Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Milwaukee at St. Louis Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Brendan Donovan is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Among all stadiums, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.

Brendan Donovan will hold the platoon advantage over Frankie Montas today.

Brendan Donovan will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Nolan Gorman as the league’s 18th-best home run hitter.

Hitting from the opposite that Frankie Montas throws from, Nolan Gorman will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Nolan Gorman will hold that advantage today.

Last season, Nolan Gorman had an average launch angle of 21.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 24.5°.

Sal Frelick will have the handedness advantage against Erick Fedde today.

Sal Frelick hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Sal Frelick has displayed impressive plate discipline this year, ranking in the 84th percentile with a 1.82 K/BB rate.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Alec Burleson ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alec Burleson is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Frankie Montas throws from, Alec Burleson will have an advantage today.

Alec Burleson will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Willson Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Willson Contreras’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.7%.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Lars Nootbaar will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Frankie Montas today.

Lars Nootbaar hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Lars Nootbaar will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his home run talent, Willy Adames ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Willy Adames is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Over the last 14 days, Willy Adames has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 11.8% to 23.3%.

Willy Adames’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, rising from 19.7% on the season to 33.3% in the last two weeks.

Joey Ortiz’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved of late, rising from 11.4% on the season to 44.4% over the past 7 days.

Joey Ortiz has notched a .339 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 80th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Joey Ortiz has exhibited impressive plate discipline this year, grading out in the 93rd percentile with a 1.52 K/BB rate.

Masyn Winn is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.

Masyn Winn will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Masyn Winn has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 91.4-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 86.5-mph figure.

Masyn Winn has recorded a .273 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Paul Goldschmidt will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Last season, Paul Goldschmidt had an average launch angle of 12.6° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 16.3°.

In the last week, Paul Goldschmidt’s 23.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Jackson Chourio is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Jackson Chourio hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Jackson Chourio has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 6.9% seasonal rate to 17.1% in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

William Contreras is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 89th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

William Contreras has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 10.1% seasonal rate to 28.6% over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Ortiz in the 80th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.268) implies that Joey Ortiz has had bad variance on his side this year with his .248 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Garrett Mitchell as the 16th-best hitter in baseball when assessing his BABIP ability.

Garrett Mitchell will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde today.

In the last two weeks, Garrett Mitchell’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.2-mph over the course of the season to 104-mph recently.

Brice Turang is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Brice Turang will have an edge today.

Brice Turang has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.8-mph average to last season’s 85.5-mph mark.

As it relates to his batting average, Brice Turang has had some very poor luck this year. His .258 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .289.

Frankie Montas has averaged 93.8 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 84th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Busch Stadium as the 3rd-worst ballpark in the league for home runs.

In Major League Baseball, Busch Stadium’s RF fences are the 2nd-deepest.

Frankie Montas turned in a great performance in his previous GS and conceded 0 ER.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Over the last week, Nolan Arenado’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.4% up to 11.8%.

Nolan Arenado has displayed good plate discipline this year, grading out in the 79th percentile with a 2 K/BB rate.

Victor Scott will hold the platoon advantage over Frankie Montas in today’s game.

Victor Scott hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Victor Scott will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Victor Scott has made significant gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 4.5% seasonal rate to 22.2% over the past 7 days.

Victor Scott has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 93.3-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 89.8-mph mark.

With a .370 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Willson Contreras has performed in the 93rd percentile.

Despite posting a .296 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Paul Goldschmidt has had some very poor luck given the .038 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .334.

In the last week, Sal Frelick’s 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 9.4%.

Compared to his seasonal average of 12.8°, Brendan Donovan has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 23.2° angle in the past 14 days.

Nolan Arenado has notched a .265 batting average this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.

Jackson Chourio has seen a big gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.8-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal 89.5-mph figure.

Frankie Montas’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2421 rpm) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (2367 rpm).

Among all starters, Frankie Montas’s fastball velocity of 94.8 mph ranks in the 77th percentile this year.

With a 0.65 difference between Frankie Montas’s 8.05 K/9 and his 8.70 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and should see better results the rest of the season.

William Contreras has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.7-mph to 96.6-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Erick Fedde has averaged 93.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 83rd percentile.

The Milwaukee Brewers have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Garrett Mitchell, Jake Bauers, Gary Sanchez).

Erick Fedde will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his metrics across the board.

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Erick Fedde must realize this, because he has used his off-speed and breaking balls a lot this year: 70.1% of the time, placing in the 97th percentile.

As a team, St. Louis Cardinals hitters have performed well when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), rating 5th-best in the game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s judgement, Erick Fedde’s overall pitching skill is in the 77th percentile among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball currently.

The Milwaukee Brewers have been the luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward, Positioned 4th-highest in the majors this year, Milwaukee Brewers batters jointly have recorded a 15.8° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (an advanced standard to evaluate power skills).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 82nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Lars Nootbaar has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.8-mph average to last year’s 89.1-mph figure.

In the past two weeks, Nolan Gorman’s 61.1% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 42.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Willy Adames has recorded a .338 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 79th percentile.

Checking in at the 81st percentile, Masyn Winn sits with a .271 batting average this year.

Alec Burleson has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 7.8% seasonal rate to 12.9% over the past two weeks.

Tuesday player match stat slumps with Brewers vs Cardinals Matchup

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Busch Stadium as the 4th-worst stadium in the game for left-handed home runs.

Brendan Donovan has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.

Among every team in action today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Milwaukee Brewers.

In the last week, Brendan Donovan’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal average of 90.9 mph to 87.4 mph.

Last season, Brendan Donovan had a launch angle of 12.3° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this season he experienced a significant decline to just 8.8°.

Nolan Gorman is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Nolan Gorman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

Nolan Gorman has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 16.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 11.1% over the past 14 days.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 20.2°, Nolan Gorman has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (10.9°) in the past 14 days.

When estimating his home run skill, Sal Frelick ranks in the 4th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Sal Frelick is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

Sal Frelick has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 18% of the time when starting against a righty hurler this year.

Sal Frelick will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Alec Burleson has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.

In the past week, Alec Burleson’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal mark of 93.1 mph to 89.6 mph.

Alec Burleson has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 28.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit higher than his 19.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Busch Stadium as the 4th-worst field in baseball for right-handed home runs.

Frankie Montas will hold the platoon advantage over Willson Contreras in today’s game.

Willson Contreras has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

In the last week’s worth of games, Willson Contreras’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.5% down to 0%.

Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.

Lars Nootbaar’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this season (8°) is considerably lower than his 11° figure last season.

This season, there has been a decline in Lars Nootbaar’s footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 27.81 ft/sec last year to 27.01 ft/sec currently.

Hitting from the same side that Erick Fedde throws from, Willy Adames meets a tough challenge today.

Willy Adames pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 83rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences today.

Willy Adames will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Willy Adames’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 88.8-mph seasonal average has lowered to 83.4-mph over the last 7 days.

Joey Ortiz is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Erick Fedde will have the handedness advantage over Joey Ortiz in today’s game.

Today, Joey Ortiz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.9% rate (92nd percentile).

Joey Ortiz will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 19th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Frankie Montas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Masyn Winn in today’s matchup.

Masyn Winn has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences today.

Paul Goldschmidt has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest fences among all major league stadiums — generally bad for home runs.

Frankie Montas will hold the platoon advantage against Paul Goldschmidt in today’s game.

Paul Goldschmidt has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph dropping to 83.5-mph over the past 7 days.

Hitting from the same side that Erick Fedde throws from, Jackson Chourio encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Jackson Chourio will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

When it comes to his home runs, Jackson Chourio has been very fortunate this year. His 21.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 15.5.

Batting from the same side that Erick Fedde throws from, William Contreras encounters a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for William Contreras in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.337) implies that William Contreras has experienced some positive variance this year with his .353 actual wOBA.

Milwaukee’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Nolan Gorman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

Garrett Mitchell is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Garrett Mitchell has been pinch hit for 20% of the time.

In today’s matchup, Garrett Mitchell is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.5% rate (81st percentile).

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Garrett Mitchell in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 5th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

In today’s matchup, Brice Turang is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 42.2% rate (99th percentile).

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Brice Turang today.

Brice Turang’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (3.1°) is a considerable dropoff from his 10.2° mark last season.

Frankie Montas will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

With a 4.83 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that focuses on the things most within a pitcher’s control), Frankie Montas places in the 17th percentile.

Ranking in the 17th percentile, Frankie Montas has compiled a 2.13 K/BB rate this year.

Frankie Montas has displayed poor control this year, compiling a 11th percentile Walk% of 9.9%.

Frankie Montas will hold the platoon advantage against Nolan Arenado in today’s game.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 88.8-mph mark last year has dropped to 85.7-mph.

In the last 14 days, Nolan Arenado’s 7.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.2%.

Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89.7-mph figure last year has dropped off to 87.5-mph.

William Contreras has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .282 rate is a good deal higher than his .266 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Nolan Arenado’s BABIP ability is projected in the 5th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Brice Turang’s 6.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.9%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Victor Scott in the 23rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Victor Scott is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Joey Ortiz has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.8-mph dropping to 84.9-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

Willson Contreras’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 94.9-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 76.6-mph over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Busch Stadium as the 6th-worst stadium in the majors for strikeouts.

When estimating his home run talent, Victor Scott ranks in the 18th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Willson Contreras (the Cardinals’s expected catcher today) profiles as a weak pitch framer.

In his previous outing, Erick Fedde wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out and was only able to tally 2 Ks.

Checking in at the 21st percentile, Erick Fedde notched an 8.9% Swinging Strike rate this year.

With a 0.65 deviation between Erick Fedde’s 3.40 ERA and his 4.05 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB this year and ought to see worse results going forward.

Erick Fedde has been one of the luckiest pitchers in the game on balls in play this year with a .260 BABIP and should see that luck normalize going forward.

Sal Frelick’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 83.5-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 81-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Sal Frelick’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 85.5-mph average last year has fallen to 83.4-mph.

Nolan Gorman’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 18th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In terms of power, Brendan Donovan finds himself in the 20th percentile, having averaged 11 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.

Willy Adames has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .253 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .232 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Garrett Mitchell has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 6.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 7 days.

Masyn Winn’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, decreasing from 43.2% on the season to 30% over the past 7 days.