TNF Preview: Tennessee at Green Bay

Tennessee RB Derrick Henry has 923 rushing yards, nine TDs and a 4.6 yards-per-carry average through nine games.

Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans

Line: Green Bay -3

Total: 41

Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

When: Thursday, 11/17 at 8:15 p.m. ET

TV: Amazon Prime

Something has to give when the Green Bay Packers host the Tennessee Titans on Thursday night at Lambeau Field.

Tennessee has covered the spread in seven consecutive games following a 17-10 win over Denver on Sunday, but Green Bay has won 13 of its last 15 primetime contests. The Packers have also covered the spread in eight of their last nine games under the lights.

Offshore sportsbook BetOnline opened Green Bay as a 1-point home favorite in the look-ahead line last week before officially opening the Packers at -2 on Sunday night. There has been some movement on the home team since then, pushing the line up to -3.

The total saw some slight early movement, climbing a point from the opener of 41 to 42 points, as of Tuesday afternoon. However, the number was back to 41 as of early Wednesday morning. Tennessee has gone ‘under’ the total in six straight games and eight of its nine games this season, holding five of its last six opponents to 17 points or less.

Their strong defensive effort has allowed the team to maintain a high winning percentage despite their offense failing to score more than 24 points in a game all year. They were without multiple key defensive players in their win over Denver on Sunday, including lineman Jeffery Simmons, safety Amani Hooker and outside linebacker Bud Dupree—all three of them were listed as ‘questionable’ for Thursday night at the time of writing.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill missed two straight games due to a sprained ankle, but he returned last week. He completed 19 of 36 passes for 255 yards and two touchdowns against the Broncos, although his mobility was clearly limited. Star running back Derrick Henry was held under 100 rushing yards for the first time since late September, turning 19 carries into just 53 yards.

He is facing a Green Bay defense that allowed 5.1 yards per carry to Dallas last week. The Packers were still able to snap a five-game losing streak though, essentially keeping their season alive. They had fallen to three games below the .500 mark and were in danger of quickly fading from playoff contention.

DraftKings has Green Bay listed at +300 to make the playoffs this season, while Tennessee is a heavy -650 favorite. The Packers trailed Dallas by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter before veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers led a pair of long scoring drives to send the game to overtime.

Rodgers finished with three touchdown passes to rookie wide receiver Christian Watson, and he led a 55-yard drive to set up a game-winning field goal from Mason Crosby. Watson, who has dealt with injury issues this season, entered Sunday with 10 receptions for 88 yards. He became the first Packers rookie since Keith Woodside (1988) to have multiple touchdown catches in a game.

“We’ve seen what we can be, and we’ve seen it was only us getting in our own way,” Watson said. “All we had to do was believe.”

Running back Aaron Jones leads the Green Bay rushing attack with 131 carries for 738 yards and two touchdowns, while running back A.J. Dillon has 454 rushing yards and a score. Wide receiver Romeo Doubs (ankle) is going to miss this game, but veteran wideout Randall Cobb (ankle) could make his return from the injured reserve.

Green Bay has only covered the spread twice in its last seven games, but it is 16-4 in its last 20 home games. The Packers and Titans have gone ‘over’ in six of their last seven head-to-head meetings, with the most recent occurrence being a 40-14 Green Bay victory two years ago.

The pick: Green Bay -3

Tennessee has been a statistical anomaly so far this season. The Titans are dead-last in the NFL in offensive yards per game, and their defense is No. 23 in yards allowed per game. They have still found a way to win six of their last seven games and cover the spread in all of those contests, though. The stats and injuries have to catch up to Tennessee at some point, particularly on the road against a team that rarely loses at home. Green Bay finally has some momentum after putting together a late comeback against Dallas, breathing life into the fan base and team heading into this game. The Packers are nearly impossible to beat in primetime, and they are dealing with less injury issues than the Titans.

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