Super Bowl Props

Evan McPherson has made 4-of-4 field-goal attempts in all three postseason games, but his 'over/under' for field goals made in the Super Bowl is only 1.5.

While pro sports bettors might not bet big on the side and total in the Super Bowl, there is a reason that sharps tie up more money in the Super Bowl than any other game.

Sportsbooks offer props ranging from the coin toss to the color of Gatorade poured on the winning head coach. If you can avoid non-profitable wagers such as the coin toss, there are plenty of chances to profit during the big game. As always, shop around to find the best available price.

I’ll open the floor with a few player props before moving to some of my favorite exotic props offered on offshore sportsbook BetOnline for Sunday’s game between the Rams and Bengals:

Joe Burrow over 11.5 rushing yards (-120)

This prop is strongly correlated to the amount of pressure brought from opposing defenses.

Burrow rushed for 25 yards against Kansas City in the AFC Championship, and he will be facing even more pressure from the Los Angeles defensive line. He has been pressured on more than 36 percent of his drop backs in the playoffs, getting sacked nine times by Tennessee in the divisional round.

He is going to get sacked a few times—the current over-under on that prop is 3.5—but he will also be able to scramble several times as well. Burrow has reached double-digit rushing yards in four of his last six games and he will be doing everything it takes to keep Cincinnati in this game. All it takes is one solid run to cash this prop.

Matthew Stafford under 36.5 pass attempts (-110)

Stafford aired the ball out against Tampa Bay and San Francisco, which has led to an inflated number for this prop.

He went ‘under’ 36.5 pass attempts in five of his six games before that, with the one ‘over’ being exactly 37 attempts. The high passing volume in the last two games is due to the strong run defenses of Tampa Bay and San Francisco. Cincinnati is better in the secondary than it is up front, so the Rams should be feeding Cam Akers throughout the evening (I don’t mind Akers O16.5 rushing attempts, either).

This is also Stafford’s first appearance in the Super Bowl, so I expect Sean McVay to use the rushing attack to calm some of Stafford’s nerves. Cincinnati and Los Angeles are both in the bottom half of the NFL in pace of play, which means there will be fewer opportunities than normal for Stafford.

Evan McPherson O1.5 made field goals (-115)

McPherson has had one of the best rookie seasons of any kicker in NFL history, going 28 of 33 on field goals during the regular season.

He has been able to build on that success in the postseason, drilling game-winning kicks against Tennessee and Kansas City. McPherson has gone 4-for-4 in each of the three playoff games, knocking in three kicks from 50-plus yards out. The Bengals have a ton of faith in their placekicker and are not scared to settle for field goal tries.

Los Angeles is strong defensively, so Cincinnati will likely have several drives stall in field-goal range. I love the ‘over’ 1.5 at standard juice for a guy who has made four in each of his last three games. The kicking conditions will be ideal inside SoFi Stadium, which is a bonus.

Under 1.5 chain measurements (-165)

Now it is time to get to a few fun props offered by BetOnline.

I have hit this exact prop the last three Super Bowls. The juice was actually worse during those games, closing at -175 in 2019 and 2020 before getting juiced to -250 last season.

I do not have any mind-blowing math for this prop, except that there has not been a single measurement in the last three Super Bowls. We have some margin for error in this game, as one measurement would still cash the ‘under.’ I will continue hitting this every season as long as Dave Mason and co. offer it.

Under 1.5 times “home field advantage” is said (-200)

This prop was actually offered last season as well, as Tampa Bay hosted the Super Bowl at Raymond James Stadium.

However, BetOnline had the over-under at 0.5 instead of 1.5…and the ‘under’ cashed. This bet might not look like much on the surface, but it is the verbiage that creates value, especially with the total being bumped up to 1.5 this season.

Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth must specifically refer to it as “home field advantage” for it to count towards the prop. There are many other ways to refer to it, such as saying “the Los Angeles crowd gives the Rams an edge,” etc.

The prop specifies that it must happen between kickoff and the final whistle. Halftime does not count either, so I like the ‘under’ on this exotic prop as well.

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