Several NFL head coaches were fortunate to survive the 2021-22 season, but they will open the 2022-23 campaign on the hot seat.
Nine teams are entering the season with a new head coach, so that realistically eliminates nearly a third of the league’s coaches from this prop. There are also plenty of proven winners holding jobs across the league that have no shot at being canned. However, offshore sportsbook BetOnline was still able to come up with a balanced prop market regarding the next head coach to be fired or resign from their position.
Carolina’s Matt Rhule sits atop the list after winning just five games in each of his first two seasons at the helm. He fired Joe Brady and replaced him with former Giants head coach Ben McAdoo, so the blame will fall squarely on Rhule if he struggles to put up points again this year.
Former Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield will try to beat out Sam Darnold for the starting job. Rhule needs quality quarterback play to save his job, which is why he is the +300 ‘chalk’ to be the first coach fired this season.
Dallas head man Mike McCarthy is second in the market at +450 as he heads into another season with the Cowboys. They had a bit of a resurgence last year, cruising through the NFC East to a 12-5 record before losing at home to San Francisco in the playoffs. Dallas fans have as high of expectations as any team in the league, so losses at home in the postseason won’t cut it.
It might also be time for Seattle to move on from long-time coach Pete Carroll. He is coming off his first losing season since 2011, ending with a 7-10 record. Carroll won’t be able to lean on star quarterback Russell Wilson anymore either, as he is now with Denver.
The Seahawks have issues on both sides of the ball, so leadership might choose to wipe the slate clean at some point. Carroll has the third-shortest odds (+600) to be the first coach fired this season.
There are two other coaches that are priced inside of 10-1 in the prop market. Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich and Washington’s Ron Rivera could both be on the way out soon.
Reich, who is listed at +700, has led Indianapolis to a 37-28 record and two playoff appearances in four seasons, but the Colts failed to clinch a playoff spot in a Week 18 loss to Jacksonville last year, leaving a bad taste in the mouth of the fan base. He has yet to record a postseason victory with a talented roster, which is why he’s near the top of the list.
Rivera (+800) brought much needed stability to Washington in 2020, but the defense regressed and the offense struggled in 2021. The team faltered to a 7-10 record despite entering the year with playoff expectations.
Some coaches that seem to be on the safer side right now—but could wind up getting the pink slip sooner rather than later—include Detroit’s Dan Campbell (10-1) and Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski (10-1).