Marshall: Week 13 NFL Trends

Marshall: Week 13 NFL Trends
SEATTLE at DALLAS (Thursday, November 30)… Cowboys 8-3 vs. line this season, including 5-0 at home, where no win has been by fewer than 20 points.  Dallas also “over” 4-1 at Arlington, and 9-1 “over” last ten as host. Seahawks only 1-3-1 vs. spread last five this season, slowing down late in campaign as a year ago when 1-8 vs. spread down stretch.  Pete Carroll only 2-3 as dog this season.  Tech edge-Cowboys and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
LA CHARGERS at NEW ENGLAND… Bolts have lost and failed to cover three in a row this season and five of the last seven games. They’re also on a 7-1-1 “under’ run.  But they might not be the worst on this field vs. the 2-9 Patriots, who have lost and failed to cover sen of their last eight, Belichick also “under” last three and eight of last ten this season.  Tech edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
DETROIT at NEW ORLEANS…  Teams haven’t met since Covid 2020 season. Lions currently on first two-game spread skid since last October,  which is news after 16-3 vs. spread previously back to mid 2022.   Detroit is still 4-1 vs. spread away this season and 8-2 vs. spread last ten away. Lions also “over” 4-1 last five this season.  Meanwhile Saints have dropped four of last six outright and five of last six vs spread in 2023, and on 17-4 “under” run since mid 2022.  Tech edge-Lions and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
ATLANTA at NY JETS… Falcs won and covered last week vs. Saints but were just 1-8 vs. spread the preceding nine games.  ATL only 1-4 vs. spread away this season and 2-8 against spread on road since mid 2022.  Falcs also on 14-6 “under” run since mid 2022.  J-Men no covers last four, and 0-4-1 vs. spread last five, this season, also “under” 5-1 last six this term.  Tech edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
ARIZONA at PITTSBURGH…  Cards have covered four games vs. line this season that they’ve lost outright, they’re a representative 6-6 vs. spread despite 2-10 SU amrk. Az 2-1 vs. spread since Kyler Murray’s return, though only 1-4 vs. spread last five away. Big Red “over” 7-5 for Gannon in 2023 after “under” 8-3 last 11 a year ago. Steel on 8-1 “under” run into December and has won and covered four of last five at home.  Tech edge- “Under” and slight to Steelers, based on “totals” and team trends.
CAROLINA at TAMPA BAY… The post-Frank Reich era begins for Panthers, who responded positively to interim Steve Wilks last season.  Nowhere to go but up with Panthers 2-8-1 vs. spread this season and 1-5 vs. line away.  Carolina also “under” last five in 2023, failing to score more than 15 in that stretch. Bucs have hit skids losing six of last seven outright, also on 7-2 “under” run. TB, however, has covered four of last five, slipping inside of several spreads in losing efforts.  Note the Brady Bucs were 5-1 SU and vs. line against panthers the past three years. Tech edge-“Under” and slight to Bucs, based on “totals” and team trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at TENNESSEE… Colts won and covered first meeting 23-16 back on Oct 8 at Lucas Oil, after Titans had won and covered the previous five meetings.   Only Titans wins and covers since topping Cincy on Oct 1 have been at home vs. AFC South Falcons and Panthers. (0-5 in the other games).  Tenn also on 7-2 “under” run, though Colts “over” 7-4 this season. Indy has also won and covered three straight exiting November.  Tech edge-Colts and slight to “under,” based on recent and “totals” trends.
MIAMI at WASHINGTON…  After hot start, Dolphins only 5-3 SU and 4-4 vs. line into December.   Miami also 1-3 SU and vs. line last four away from Hard Rock. Wash however has dropped three straight and five of last six outright, also on 6-3 “over” run out of November.  Ron Rivera also 0-4-1 vs. spread at FedEx Field this season.  Tech edge-Miami and slight to “over,” based on recent and “totals” trends.
DENVER at HOUSTON… Broncos have won five straight (4-1 vs. line those games) into December. and covered last five this season and six straight covers into December.  Broncos were also “under” five straight prior to last week vs. Browns.  Despite contending, Texans only 1-4 vs. spread last five this season as well as “under” 6-2 last eight. Houston has failed to cover last three at NRG as well.  Tech edge-Broncos and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
SAN FRANCISCO at PHILADELPHIA… Rematch of NFL title game won by Birds 31-7 when Niners ran out of QBs.  SF has won and covered last three (counts TB as a win on Nov 19) this term and now 7-3-1 vs. number this season, now on 16-5-1 spread run since mid 2022. SF 7-3-1 vs. line last 11 away reg season.   Birds 10-1 SU and 8-1-2 vs. points this season, also 4-1 “over” at Linc in 2023.  Tech edge-slight to “over,” based on “totals’ trends.
CLEVELAND at LA RAMS… QB-shy Browns had won and covered three in a row before loss at Denver.  Even without Deshaun for much of season, Cleveland still 5-0 “over” as visitor in 2023.  Rams have won back-to-back games for first time this season but had dropped previous four and five of six vs. spread prior to beating Cards last week.  LA only 1-3-1 vs. spread at home this season, and “under” four straight at So Fi.  Tech edge-slight to Rams, Based on recent trends.
KANSAS CITY at GREEN BAY…  Super Bowl I rematch!  Chiefs were on 5-0-1 “under” run prior to Raiders game last week.  KC 7-3 vs. line since opening night loss to Lions but has dropped two of last four outright this season. Pack stirring a bit with wins and covers in last two and five of last six, all following four-game skid into the end of October.  GB “under” 5-2 lasts even this season as well.  Tech edge-slight to “under” and Packers, based on “totals’ and recent trends.
CINCINNATI at JACKSONVILLE (Monday, December 4)… Bengals have now lost and failed to cover last three and minus Burrow for the last one-and-a half of those games. Cincy had won and covered four straight prior in what has been a streaky season (Bengals dropped first four vs. line).  Meanwhile Jags have won and covered seven of last eight this season, and on1 4-4 spread uptick since late 2022.  Tech edge-Jags, based on team trends.