Rodgers’ return to GB creates huge odds adjustments

Oddsmakers had makes lots of adjustments once Aaron Rodgers decided to return to Green Bay for the 2021 campaign.

Aaron Rodgers’ decision to show up for Green Bay’s opening practice on Tuesday created a shockwave in the betting market.

His discontentment with the organization led to him missing the entire offseason program and the loss of a $500,000 workout bonus after missing the mandatory minicamp last month. The Packers eventually voided the final year (2023) of his deal and agreed to review his contract situation after this season, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.

“I think he (Rodgers) deserves at least the conversation every year about where we’re headed, where he’s headed and to get together, and we’ll make decisions,” Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said Wednesday. “The club will always determine what’s best for the Green Bay Packers, but I think he’s earned the right to have those discussions.”

The news of Rodgers wanting to leave the organization initially surfaced during the NFL draft in April. Schefter reported that the reigning MVP was disgruntled and did not want to return for the 2021 season.

Additional news broke regarding several teams reaching out about a potential trade, including Denver and San Francisco. Offshore sportsbook BetOnline had listed Rodgers at -275 to take the first snap of the season with Green Bay, which appears to be on its way to cashing.

Now that it is all but certain the veteran signal caller will remain with the Packers, sportsbooks have had to adjust their futures markets. The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas moved Green Bay from 40/1 to 12/1 to win the Super Bowl and shifted them from 20/1 to 6/1 to win the NFC—those were the original numbers prior to the news in April.

Several bettors felt confident Rodgers would return to Green Bay. A DraftKings customer wagered $10,000 on the Packers to win the Super Bowl at 20/1 odds last week, according to VSiN’s Ben Fawkes. They would eventually shift to 35/1, but the number has dropped to 12/1 at DraftKings as well.

A bettor at the SuperBook got an even better price. He or she placed a $2,000 wager on Green Bay at 40/1 this past weekend, hoping to cash for more than $80,000 in February. There will likely be an excellent hedging opportunity in the playoffs, assuming Rodgers is on the field throughout the season.

The Packers are now completing a trade with Houston to snag wide receiver Randall Cobb, according to Schefter. The deal will reportedly become official once Rodgers’ revamped contract is official.

Cobb spent eight seasons with the Packers, catching 470 passes for 5,524 yards and 41 touchdowns. Trey Wingo said that Rodgers return “was dependent upon the acquisition of Cobb.”

Green Bay has not been the only team in the betting market effected by this saga. Denver’s handle ballooned when news broke that it was a potential destination for Rodgers.

There is plenty of money on the Broncos, as they are third in bets to win the Super Bowl and second in liability at BetMGM sportsbooks. Now that Rodgers has reported to Green Bay’s camp, Denver bettors are needing a career year from either Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock.

The Broncos opened with 65/1 odds to win the Super Bowl before dipping to 21/1 during the NFL draft news. They are now back up to 40/1, though.

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