Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Betting Preview
Line: New York -130
Where: Fenway Park
When: Sunday, 7/10, at 7:08 p.m. ET
Boston might have picked up a 6-5 win in 10 innings against rival New York on Saturday night, but that will hardly put a dent in the Yankees stranglehold on the American League East.
They are still 15 games ahead of the Red Sox atop the division standings, as they won the first two games of this series. Boston will try to salvage a series split and add some cushion in the AL Wild Card race when the teams wrap things up in primetime on Sunday night.
New York opened as a -140 road favorite for the series finale, but the early betting action has pushed the line down to -130. The total has not seen any movement after opening at nine, with some slight juice to the ‘over’ at most sportsbooks.
Alex Verdugo was able to rally the Red Sox twice on Saturday, tying the game with a single in the eighth inning before capping a three-run tenth inning with a two-run single to end the game. Boston was able to snap a four-game losing streak, improving to just 10-20 against division opponents.
The Red Sox have lost all nine of their series against AL East teams this season, so a split on Sunday night would snap that ugly trend. They started a rookie pitcher for the fourth straight game on Saturday, as Kutter Crawford allowed one run and four hits across five innings of work.
It will be a veteran on the mound for Boston on Sunday, as right-hander Nick Pivetta is looking to bounce back. He allowed seven earned runs on eight hits and two walks across 5.2 innings against Tampa Bay on Tuesday. The Rays jumped out to an early lead with a bases-loaded double from Kevin Kiermaier and then consistently added hits throughout the game.
Pivetta had been very solid prior to that start, though, logging quality starts in 10 of his previous 11 outings. He is now 8-6 with a 3.68 ERA and 95 strikeouts overall this season, which is much better than his career 4.88 ERA.
New York will counter Pivetta with right-handed pitcher Jameson Taillon, who is coming off a poor outing of his own. He allowed five earned runs on six hits across 5.1 innings against Pittsburgh on Tuesday, allowing a pair of home runs.
The 30-year-old has now allowed 14 earned runs over his last three starts, with his most recent quality start coming back on June 3. He has still been able to post three wins during that stretch due to New York’s strong offense, so he will be aiming for double digits on Sunday. Taillon is 9-2 with a 3.63 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 2022.
New York, which tops the MLB with 144 home runs this season, is led by outfielder Aaron Judge, who is the +115 ‘chalk’ to win the AL MVP. He has hit 30 home runs and driven in 64 runs, batting at a .282 clip. Boston’s top bat is third baseman Rafael Devers, who is batting .327 with 19 homers and 51 RBIs.
The Yankees have gone 40-12 in their last 52 games against a right-handed starting pitcher, including a 19-7 in their 26 such road games. Boston is a remarkable 7-0 in its last seven games played on a Sunday, but the Red Sox are 1-4 in their last five games against a right-handed starter.
The pick: Red Sox +120
While New York has all the appeal due to its home run numbers, Boston actually leads the majors in team batting average. The Yankees can be susceptible to off nights due to their inconsistency at the plate, ranking in the middle of the MLB in batting average. They are also coming off an emotional walk-off loss after blowing a pair of leads, so Boston has some momentum heading into the series finale at home in front of what will be a raucous crowd. There is not much between these starting pitchers this year either, and both of them are coming off poor starts. I will take the plus-money spot with the home team that has a better batting average and an equally strong starting pitcher, especially because it means an opportunity to fade the public. It is not surprising that the early sharp money has been on the Red Sox.