Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
Line: Philadelphia -2
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
When: Sunday, 9/15, at 8:20 p.m. ET
UPDATE: Since Blake filed this story on Friday, there’s been a slight adjustment to the side, with Philadelphia -1.5 or -1 as early Sunday afternoon.
Halfway through the third quarter in Week 1, the Philadelphia Eagles were down 17-0 to the Washington Redskins. The Eagles recovered with a 25-point second-half effort to dismiss the Redskins and move to 1-0 on the young season.
However, after Philadelphia went ahead of the number for the first time in the entire game on Jake Elliott’s 22-yard field goal to go up 32-20 as a 10-point home favorite, the Redskins posted the backdoor cover in a 32-27 loss on Case Keenum’s four-yard touchdown pass to Trey Quinn with six seconds remaining.
Philadelphia will likely need a more complete performance in Week 2, as the Eagles travel to Atlanta for a Sunday Night Football showdown with the Falcons.
Atlanta is coming off a disappointing 28-12 loss to the Minnesota Vikings in its opener. The Falcons were an NFL-worst 5-11 against the spread last season, and now they are off to a winless ATS mark this year.
Despite scoring just seven points in the first half, Philadelphia did show off its offensive weapons after intermission. Carson Wentz was 28-of-39 for 313 yards and three touchdowns.
The Eagles used a host of running backs, as Darren Sproles led the charge with nine carries for 47 yards. Jordan Howard rushed six times for 44 yards and Miles Sanders had 11 touches, but only racked up 25 yards.
The Falcons allowed Minnesota to rush for 172 yards and three touchdowns.
DeSean Jackson was electric—catching eight passes on 10 targets for 154 yards and two touchdowns. Tight end Zach Ertz caught five passes for 54 yards and Alshon Jeffery added five receptions for 49 yards and a touchdown.
Matt Ryan threw for 304 yards on a 33-of-46 effort, but a lot of those yards came at garbage time against the Vikings. Austin Hooper caught six passes for 77 yards and standout Julio Jones had six catches for 31 yards and a late touchdown.
Now, Atlanta is a home underdog due to the Week 1 performances from both teams. The Falcons have fared well in this role, going 7-1 ATS as home ‘dogs in their last eight games. Atlanta is also 9-1 ATS in its last two Week 2 games, which could signify quality adjustments—much like halftime changes.
Philadelphia owns a 17-13-1 advantage in the all-time regular season series in this rivalry, including an 18-12 win in their last meeting back in 2018.
The money has been all over the Eagles so far, with 61 percent of the tickets and 66 percent of the cash on Philadelphia, according to Pregame. Bettors are eyeing the ‘over’ as well, with 68 percent of the tickets and 74 percent of the cash expecting the game to have more than 52.5 points scored.
Philadelphia has dominated the spread in the head-to-head meetings between these two sides, going 13-4-1 ATS in the last 18 games. The Eagles have won and covered the last three against the Falcons.
The Pick: Atlanta +2
In the second half on Sunday, Philadelphia showed just how good it can be. However, the money coming in on this game seems to be too much of an overreaction to Atlanta laying an egg against the Vikings. The Falcons have proven to be profitable as home underdogs and in Week 2 of the season, so I’ll take the points.