Published on Jan. 29.
Updated on Wednesday, Jan. 31, at 11:58 a.m. Eastern.
Most betting shops opened the San Francisco 49ers (14-5 straight up, 9-10 against the spread) as two-point favorites vs. the Kansas City Chiefs for Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Feb. 11.
A few books like Circa opened the 49ers at -2.5, but nearly all spots were down to -1 about an hour after the opening numbers were released. The total opened at 48 points, but it was quickly adjusted to 47.5.
As of early Monday afternoon, the 49ers remained one-point favorites with a total of 47.5. For first-half wagers, the Westgate SuperBook had San Francisco as a one-half point favorite (for a +105 payout) with a total of 23.5.
By Wednesday morning, the 49ers were back up to -2 and the total was still 47.5 points. The Chiefs were +110 on the money line at most spots.
As of Wednesday (1/31/24), FanDuel had Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the +140 favorite to win Super Bowl LVIII MVP honors. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy had +200 odds, and the next-shortest odds belonged to 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (+450), KC tight end Travis Kelce (17/1), 49ers WR Deebo Samuel (33/1), KC RB Isiah Pacheco (35/1), 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk (45/1), KC WR Rashee Rice (70/1), 49ers TE George Kittle (70/1), 49ers EDGE Nick Bosa (100/1) and KC DT Chris Jones (140/1).
Fan Duel has Mahomes total for passing yards at 262.5 (-110 either way), and his number for TD passes is 1.5 (‘over’ -140, ‘under’ +114). The total for Purdy’s passing yards is 245.5 (-110 either way), and his TD passes has an ‘over/under’ of 1.5 (-110 either way)
With Sunday’s 17-10 win at Baltimore as a 4.5-point road underdog in the AFC Championship Game, Kansas City (14-6 SU, 12-8 ATS) improved to 10-1-1 ATS with nine outright wins in 12 games as an underdog during Mahomes’ career. The 27 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 44-point total to improve to 14-6 overall for the Chiefs.
Since losing 20-14 vs. Las Vegas on Christmas Day as an 11-point home favorite, Andy Reid’s squad has ripped off five consecutive wins both SU and ATS. After forcing a three and out on Baltimore’s opening drive, Kansas City went 86 yards on 10 plays and took a 7-0 lead on Mahomes’ 19-yard TD pass to Kelce, who made an outstanding one-handed catch on a back shoulder throw that was well defended by Baltimore safety Kyle Hamilton.
It was good defense by Hamilton, but better offense by Mahomes and Kelce.
The Ravens answered with a six-play, 75-yard drive that was capped by Lamar Jackson’s 30-yard TD pass to Zay Flowers. With the game tied at 7-7, Kansas City responded with a 16-play, 75-yard drive to go back in front 14-7 on Pacheco’s two-yard TD run.
With four seconds left in the first half, Kansas City extended its lead to 17-7 on Harrison Butker’s 52-yard field goal.
Baltimore’s defense put the Chiefs on lockdown in the second half, giving its offense chances galore to dig into the deficit. It appeared as if that was about to happen on the first play of the fourth quarter.
However, as Flowers took a short pass from Jackson on a second-and-eight play from KC’s 9 and looked like he was about to score, Kansas City CB L’Jarius Sneed made a spectacular play by forcing Flowers to fumble inches before crossing the plane for a TD.
Kansas City CB Trent McDuffie recovered the fumble in the end zone for a touchback. After the Chiefs got a pair of first downs, their drive stalled but punter Tommy Townsend buried the Ravens at their own 1 with a 47-yard punt.
Baltimore drove 75 yards on 12 plays and were facing a second-and-10 situation from KC’s 25. Jackson made his worst decision of the day next, forcing a throw into triple coverage to TE Isaiah Likely that was intercepted by the Chiefs’ Deon Bush.
The Ravens forced a three and out and then cut Kansas City’s lead to 17-10 with 2:34 remaining on Justin Tucker’s 43-yard field goal. With two timeouts left and the two-minute warning, Baltimore needed another three and out but couldn’t get it.
Two Baltimore penalties gave the Chiefs a quick first down. Then after the Ravens burned their final two timeouts, Kansas City was facing a third-and-nine play with 2:19 remaining. Mahomes found Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a 32-yard gain to put the game away.
Mahomes completed 30-of-39 throws for 241 yards and one TD without an interception, while Kelce had 11 receptions for 116 yards and one TD. Pacheco had 68 rushing yards and one TD on 24 attempts.
Jackson didn’t play well at all, but Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken didn’t do him any favors. On second and third-down plays, the Ravens inexplicably called 25 passes compared to only four run plays.
They gave their RBs merely six carries the entire game. There were very few roll-out passes or RPOs called, as Monken basically made Jackson a pocket passer for four quarters.
The decision Jackson made on the interception into triple coverage was unfathomable, but that wasn’t the only one. There were at least a half-dozen plays where he had clear running lanes to flee the pocket and get first downs running the ball.
For whatever reasons, he was hesitant with his decision-making and didn’t have a good feel for the game. Jackson connected on 20-of-37 passes for 272 yards and one TD with one interception. He had 54 rushing yards on eight attempts. Jackson committed a second turnover when he lost a fumble in the first half.
Kansas City Pro-Bowl offensive guard Joe Thuney is ‘doubtful’ for Super Bowl LVIII due to a torn pectoral muscle sustained in the win at Buffalo. LB Willie Gay, WR Kadarius Toney and WR Skyy Moore missed the AFC Championship Game and are ‘questionable’ vs. San Francisco.