Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Kansas City -2.5
Where: Allegiant Stadium
When: Sunday, 11/14 at 8:20 p.m. ET
Kansas City is on a two-game winning streak, but there might be even less optimism surrounding the Chiefs than there was two weeks ago.
They have scored just 12 points per game in wins over the Giants and Packers, as start quarterback Patrick Mahomes was held to 166 passing yards last week. The Chiefs took advantage of an Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay offense, holding them to just seven points in a 13-7 final.
Kansas City will now try to climb back to the top of the AFC West. It travels to Las Vegas trailing both the Raiders and Chargers by one game in the standings—the Raiders are coming off a 23-16 loss to the Giants in Week 9.
Oddsmakers opened the Chiefs as 3-point road favorites for Sunday night’s showdown, but the early betting action has pushed that line down to -2.5. The total has seen even more movement, dropping from the opener of 53.5 to the current number of 51.5.
Kansas City’s disappointing offensive output over the last few weeks has certainly shaped the betting numbers for this game. The Chiefs were blown out in a 27-3 final at Tennessee before sneaking past injury-riddled New York and Green Bay. Mahomes has been held under 275 passing yards in each of his last three games.
Despite the disappointing numbers of late, Kansas City’s offense still ranks seventh in the NFL with 393.3 yards per game. Mahomes has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 2,534 yards and 20 touchdowns, but he has also thrown 10 interceptions. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire returned to practice after missing the last four weeks with a sprained MCL, but head coach Andy Reid said “it’s probably a stretch” to have him back on the field for this game.
With Edwards-Helaire sidelined, running back Darrel Williams has been the bell cow back. He has rushed 84 times for 300 yards and four touchdowns, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce have both gone over 600 receiving yards.
Kansas City’s offense will be facing a Las Vegas defense that ranks tenth in the NFL, allowing 340.6 yards per game. The Raiders enter Week 10 tied with Los Angeles at the top of the AFC West with a 5-3 record. They had their two-game winning streak snapped in a disappointing loss to the Giants following their bye week.
Quarterback Derek Carr turned the ball over three times in the loss, throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble. Carr is going to be without wide receiver Henry Ruggs III moving forward, so he will need to find another reliable target. He has completed 67.3 percent of his passes for 2,565 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Ruggs was the leading receiver heading into last week’s game. Tight end Darren Waller and wide receiver Hunter Renfrow have both gone over 400 receiving yards. Running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for 280 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 3.8 yards per carry.
Jacobs had 13 carries for 76 yards in the loss at New York last week. The Raiders signed wide receiver DeSean Jackson on Monday to add some depth to a group that will be without Ruggs on Sunday. They are facing a Kansas City defense that has had several solid weeks in a row, but it still ranks No. 26 in yards allowed per game (381.4).
Kansas City has only covered the spread in two of its last 10 games, while Las Vegas is 2-4 ATS in its last six games. The Raiders have gone ‘over’ the total in nine of their last 13 games, but Kansas City has gone ‘under’ in four of its last five games.
The pick: Kansas City -2.5
Kansas City might be the most difficult team to back in any sport right now, but there is too much value at -2.5 to go any other direction in this game. The Chiefs have dominated this series, winning eight of the last 10 games. Their defense has been stout over the last few weeks, which has generally been the weak point of this team. Kansas City has gone 16-4 in its last 20 road games and has a chance to get back to the top of the AFC West on Sunday night. Las Vegas has only picked up one win in its last six home games against the Chiefs. The loss of Ruggs was more impactful than most people expected last week, which was highlighted by the signing of Jackson earlier this week.