Suarez has a tough challenge in today’s game.

Tropicana Field grades out as the #27 stadium in Major League Baseball for right-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Hitting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Yandy Diaz will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.

Last season, Yandy Diaz had a launch angle of 4.9° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this season he experienced a significant decline to just 0.2°.

In the past 7 days, Yandy Diaz’s 10.5% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 39%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 9th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Geraldo Perdomo is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Geraldo Perdomo will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Ryan Pepiot in today’s matchup.

Jonny Deluca’s BABIP talent is projected in the 24th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jonny Deluca is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

Ryne Nelson will have the handedness advantage over Jonny Deluca in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Ryan Pepiot in the 85th percentile as it relates to his overall pitching talent.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup today (.313 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .331 wOBA this year.

It may be wise to expect worse numbers for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tropicana Field as the 3rd-worst venue in the majors for batting average.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Joc Pederson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 22% of the time.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Joc Pederson in today’s game.

Ryne Nelson will have the handedness advantage against Junior Caminero in today’s matchup.

Junior Caminero has done a weak job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 1.1° mark is among the lowest in the game since the start of last season (3rd percentile).

Ryne Nelson will hold the platoon advantage over Christopher Morel today.

Over the past 7 days, Christopher Morel’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.6% down to 0%.

Christopher Morel’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 94.5-mph seasonal average has lowered to 84.2-mph over the past 14 days.

Playing on the road generally weakens pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ryne Nelson in today’s matchup.

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ryne Nelson has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 54.7% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.

Checking in at the 9th percentile, Ryne Nelson put up an 8.2% Swinging Strike% this year.

Tropicana Field grades out as the #27 ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Jake McCarthy has been lucky this year, compiling a .365 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .305 — a .060 disparity.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Eugenio Suarez today.

There has been a decrease in Eugenio Suarez’s average exit velocity this season, from 90.2 mph last year to 88.1 mph now, Compared to his seasonal mark of 14.3°, Christopher Morel has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (8.8°) over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Rortvedt in the 9th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Ben Rortvedt is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

When starting against a northpaw this year, Ben Rortvedt has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 15% of the time.

Corbin Carroll will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Corbin Carroll’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, going from 16.5% to 8.9%.

Geraldo Perdomo’s BABIP ability is projected in the 15th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the same side that Ryan Pepiot throws from, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adrian Del Castillo in the 20th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Ranked in the 5th percentile, Jonny Deluca’s average exit velocity of 85 mph ranks among the lowest in Major League Baseball this year.

Placing in the 4th percentile, Jonny Deluca sports a .248 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Brandon Lowe has been pinch hit for 13% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.

In today’s game, Brandon Lowe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (96th percentile).

In the last week’s worth of games, Brandon Lowe’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal mark of 94.7 mph to 92 mph.

Josh Bell will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Josh Bell’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased lately, going from 16.4% on the season to 5.6% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Joc Pederson’s true offensive ability to be a .351, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .047 gap between that mark and his actual .398 wOBA.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 8th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward, In his last outing, Ryne Nelson turned in a great performance and conceded 2 ER.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.293) provides evidence that Josh Bell has been lucky this year with his .315 actual wOBA.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Ben Rortvedt ranks in the 15th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ben Rortvedt has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.6-mph dropping to 74.8-mph in the last 14 days.

Taylor Walls’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Taylor Walls is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this game.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Taylor Walls will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side against Ryne Nelson in today’s game.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Taylor Walls ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Taylor Walls has notched a .248 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 11th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Ryan Pepiot to be on a bit of a short leash in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 84 pitches.

Considering the 0.07 difference between Ryan Pepiot’s 9.69 K/9 and his 9.61 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league this year when it comes to strikeouts and ought to perform worse going forward.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 88.3-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 81.5-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased in recent games, falling from 16.2% on the season to 11.5% in the past 14 days.

Compared to his seasonal angle of 16.1°, Brandon Lowe has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (5.1°) over the past 14 days.

Geraldo Perdomo will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.