Todays Game 3 Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Chicago at Cincinnati Game 3 Matchup Today

T.J. Friedl is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

The #1 ballpark in baseball for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is projected to have the 3rd-highest temperatures of the day at 88°.

Hitting from the opposite that Kyle Hendricks throws from, T.J. Friedl will have an advantage today.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so T.J. Friedl has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jonathan India ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

The #7 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

In the league, Great American Ball Park’s LF fences are the 8th-shallowest.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Great American Ball Park grades out as the #1 field in the league for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Batting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Seiya Suzuki will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the 7th-best field in the game for LHB batting average.

Jake Fraley will have the handedness advantage over Kyle Hendricks in today’s matchup.

The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Fraley has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.

Jake Fraley pulls many of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Patrick Wisdom is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Patrick Wisdom will have the handedness advantage over Nick Lodolo today.

Patrick Wisdom pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Ian Happ is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 85th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Tyler Stephenson is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Tyler Stephenson has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Spencer Steer ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Spencer Steer is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Spencer Steer pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Nico Hoerner is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Nico Hoerner will have an edge today.

Nico Hoerner has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.6% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Among every team in action today, the 2nd-worst outfield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.

Patrick Wisdom projects as the 6th-best home run hitter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 85th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Hitting from the opposite that Nick Lodolo throws from, Dansby Swanson will have an advantage today.

In the past week, Dansby Swanson’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.9-mph over the course of the season to 100.1-mph lately.

The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the worst among every team today.

As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Nick Lodolo in the 90th percentile among all SPs in baseball.

Throwing 91.8 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Nick Lodolo checks in at the 77th percentile.

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats in all categories, and Nick Lodolo will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Nick Lodolo has posted a 12.2% Swinging Strike% this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.

Nick Lodolo has compiled a 25% K% this year, placing in the 80th percentile.

It may be best to expect improved performance for the Cincinnati Reds offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

The #1 ballpark in the majors for boosting home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest RF fences among all parks.

Santiago Espinal has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

Santiago Espinal will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Tyler Stephenson ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Jeimer Candelario will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better the rest of the season, The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 77th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Wednesday Game 3 player match stat slumps with Cubs vs Reds Matchup

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects T.J. Friedl in the 13th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

T.J. Friedl’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined of late; his 86.6-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 73.8-mph over the past 7 days.

T.J. Friedl’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, decreasing from 20% on the season to 0% over the past week.

T.J. Friedl has had some very good luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 20.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably higher than his 8.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Utilizing Statcast metrics, T.J. Friedl is in the 18th percentile for offensive ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .289.

Kyle Hendricks will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jonathan India today.

Jonathan India has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.4-mph dropping to 81.6-mph over the past two weeks.

Jonathan India’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 92.4-mph average last year has fallen off to 88.3-mph.

In today’s matchup, Seiya Suzuki is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 42.4% rate (100th percentile).

Seiya Suzuki will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 15.3°, Seiya Suzuki has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.3°) in the last 14 days.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.321) implies that Seiya Suzuki has been very fortunate this year with his .348 actual wOBA.

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

Jake Fraley’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 16.9% to 12.6%.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.222) provides evidence that Jake Fraley has had positive variance on his side this year with his .274 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Patrick Wisdom in the 7th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Patrick Wisdom in today’s game.

Patrick Wisdom’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 97.4-mph average last year has dropped off to 94.9-mph.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.274) suggests that Patrick Wisdom has experienced some positive variance this year with his .306 actual wOBA.

Based on Statcast metrics, Patrick Wisdom grades out in the 2nd percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .194.

The switch-hitting Ian Happ will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Nick Lodolo, Ian Happ will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Ian Happ has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 11.8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

Over the last week, Ian Happ’s 6.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.3%.

Hitting from the same side that Kyle Hendricks throws from, Tyler Stephenson has a tough challenge today.

Tyler Stephenson has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 9.6% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last week.

Tyler Stephenson’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased in recent games, going from 40.2% on the season to 31.3% in the past 14 days.

Tyler Stephenson has compiled a .251 BABIP this year, ranking in the 13th percentile.

Hitting from the same side that Kyle Hendricks throws from, Spencer Steer will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.

Over the last week, Spencer Steer’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.2% down to 0%.

Placing in the 23rd percentile, Spencer Steer has put up a .269 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Fraley in the 17th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Jake Fraley has hit 3.8 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 3rd percentile for power.

As it relates to his home run talent, Nico Hoerner ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nico Hoerner today.

Nico Hoerner’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 86-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 80.9-mph over the last week.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 2.8°, Nico Hoerner’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls has dropped significantly in recent games (-1.9° in the past 14 days).

Nico Hoerner has been cold recently, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) over the last two weeks.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Fraley has experienced some positive variance this year. His .303 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .272.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.6) may lead us to conclude that Tyler Stephenson has had positive variance on his side this year with his 21.2 actual HR/600.

Jeimer Candelario’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 91.6-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 87.5-mph over the last two weeks.

Jeimer Candelario’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 43.2% to 38.1%.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.5) implies that Jeimer Candelario has experienced some positive variance this year with his 26.1 actual HR/600.

Grading out in the 15th percentile, Jeimer Candelario has posted a .255 BABIP this year.

Power-wise, Jonathan India has performed in the 18th percentile, having averaged 10.3 homers per 600 plate appearances this year.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (34.1) implies that Patrick Wisdom has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his 41.6 actual HR/600.

Ranking in the 5th percentile, Patrick Wisdom sports a .206 batting average since the start of last season.

When it comes to plate discipline, Patrick Wisdom’s ability is quite weak, putting up a 4.04 K/BB rate since the start of last season while ranking in in the 18th percentile.

Dansby Swanson is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this game.

Dansby Swanson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 88th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.

Dansby Swanson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Dansby Swanson has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 8.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past 14 days.

Checking in at the 17th percentile, Dansby Swanson sits with a .281 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 12.4°, Spencer Steer’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls has dropped significantly in recent games (7.8° in the past 14 days).

Over his last 3 GS, Nick Lodolo has suffered a significant drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2367 rpm over the whole season to 2306 rpm in recent games.

Nick Lodolo’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (56.1% this year) is likely harming his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

The 5th-worst projected offense of the day in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.

Over his last 3 games started, Kyle Hendricks has experienced a substantial spike in his fastball spin rate: from 2004 rpm over the entire season to 2063 rpm recently.

Kyle Hendricks’s four-seam fastball rate has decreased by 7.7% from last year to this one (20.3% to 12.6%) .

Considering the 2.52 difference between Kyle Hendricks’s 6.95 ERA and his 4.43 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the game this year and should perform better going forward.

Cincinnati’s 87.6-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in baseball: #30 overall.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 6th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Santiago Espinal is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Kyle Hendricks will have the handedness advantage over Santiago Espinal in today’s matchup.

Santiago Espinal has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 15.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably higher than his 6.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Based on Statcast metrics, Santiago Espinal grades out in the 9th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .273.

Santiago Espinal’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 44.8% to 39.6%.

Over the past two weeks, Tyler Stephenson’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (6.8°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 10.8°.

T.J. Friedl has been lucky in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .266 figure is considerably higher than his .227 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to plate discipline, Jeimer Candelario’s talent is quite bad, sporting a 3.89 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 22nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Nick Lodolo in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall pitching abilities.

Nick Lodolo was on point in his last start and gave up 2 ER.

Santiago Espinal’s 2.2% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) ranks in the 4th percentile this year.

As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Kyle Hendricks in the 21st percentile among all starters in the majors.

Playing on the road generally reduces pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Kyle Hendricks in today’s matchup.

Kyle Hendricks’s 87.2-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 0th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

Kyle Hendricks has notched a 7.6% Swinging Strike percentage this year, ranking in the 5th percentile.

With a 13.100 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Jonathan India is positioned in the 25th percentile for power.