Marshall: Week 11 NFL Trends

Marshall: Week 11 NFL Trends
CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE (Thursday, November 16)… Note Lamar Jackson is 7-1 SU in his career vs. Bengals.  Visiting team, however, covered all three meetings last season (Jackson missed the last two games at Cincy, including wild card round).  Before losing to Texans, Bengals had won and covered four in a row this campaign. Tech edge-slight to Bengals, based on series trends.
PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND… Steel won and covered 26-22 back on Sept. 18.  Home team has won and covered last four meetings (Pitt 3-1 in those). Steel had been “under” six in a row this season before last Sunday vs. Packers. Pitt has only played three times on road this season (2-1 SU and vs. line in those games). Mike Tomlin 4-1 last five as dog this season, 17-9 getting points since early 2019. Brownies 4-1 SU and vs. line at home this season (4-0 with QBs other than DTR).  Tech edge-slight to Browns, based on team trends.
ARIZONA at HOUSTON… Cards now 1-0 SU and vs. line with Kyler Murray this season. Big Red had lost six in a row SU prior, 1-5 vs. spread in those games. Minus Murray, Cards 0-4 S and vs. line last four away.  Texans 5-2 SU and vs. line last seven this season, also “over” last two after “under” preceding four games.  Tech edge-Texans, based on recent trends.
LA CHARGERS at GREEN BAY… Bolts were actually “under” 5-0-1 into last week’s game vs. Lions that flew “over” at So Fi. Chargers are 9-5 vs. spread away since last season. Pack had been “under” five straight into last week vs. Steelers. Green Bay just 1-5 SU and vs. line last six this season. Tech edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON… G-Men won first meeting 14-7 at MetLife on October 22. NY actually 5-1 vs. spread last six in series.  Giants were also “under” seven in a row before last Sunday vs. Cowboys. But G-Men now 2-9 SU and 2-8-1 vs. points since late 2022.  Wash 0-4 vs. spread as host this season.  “Unders” 3-0-1 last four in series. Tech edge-“Under,” based on “totals” trends.
TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE… Prior to winning both meetings last season, Jags had dropped five in a row SU vs. Titans. Tenn only 1-4 SU and vs. line last five this season, also “under” 6-1 last seven after Bucs last week. J’ville had won and covered five in a row prior to 49ers loss last week, Jags also 4-2 “under” last six this season.  Tech edge- “Under” and Jaguars, based on “totals” and recent trends.
CHICAGO at DETROIT… Lions won and covered both meetings last season.  After slow 0-4 start this season, Bears 3-3 SU and 3-2-1 vs. line last six.  Chicago also “under” three of last four in 2023. Detroit 7-2 SU and vs. line this season, now on 16-3 spread uptick since mid 2022. Tech edge-Lions, based on recent trends.
LAS VEGAS at MIAMI… Raiders no wins or covers last four away this season, as home side has won and covered last seven Vegas games.  Raiders also “under” last three and seven of last eight this season. After quick start, Dolphins just 3-3 SU and vs. line last six this season.   Tech edge-Dolphins and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
DALLAS at CAROLINA… Cowboys only 2-3 SU and vs. line away this season compared to 4-0 at home. Dallas “over” last three and six of last eight this campaign. Panthers 1-3 SU, and 1-2-1 vs. line at home this season.  Overall, just 1-6-2 vs. spread in 2023, also “under” last three as well as all four at Charlotte. Tech edge-Cowboys and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
TAMPA BAY at SAN FRANCISCO… Before and after that puzzling 3-game slump, Niners are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 vs. line this season, and still 13-4 vs. spread in reg season since mid 2022. Bucs were one of the victims (35-7 in Purdy debut) last December 11. Tampa Bay has covered all four on road this season and also 6-1 “under” last seven in 2023.  Tech edge-slight to Niners and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.
SEATTLE at LA RAMS… Sean McVay has generally done well vs. pee Carroll, won opener this season at Seattle, and now six straight covers vs. Seahawks. Rams however have lost and failed to cover last three this season, also “under” 4-1 last five.  Seattle had been “under” four of five in front of last week’s “over” vs. Washington.  Tech edge-slight to Rams and “under,” based on series and “totals” trends.
NY JETS at BUFFALO…Bills got stunned in OT on Monday Night opener at MetLife and have now failed to cover last three vs J-Men.  Buffalo also no covers last six this season after loss to Broncos on Monday, also “under” 5-1 last six in 2023. Last four “under” in series. Jets working on four straight “unders” this season.  Tech edge-“Under” and slight to Jets, based on “totals” and team trends.
MINNESOTA at DENVER… Vikes have won and covered five in a row this season, also “over” last two with Josh Dobbs at QB after “under” previous six. Minn 4-0-1 vs. spread away this season.  Broncos have now won and covered last three in 2023 and “under” last four.  Tech edge-slight to Vikings, based on recent trends.
PHILADELPHIA at KANSAS CITY (Monday, November 20)… Super Bowl rematch!  Birds 5-2-2 vs. spread this season, also 4-1 SU, 3-1-1- vs. spread away.  Chiefs 7-1 SU, 6-2 vs. line last eight this season, also on 4-0-1 “under” run.  Tech edge-slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.