By Sunday night’s Super Bowl will be attracting the largest betting handle of the year, with many experts projecting $1 billion worth of wagers on this year’s game between the Chiefs and Eagles.
The spread and total have been drilled down by now, but sportsbooks have been adding props to the market over the last week and a half, giving bettors another way to attack the game. Mainstream books are offering an array of player props, while offshore books have some exotic offerings that can’t be found elsewhere.
I’ll hit on a few player props before moving to an exotic prop that should be an easy way to build the bankroll on Sunday night:
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (-114 at Caesars)
Kelce has been a touchdown scoring machine in the postseason, reaching the end zone in eight of his last nine playoff games. He scored two touchdowns against Jacksonville in the divisional round before adding a score against Cincinnati in the AFC Championship.
The Chiefs have less receiving weapons this year than they have had in prior years, especially with some of the injuries that they are dealing with coming into this game. Kelce had 51 more targets than any other player on the team during the regular season, and was targeted 17 times in the win over the Jaguars.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, who was the second-leading target for Patrick Mahomes this season, is ‘questionable’ to play on Sunday night due to a knee injury. Kelce’s playoff history and Kansas City’s lack of depth at the receiver position have created value on this prop.
Jalen Hurts under 50.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
This prop opened at 44.5 early last week, but it has been getting steamed ever since then…and I’m not buying the movement.
Not only did Hurts crack that mark in less than half of his games during the regular season, but he has failed to do so in his three games since returning from a shoulder injury. He has increased his rushing yards in all three of those games, yet he has still not reached the 40-yard mark in a game since before being sidelined.
Hurts also had less than 40 rushing yards in his lone playoff game last year, bringing his playoff career average to just 37 yards per game. Kansas City has had two weeks to prepare for Philadelphia’s scheme, and the Chiefs know that Hurts’ legs are a big part of the game plan. I think this over/under should be about 10 yards lower than it is, creating some clear value at this price.
A.J. Brown Over 8.0 targets (-115)
Brown’s targets fluctuated heavily during the first half of the season as he was integrated into the offense, going under eight targets in six of his first 11 games.
He has been targeted at least eight times in five of his last six games, though, finishing the regular season with an average of 8.53 targets per game. Brown was the No. 1 target for Hurts in the regular season, racking up nearly 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Despite rolling to a blowout win over the 49ers in the NFC Championship, the Eagles still found a way to get Brown eight targets. I expect him to be heavily involved in Sunday’s game, especially with Kansas City’s high-powered offense on the other side of the field.
Under 1.5 chain measurements (-300 at Bovada)
I have hit this prop the last four Super Bowls. The juice has been all over the place during those games, closing at -175 in 2019 and 2020 before getting juiced to -250 in 2021 and 2022.
Well, the books finally seem to be adjusting to the cash cow that this prop has been. BetOnline opened at -200 and has been blasted all the way to -500 at the time of writing (Wednesday evening). Bovada has made its price more expensive this year as well, but I am still convinced there is value at this number.
Not only has the ‘under’ hit in four straight Super Bowls…there has not been a single chain measurement in those games. It would take something very fluky for there to be two measurements on Sunday night, making this prop a bankroll builder. Bovada has relatively high limits as well, setting the max win at $600.
