Marshall: Week 4 NFL Trends

Bruce Marshall, formerly of The Gold Sheet, has been providing content and picks in the sports betting industry for decades. You can find his work weekly here at MajorWager, and you can find more of his picks and analysis at both VegasInsider and SportsLine.
DETROIT at GREEN BAY (Thursday, September 28).. Lions have now won and covered last three meetings. Detroit has covered 5-1 last six on road. Pack just 3-5 vs. spread at home since last season, but has started 3-0  vs. spread in 2023.  Tech edge-slight to Lions, based on team trends.
ATLANTA vs. JACKSONVILLE (at Wembley Stadium, London, England)… Home teams are 3-0 SU and vs line in Falcon games this season, and while this one is in London, ATL’s only spread covers this season have come at home.   Falcs also now “under” last five and six of last seven away since early last season.  Jags just the opposite this season, with road team covering in all of its 2023 games to date (and this one at Wembley, not in Florida), and have covered last five on road since late 2022.  J’ville still 7-3 vs. points since late 2022.  Tech edge-Jags and “under,”  based on recent trends
MIAMI at BUFFALO… Dolphins covered all three meetings last season (including wild card game) and are 7-1 vs. spread last eight against AFC East foes. Miami now six straight covers since late 2022,  and four straight covers as a dog. Bills 6-9 vs. spread since early 2022. Tech edge-Dolphins, based on team and series trends.
MINNESOTA at CAROLINA… Vikings on 1-7-1 spread skid since late 2022. Vikes also 4-1 “over” last five away.  Panthers have opened 0–2-1 vs. line and also 2-1 “under” to begin season. Tech edge-slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.
DENVER at CHICAGO…What to do? Broncos haven’t won outright as a visitor since 2021 November 7 at Dallas (won vs. Jags in neutral London last year). Bears have lost last 13 SU since mid 2022, 1-10 vs. spread last eleven on board.  Tech edge-slight to Broncos, based on team  trends.
BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND…  Even after Indy loss, Ravens 4-1 vs. line last five since late 202, though they failed to cover both vs. Browns last season. Cleve 4-7 vs. line since mid 2022 (but 2-1 this season), also “under” 8-2 last ten since late 2022.   Tech edge-“Under,”  based on “totals” trends.
PITTSBURGH at HOUSTON… Texans 2-6 vs. spread last eight as host, also 0-2 vs. poitns to begin this season for DeMeco Ryans. Steelers 7-2 vs. spread since late 2022, Pitt has also covered 5-1 last six away. Tech edge-Steelers, based on recent trends.
LA RAMS at INDIANAPOLIS... Rams 5-2-1 vs. spread since late 2022. Though if favored, note LA only 2-6 as chalk since late 2021. Colts “over” 2-1 for Shane Steichen and have covered last two in 2023. . Tech edge-slight to Rams and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS… “Unders” 4-1 last five reg season meetings. Saints on 9-1 “under” run since late 2022. Bucs on 8-5 “under” run, also 2-1 SU and vs. spread this season. Tech edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA… Wash has won outright 2 of last 3 at Linc. And even after Buffalo loss last week, Ron Rivera still 6-2-1 last nine as dog. Wash also “under” 13-4-1 since early 2022, though Birds have been “over” last seven reg season at home excluding the late-season games minus Hurts last season. Tech edge-slight to “over” and Washington, based on “totals” and team trends.
CINCINNATI at TENNESSEE… Wins and covers last two years for Bengals at Nashville. Even after Browns loss, Mike Vrabel has covered three of four after skidding minus Tannehll late last season. Cincy currently on 1-5-1 spread downturn after great success earlier vs. number, and 18-8-1 “under” since late 2021. Tech edge-slight to “under” and Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.
LAS VEGAS at LA CHARGERS…Home team has won and covered all four meetings since last season. Bolts “over” 5-0 since late 2022. Tech edge-Chargers and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.
NEW ENGLAND at DALLAS... Belichick 0-7 last seven as dog but did break a  6-game spread L streak last Sunday vs. Jets. Cowboys now on 7-2 spread uptick at home since early 2022.  Cowboys won wild shootout at Foxborough 35-29 in 2021. Tech edge- Cowboys, based on recent trends.
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO... Niners have now won 13 straight in reg season, 10-2-1 vs. line in those games., also won and covered both vs. Cards last year. Big red has covered first two for Jonathan Gannon.  Tech edge-Niners, based on recent trends.
KANSAS CITY at NY JETS...Chiefs “under” 5-2 last seven since late 2022, Jets on 12-3 “under” run since early 2022, also 1-6 vs. line last six since late 2022. Tech edge-“Under” and Chiefs, based on “totals” and team trends.
SEATTLE at NY GIANTS (Monday, October 2)…  Pete Carroll on 3-9 vs. spread since mid 2022 but has won and covered two in a row. G-Men no covers last four since late 2022, also 3-0-1 “over” last four at MetLife.  Tech edge-slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.