Lane Kiffin has produced a 34-15 straight-up record and a 25-22-2 against-the-spread mark during his first four seasons in Oxford. Before his arrival, no coach in program history had won more than 31 games in the first four years on the job.
Ole Miss is off an 11-2 campaign that included a 38-25 win over Penn St. as a 5.5-point underdog at the Peach Bowl. The Rebels were +1,036 in net yardage and +11 in turnover margin last season. They posted seven wins by double-digit margins and went 4-0 in one-possession games.
Ole Miss returns 10 starters on offense and 10 on defense. Most important, Kiffin is still around for Year 5 of his tenure. He’s a hot commodity, though, so it’ll be interesting to see how long the Lane Train’s ride in ‘The ‘Sip’ lasts.
Will this be his final season in Oxford or simply one of many more to come? Whatever the case, the 2024 campaign sets up as a monumental one for the Rebels. Kiffin has his most talented team, a proven veteran quarterback, improved size and depth in the trenches on both sides of the ball and a schedule that certainly works.
Phil Steele’s National Unit Rankings have Ole Miss #5 at the quarterback position, #13 at running back, #4 at WR, #13 on the offensive line, #10 on the defensive line, #27 at LB, #23 in the secondary and #65 on special teams.
According to the 247Sports Composite, Ole Miss had the #17 overall recruiting class, but its transfer-specific group is ranked #1. The Rebels have 46 total commits, including one five-star and 18 four-star prospects. Of the 24 transfers, there are seven four-star players and there’s the five-star in DT Walter Nolen (Texas A&M). Sixteen of the transfers are from Power-Four programs.
Jaxson Dart is back for his third season as the starting QB. In 2023, he completed 233-of-358 passes (65.1%) for 3,364 yards with a 23/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Dart had 391 net rushing yards (590 before subtracting sacks) and eight TDs. He’s a preseason fourth-team All-SEC selection in Steele’s magazine.
FanDuel has Dart’s odds at 15/1 to win the Heisman Trophy. Those are tied for the fifth-shortest odds on the board.
Kiffin’s WR room is absolutely loaded. Tre Harris missed one game and most of a second after leaving a 37-20 win at Tulane with an injury in the first quarter. Nevertheless, he had 54 receptions for 985 yards and eight TDs last year, averaging 18.2 yards per catch.
Antwane ‘Juice’ Wells missed nearly all of last season injured for South Carolina, but he was a first-team All-SEC selection in 2022 when he hauled in 68 receptions for 928 yards and six TDs. The Rebels also have Jordan Watkins, who has started 21 times in 26 games since transferring from Louisville.
Watkins had 53 catches for 741 yards and three TDs last season. In 2022, he snagged 40 balls for 449 yards and two TDs.
TE Caden Prieskorn garnered second-team All-SEC honors in his first year at Ole Miss. Despite missing three games to start the season, the transfer from Memphis still produced 30 receptions for 449 yards and four TDs.
Prieskorn exploded for a monster game at the Peach Bowl, torching the Nittany Lions with 10 catches for 136 yards and two TDs. In the Rebels’ last three games, he had 20 grabs for 243 yards and four TDs. Prieskorn and Harris are both preseason first-team All-SEC picks in Steele’s magazine.
In two seasons at Ole Miss, RB Quinshon Judkins became the program’s #3 all-time leader in career rushing yards with 2,725. As a true freshman in 2022, Judkins set the school’s single-season record for rushing yards (1,567) and TDs (16). He was named the 2022 SEC Freshman of the Year and has earned first-team All-SEC honors in back-to-back campaigns.
However, Judkins decided to leave Oxford for a bigger bag of cash provided by Ohio St. boosters. The Rebels will be just fine at the position, though.
Three experienced transfers have arrived to join RB Ulyssess Bentley, who had 540 rushing yards, four TDs and a 5.7 yards-per-carry average in 2023. He’s joined by Logan Diggs, a four-star transfer from LSU who started his collegiate career at Notre Dame in 2021 and ’22.
During his lone year in Baton Rouge, Diggs had 653 rushing yards and seven TDs, averaging 5.5 YPC. He has 1,705 career rushing yards, 14 TDs and a 5.1 YPC average.
Kiffin also landed former Miami RB Henry Parrish from out of the portal. Parrish actually started his career with the Rebels in 2020 and ’21. In 13 games as a sophomore, Parrish produced 553 rushing yards and three TDs, averaging 5.3 YPC. He also had 21 catches for 173 yards.
In two seasons at Miami, Parrish ran for 1,241 yards and 10 TDs. He averaged 6.3 YPC for the Hurricanes last year. The third transfer is ex-Miami (OH.) RB Rashad Amos, who had 1,075 rushing yards and 13 TDs for the RedHawks in 2023, averaging 5.1 YPC.
Ole Miss has four starters back on the offensive line that’s been bolstered by two transfers from Washington, which had the country’s best offensive front last season. The former Huskies are Julius Buelow (6’8″, 313 lbs.) and Nate Kalepo (6’6″, 327 lbs.).
The offensive line room has an incredible 222 career starts! With talent galore on this side of the ball, I expect Ole Miss to improve on its 35.1 points-per-game average from 2023.
The Rebels fielded its best defense of Kiffin’s tenure last year with Pete Golding as defensive coordinator. Golden, who was the DC at Alabama for five years before coming to Oxford, led a stop unit that allowed an average of 22.5 PPG.
Although 10 starters are back, they won’t all remain in the starting lineup. In fact, six transfers came out of spring practice expected to be starters. Those players include MLB Chris Paul Jr. (four-star from Arkansas), STAR Yam Banks (four-star from South Alabama), CB Trey Amos (four-star from Alabama), DT Nolen (five-star from Texas A&M), CB Isaiah Hamilton (three-star from Houston) and DE Princely Umanmielen (four-star from Florida).
In two seasons with the Aggies, Nolen recorded 66 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, five sacks, one fumble recovery and one forced fumble. Umanmielen was a second-team All-SEC selection in his fourth year at UF in 2023. He produced 39 tackles, 17 QB hurries, 11.5 TFL’s and seven sacks. For his career, the former Gator has 99 tackles, 27 QB hurries, 24.5 TFL’s, 15 sacks and three forced fumbles.
In his last two years at Arkansas, Paul produced 136 tackles, 14.5 TFL’s, six sacks, one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. Banks was a first-team All-Sun-Belt pick in 2022 when he helped South Alabama to a 10-3 record by making 50 tackles to go with 11 passes broken up, six interceptions, six TFL’s, one pick-six, one sack and one fumble recovery.
Banks earned third-team All-SBC honors last season after recording 46 tackles, 5.5 TFL’s, four PBU, one sack, one interception and one forced fumble. USA’s defenses gave up only 21.3 PPG in 2022 and 21.0 PPG last year.
Hamilton had 50 tackles, four interceptions for 75 return yards and one TD, four PBU, 3.5 TFL’s and one forced fumble for Houston in 2023. Amos played two seasons for Billy Napier at Louisiana in 2021 and ’22. After recording 35 tackles, eight PBU and one TFL for the Ragin’ Cajuns in 2022, he transferred to Alabama. In 14 games for the Crimson Tide last year, Amos contributed 12 tackles and five PBU.
Ole Miss returns its leading tackler in senior safety Trey Washington, who had 83 tackles, three interceptions, two TFL’s, two PBU, one fumble recovery and one forced fumble.
DE Jared Ivey has started 19 games for the Rebels in the last two seasons. In 2023, Ivey produced 46 tackles, 11.5 TFL’s, 5.5 sacks, five QB hurries, two fumble recoveries, one scoop-and-score TD and one PBU.
DT JJ Pegues is off a solid campaign as well. He recorded 42 tackles, eight TFL’s, four PBU, 3.5 sacks and a pair of QB hurries. Senior safety John Saunders had 65 tackles, five PBU, three interceptions, two TFL’s and one QB hurry.
FanDuel has Kiffin’s team with the fifth-shortest odds (15/1) to win the College Football Playoff. The Rebels are -125 to make the CFP, which are the seventh-shortest odds. They are +750 to win the SEC Championship Game.
Remember, though, Ole Miss has never made an SECG appearance since the game’s creation in 1992.
As of July 15, FanDuel had Ole Miss listed as a 42.5-point home favorite in its opener vs. Furman. The total was 60.5 points.
In FanDuel’s Games of the Year, the Rebels appear only once as 2.5-point road underdogs (with a -105 price) at LSU. They’re +115 on the money line and the total 63.5 points.
Circa has Ole Miss as a three-point underdog at LSU, a five-point home favorite vs. Oklahoma, a seven-point home ‘dog vs. Georgia and a 21-point home ‘chalk’ vs. Mississippi St. in the Egg Bowl.
As for DraftKings, it has the Rebels as 2.5-point road ‘dogs at LSU, six-point home favorites vs. OU, seven-point home ‘dogs vs UGA and 6.5-point road ‘chalk’ vs. Florida.
FanDuel has Ole Miss’s season win total at 9.5 (-115 ‘over,’ -105 ‘under’).
Barring a rash of injuries, the Rebels will be double-digit favorites in at least their first four games (vs. Furman, vs. Middle Tennessee, at Wake Forest and vs. Ga. Southern) and possibly their first six. There aren’t any Games of the Year numbers for a Week 5 home game vs. Kentucky or an Oct. 5 trip to South Carolina, but it’s a given that Kiffin’s team will be favored in both spots.
Ole Miss has won three straight head-to-head meetings over Kentucky and has prevailed in 12 of its last 14 home contests. The Rebels will be making their first trip to Williams-Brice Stadium since 2009 when they lost to the Gamecocks on the road.
South Carolina will be in an advantageous spot since it has two weeks to prepare. On the flip side, Ole Miss will be playing its sixth game in six weeks. Likewise, when the Rebels go to Baton Rouge on Oct. 12, LSU will have had two weeks to get healthy and prep for Kiffin and Co.
Ole Miss finally gets its first open date on Oct. 19, putting it in a favorable spot the following week when the Sooners make their debut trip to The Grove and Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. With a home game against Georgia on deck for Nov. 9, the Rebels are in a flat situation when they play at Arkansas on Nov. 2. The home team has won each of the last five head-to-head meetings in this rivalry. In 2022, Ole Miss became the first squad since 2000 to produce more than 700 yards but not score 30 points in a 42-27 loss to the Razorbacks in Fayetteville.
Georgia has beaten Ole Miss in 11 of the last 12 encounters, including a 52-17 home win as a 10.5-point home favorite. The Bulldogs are 8-4 ATS in those 12 most recent meetings with the Rebels, who have lost 11 games in a row against top-five opponents.
After facing UGA, Ole Miss has an open date ahead of a trip to The Swamp on Nov. 23. In their last visit to Gainesville in 2015, the third-ranked Rebels trailed Florida 25-0 at halftime and eventually dropped a 38-10 decision.
When Billy Napier’s team hosts Ole Miss, it will be in its fourth game in four weeks against a murderer’s row of competition. The Gators take on UGA in Jacksonville on Nov. 2, then they play at Texas (when the Longhorns are coming off an open date) before hosting LSU on Nov. 16.
As always, Ole Miss will play its regular-season finale against its most bitter rival, Mississippi St. The home team has lost three consecutive contests in this rivalry and is on a 0-8-1 ATS slide. The ‘under’ has cashed in seven straight Egg Bowls, staying below the total by an average of 16.0 PPG.
The Rebels don’t have to play Alabama, Texas, Missouri, Tennessee or Texas A&M. I’ll once again point out that injuries can always change things but as it stands now, they’re favored by at least five points in 10 of their 12 games. And hey, I’m not conceding defeat at LSU and/or at home vs. UGA.
I’ve successfully backed Ole Miss to go ‘over’ its season win totals in back-to-back seasons, including last year’s ‘over’ 7.5 bet for 1.5 units of profit.
We’re obviously dealing with a larger number here, but I think we’re poised to hit a winner once again.
PREDICTION: Two units on Ole Miss ‘over’ 9.5 wins at a -115 price.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-Ole Miss returns 71 percent of its offensive production and 52 percent of its defensive production.
-In Steele’s preseason magazine, the Rebels have three All-Americans. Harris is a second-team selection, while Prieskorn and Nolen are third-team picks.
-Ole Miss has 11 players on Steele’s All-SEC teams. Harris, Prieskorn and Nolen are first-team choices, while Wells and Hamilton are second-team selections. Pegues, Umanmielen and Saunders are third-team picks, while Dart, Paul and Watkins (as a punt returner) are fourth-team choices.
-Watkins had 114 return yards and one TD on 12 attempts, averaging 9.5 yards per punt return in 2023.
-Although he didn’t garner any preseason All-SEC love, Ole Miss has a solid and reliable kicker in Caden Davis, who buried all 45 of his extra-point attempts last year and 18-of-23 field goals. Davis made a career-long 56-yarder, missed inside of 40 yards just once and had two of his five misses come from beyond 50 yards out. He had 72 touchbacks on 87 kickoffs.
-Steele’s magazine, with the help of Draftscout’s Josh Buchanan and Brian Hitterman, ranks players separately in terms of how they project in the 2025 NFL Draft. Buchanan and Hitterman have Dart ranked as the second-best QB eligible for next spring’s draft, slotting him behind only Georgia’s Carson Beck and ahead of Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. As for the Ole Miss RBs, Diggs is ranked #28, Bentley is #55, Amos is #65 and Parrish is #73. At the WR position, Harris is #13, Wells is #34 and Watkins is #74.