Von Hagen likes ‘Bama ‘over’ 11 wins, Rebels ‘under’ 8

Alabama LB Will Anderson returns to lead a defense that allowed 20.1 PPG last year, the most points allowed by the Tide since Nick Saban's first year on the job in 2007.

There have been plenty of coaching and transfer changes over the past few months, but that has not stopped sportsbooks from slowly releasing season win totals for the upcoming college football season.

WynnBET was the first to the market with win totals last month, while offshore sportsbook Bovada has been one of the other books to post lines recently.

Here are several SEC win totals that I am keen on, even though the regular season is still four months away—all of the odds are courtesy of Bovada.

Alabama Over 11.5 (+190)

Death, taxes and an Alabama season win total that forces bettors to wager on whether or not the Crimson Tide will lose a game in the regular season.

I am very high on their chances of completing a sixth undefeated regular season under Nick Saban. That statistic alone—five previous undefeated campaigns—makes me feel good about taking the ‘over’ in 2022.

Alabama and Ohio State have separated themselves from the pack heading into the season, as several power ratings have the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes at least a one-touchdown favorite over every other team in the country. Saban’s squad returns crucial experience from last year’s team, including offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien, quarterback Bryce Young and linebacker Henry To’o To’o.

The Crimson Tide are going to be improved along the offensive line and their defense has more returning experience than usual. Young has added several weapons at skill positions from the transfer portal, so this team could wind up being better than the undefeated 2020 squad.

Then there is the schedule—Alabama misses Georgia, Florida and Kentucky this season, as their rotating SEC East opponent will be a home game against Vanderbilt. They will have some tricky games against Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Ole Miss, but it would take a major upset for Alabama to drop any of those games.

The lack of wiggle room for this wager is going to scare some bettors away, but taking Alabama at +190 to finish the regular season with an undefeated record is my favorite SEC win total bet.

Ole Miss Under 8 (-125)

Ole Miss is probably one of the most complicated college football teams to handicap heading into the season.

The Rebels lost a ton of talent, headlined by quarterback Matt Corral, who was drafted last week. However, head coach Lane Kiffin hit the transfer portal hard, upgrading the talent at several positions.

They snagged USC quarterback Jaxson Dart and TCU running back Zach Evans to go along with several veteran additions on the defensive side of the ball. There are also changes to the coaching staff, as Kiffin brought in new coaches at defensive coordinator, special teams coordinator and football chief of staff.

Ole Miss is going to put up points again this year, but its defense is going to struggle again. The Rebels barely cracked the top 100 in success rate and finishing drives defensively last year.

They are facing an easy non-conference schedule and have a game against Vanderbilt in SEC play. However, Kiffin’s squad is going to struggle against multiple other SEC opponents. Outside of last year, Ole Miss had not posted seven wins since 2015.

The Rebels will have trouble putting all their new pieces together in 2022, with a push looking like the worst-case scenario for this wager.

Sportsbooks will continue to release team totals for all 130 FBS teams, so stay tuned to MajorWager for more suggested wagers this summer.

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