Todays Matchup Details

Cubs at Cardinals Matchup Prediction for Today

The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs are set to kick off a National League Central showdown at Busch Stadium on July 12, 2024. While the Cardinals, boasting a 48-44 record and an above-average season, currently stand as the favorites, the Cubs at 45-49 are looking to shake things up despite having a below-average season. , The Cardinals will send right-hander Sonny Gray to the mound. Gray, who is #16 in the Power Rankings among starting pitchers in MLB, carries a strong 3.30 ERA. However, his impressive 2.75 xFIP suggests he’s been a bit unlucky and might deliver even better results moving forward. The Cubs counter with right-hander Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled with a 7.53 ERA this year, though his 4.31 xFIP indicates better days could be ahead for him as well., Both pitchers had rough outings in their previous starts. Gray allowed 5 earned runs over 5 innings, while Hendricks pitched just 2 innings, giving up 2 earned runs. This battle on the mound could be pivotal, especially given the contrast in their overall performances this season., The Cardinals’ offense ranks 18th in MLB, featuring average capabilities with a lineup led by Brendan Donovan, who holds a .270 batting average. On the other hand, the Cubs’ offense has been lackluster, sitting at 22nd, although Ian Happ’s performance continues to be a bright spot with a .803 OPS., Another key aspect will be the effectiveness of the bullpens. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Cardinals bullpen is among the best, ranked 5th, whereas the Cubs’ bullpen sits at a respectable 12th., The betting odds favor the Cardinals with a moneyline of -195, translating to a 64% implied win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cardinals a 60% chance to win. The Cubs, despite being considerable underdogs with a +165 moneyline and an implied win probability of 36%, might offer some value given their recent 8-0 shutout victory against the Orioles., With both teams looking to start this series strong, much of the game will hinge on whether Gray can outduel Hendricks and if the Cubs’ bats can find their stride against one of the league’s better pitchers.

Friday Prediction Explination for Cubs vs Cardinals Matchup

Kyle Hendricks’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (52.7% compared to 44.7% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs., Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125), Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.223) provides evidence that Michael Busch has experienced some positive variance this year with his .278 actual batting average., Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110), Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (42.1% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup., Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185), Sonny Gray’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2473 rpm) has been significantly lower than than his seasonal rate (2548 rpm)., Sonny Gray – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155), Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year., Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175), St. Louis’s 13.9° launch angle (a reliable metric to assess the ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the steepest in the game this year: #5 overall., The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 28 games at home (+6.15 Units / 18% ROI), St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+100), The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+9.30 Units / 12% ROI), Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120), Brendan Donovan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+19.50 Units / 150% ROI), Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+750/-1600)

A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts., xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can., This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance., Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results., The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher., A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.