Von Hagen eyes three different 2020 NFL Draft props

Who will come off the board first -- Oregon QB Justin Herbert or Alabama QB Tua Taglovailoa -- in the 2020 NFL Draft?

The NFL Draft will be in uncharted territory when it takes the virtual stage on Thursday night due to COVID-19.
Monday afternoon’s mock draft with NFL GM’s dealt with several technical glitches that might rear their head again when the actual event commences on Thursday, including bandwidth and technical difficulties.

Regardless, Circa Sports and BetOnline each released a huge slate of odds for this year’s draft. Here are several props I have my eye on:

Tua Tagovailoa Over 5.5 (-110) [BetOnline]
There has been some major line movement on Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s draft position. He was once listed at -500 to be the second quarterback off the board, but is now down to -120 to be the second signal caller taken.

With Joe Burrow set to go first overall, the prop is likely between Tagovailoa and Oregon’s Justin Herbert. I’m looking in the direction of his draft position, though.

His injury history is clearly scaring some teams and bettors, as seen by the line movement. Herbert is the safer pick, which is generally the route teams go with a top-five pick.

There is also a slim possibility neither Herbert nor Tagovailoa are drafted in the top five, which creates more value on the ‘over.’ I see NFL front offices being cautious with Tagovailoa, which has me thinking he will fall out of
the top five and probably end up with the Chargers at No. 6.

CeeDee Lamb Under 12.5 (-150) [Circa]
NFL talent evaluators have been all over CeeDee Lamb since the end of the college football season. He has quickly closed the gap that previously existed between himself and Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy.

Lamb is now a +100 ‘chalk’ to be the first wide receiver off the board at BetOnline, with Jeudy following at +120. Las Vegas GM Mike Mayock reportedly ‘loves’ Lamb, which is important for this prop.

The Raiders have the No. 12 pick in the draft and will likely take Lamb, because they are looking to snag a wide receiver early on.

This prop has been steamed to -190 on the ‘under’ 12.5 at BetOnline.

Jeff Okudah Third Pick (+125) [BetOnline/Circa]
Bettors can get down on this prop several different ways. The easiest is to simply take Okudah as the third pick at BetOnline, which is offered at +125.

Vegas-based bettors can take an exacta of Burrow-Young-Okudah as the first three picks, which is also +125. Burrow is a lock to go No. 1 and Young is -2000 to go No. 2, so each prop is essentially asking the same question.

As for the third pick, it currently belongs to the Lions. If Detroit decides to trade it away, this prop almost certainly loses.

However, many experts are assuming that the Lions are going to end
up keeping the pick and selecting Okudah. As ESPN’s Mel Kiper says, “Matt Patricia is 9-22-1 in two seasons as coach, so he needs to win now to keep his job. His best bet might be taking the draft’s best cornerback.”

Detroit had the league’s worst pass defense in 2019, so I see some definitive value at plus-money on Okudah going third overall.

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