Todays Matchup Details

Cardinals at Pirates Matchup Prediction for Today

As we approach the National League Central matchup on July 22, 2024, between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park, both teams find themselves in the thick of the divisional race. The Pirates, holding a 50-49 record, are having an average season, while the Cardinals, at 52-47, are performing slightly above average. This game marks the beginning of a crucial series for both squads., The Pirates will send Mitch Keller to the mound. Keller, a right-hander, has been a steady presence for Pittsburgh with a 10-5 record and an impressive 3.46 ERA over 19 starts. However, his 4.01 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate this season, indicating potential regression. Keller projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, striking out 5.1 batters, and issuing 1.6 walks., On the other side, the Cardinals will counter with Andre Pallante. Pallante, also a right-hander, has a 4-4 record and a 4.21 ERA. Despite his higher ERA, Pallante’s 3.64 xERA indicates he’s been unlucky and could see better results moving forward. Pallante projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 3.7 batters, and issuing 1.9 walks., Offensively, the Pirates have struggled this season, ranking 27th in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Their team batting average is 26th, and they rank 21st in home runs. The Cardinals’ offense, while not elite, is better, ranking 18th overall, with a 13th place in team batting average but a woeful 25th in home runs., Both teams boast strong bullpens, with the Cardinals ranked 5th and the Pirates not far behind at 8th. This strength in relief pitching could be pivotal in a game projected to be close, as evidenced by the Pirates’ moneyline set at -130, implying a 54% win probability, and the Cardinals’ at +110, implying a 46% win probability., Given the Pirates’ slightly higher implied team total of 4.45 runs compared to the Cardinals’ 4.05, Pittsburgh’s offense might have a slight edge. However, the Cardinals’ average offense could find some success against Keller, who has shown signs of potential regression. Keep an eye on how the Pirates’ high-strikeout offense fares against Pallante’s low-strikeout pitching style, as this could be a key factor in the outcome.

Monday Prediction Explination for Cardinals vs Pirates Matchup

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 69.2% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile., Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125), As it relates to his home runs, Alec Burleson has been very fortunate this year. His 30.4 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.0., Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135), In today’s game, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.1% rate (100th percentile)., Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155), Out of all SPs, Mitch Keller’s fastball spin rate of 2408 rpm grades out in the 78th percentile this year., Mitch Keller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130), Ke’Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup., Ke’Bryan Hayes – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175), It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year., The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 56 games (+10.50 Units / 15% ROI), Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140), The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in their last 5 away games (+5.80 Units / 79% ROI), St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-185), Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+8.45 Units / 12% ROI), Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)

Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be., xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can., This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance., Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs., The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher., When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.