Marshall: Week 2 NFL Trends

Marshall: Week 2 NFL Trends
MINNESOTA at PHILADELPHIA (Thursday, September 14)... Birds won and covered over Vikes also in Week 2 last season (Monday night). Though 13-6 SU since last season, Minny only 7-11 vs. line, and 2-4 as dog.  Vikes also “over” 19-8 since mid 2021 despite “under” in opener vs Bucs.   Birds 8-3 vs. line at Linc last season including a couple of meaningless losses at end of reg season after top seed clinched in NFC. Tech edge-Eagles and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
LA CHARGERS at TENNESSEE…Bolts won close 17-14 verdict at SoFi in 2022, barely squeezing out  a  spread cover (-2.5) in process. Chargers 7-2 vs. line on reg season road last year, though only 6-6 as chalk since last term. Mike Vrabel 6-4 as dog since last season, 12-6 in role since 2021. Tenn also now on 17-7 “under” run since mid 2021. Tech edge-slight to Titans and “under,” based on extended and “totals” trends.
GREEN BAY at ATLANTA… Pack has now covered 5 of 6 since late last season, including wins and covers last three away. Falcs closed last season on 3-8 spread skid but did beat Panthers in opener.  Atlanta also 6-1 “under” since late 2022. Tech edge-slight to Pack and “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON… Colts now in the Steichen era but back to last season have dropped last four and nine of last twelve vs spread. Indy also “over” 6-1 last seven since late 2022. Texans covered both meetings last season but each has flipped coaching staffs and QBs since.  Tech edge-slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.
SEATTLE at DETROIT… Seahawks won 48-45 shootout at Ford Field last year. Seattle, however, has now dropped 9 of last 10 vs. spread after opening loss to Rams, while Lions have covered 10 of last 11 after opening Thursday win over Chiefs. Tech edge- Lions, based on recent trends.
CHICAGO at TAMPA BAY… Bucs closed last season just 2-6-1 last nine as chalk. Even with win over Vikes last week, Tampa Bay 5-13 vs. spread since a year ago. Bears however have now dropped 8 of last 9 vs. points after opening loss to Pack.  Chicago on 9-3 “over” run since early last season. Tech edge-slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.
LAS VEGAS at BUFFALO… Even with latest win at Denver, Raiders just 7-11 last 18 vs. spread on road. Raiders have also failed to cover last three in second of back-to-backs on road. Bills however dropped 6 of last 7 vs. spread as host a year ago, and just 4-9 last 13 vs. number after MNF loss to the J-Men.  Raiders 5-2 “under” last seven since late 2022, Bills “under” 12-7 since 2022. Tech edge-slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.
KANSAS CITY at JACKSONVILLE…Playoff rematch when Jags lost 27-20 but covered at Arrowhead.  Chiefs had earlier won in reg season by near-identical 27-17 score and managed narrow cover. J’ville has now won and covered 7 of 8 since late last season following win at Indy. KC only 4-8 vs. spread last 12 at Arrowhead. Tech edge- Jags, based on team trends.
BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI…Teams met three times last season including playoffs and dog covered each, as has been case in four of last five meetings. Cincy has now dropped 4 of last 5 vs spread since late last season, worst spread run since 2020. Ravens were 7-3 vs. line away last season and 4-0-1 as dog. Bengals also now on 17-7-1 “under” run since late 2021. Tech edge-Ravens and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
NY GIANTS at ARIZONA.. Gaints were 14-5 vs. spread for Brian Daboll a year ago before laying the big egg in 2023 opener vs. Cowboys. G-Men were 7-1 vs. spread away in reg season a year ago. Jonathan Gannon home debut for Big Red.  Tech edge-slight to Giants, based on team trends.
SAN FRANCISCO at LA RAMS…Niners controlling series lately, won 8 of last 9 outright, covered  eight of those nine meetings. Tech edge-Niners, based on series trends.
NY JETS at DALLAS…  With Packers, Aaron Rodgers was 8-2 vs. spread as dog the past two years. With him for only four snaps in the opener vs. the Bills, the J-Men also covered as a dog last Monday. Jets now also 13-6 “under” since late 2021. Cowboys now “under” five straight after opener vs. Giants. Tech edge-“Under, ”based on “totals” trends.
WASHINGTON at DENVER… Wash came into Denver two years ago and lost 17-10 to Vic Fangio’s Broncos. Denver now 24-11 “under” past two seasons (including 2021 vs Wash). After opener vs. Cards, Ron Rivera now on 14-5-1 “under” run since late 2021. Tech edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND... Belichick having problems lately vs Dolphins, who have covered last five vs Patriots. Belichick has now dropped last five and seven of last eight spread decisions since late 2021.  Miami has now covered last four since late 2022. Tech edge-Dolphins, based on series trends.
NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA (Monday, September 18)... Last five meetings “under” in series. Saints on 7-1 “under” run since late 2022. Tech edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH (Monday, September 18)... Steelers have covered 6 of last 7 in series. Browns now on 7-1 “under” run since late 2022, Steel “under” 10-3 last 13 at home. Steel has lost outright and failed to cover back-to-back home games once since 2013 (in early 2021).  Tech edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.